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Storm Brendan - Monday 13th January 2020

Issued Sunday noon, 12th January, 2020 by Evelyn Cusack, Head of Forecasting & Eoin Sherlock, Head of Flood Forecasting.

Storm Brendan will affect Ireland tomorrow, Monday, 13th January bringing stormy conditions, heavy rain and high seas. Expect disruption to travel and possible localised flooding especially in coastal areas. There may also be some localised structural damage and trees uprooted.

Storm Brendan is currently off the east coast of Canada (991hPa), Figure 1, and is forecast to track eastwards across the Atlantic undergoing rapid cyclogenesis as it engages with a very strong Jet Stream. Rapid cyclogenesis is defined as a depression deepening 24hPa in 24-hours but Brendan is forecast to deepen by about 50hPa in 24-hours, Figure 2.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 2

The following 6 images are from Met Éireann’s high resolution Harmonie forecast model. The images display the evolution of the forecast wind speeds as Storm Brendan approaches, crosses and clears away from Ireland.

The strongest winds will be initially along the west coast early on Monday morning before they spread countrywide during the morning affecting eastern counties around midday into the early afternoon. Disruption to travel and localised structural damage is possible as these winds affect the country.

During the afternoon a second core of extremely strong winds will affect parts of the west and northwest. Gusts are likely to exceed 130 km/h during the afternoon in exposed areas and along the coasts.

We are also in a period of Spring Tides. Storm Brendan will produce significant storm surges and the combination of these high Spring Tides, onshore storm force winds and storm surge will lead to a risk of flooding along all coasts. There is a significant risk to the south, west and northwest coasts with an elevated risk for all eastern coastal areas due to the high tides and the projected storm surge forecast.

The final figure displays the projected significant wave height for Monday evening. Offshore wave heights of up to 14 metres are forecast with high or very high seas forecast along all coastal waters. Met Éireann has issued a Status Red Marine warning for winds reaching violent storm force 11 in the west.

 

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart - Mon

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart – Mon 06z

 

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart - Mon09z

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart – Mon09z

 

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart - Mon12z

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart – Mon12z

 

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart - Mon15z

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart – Mon15z

 

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart - Mon18z

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart – Mon18z

 

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart - Mon21z

HARMONIE wind and warning isotach chart – Mon21z

 

ECMWF /Wave Ireland Significant wave height chart - Mon 18z

ECMWF /Wave Ireland Significant wave height chart – Mon 18z

Please keep up to date at www.met.ie for warnings and forecasts for your area.

Heed the advice of the local authorities, the Gardaí and the HSE.

You can access our forecast products via these links:

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlantic-charts/precipitation-pressure

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/marine-inland-lakes/waves

 

At this link you can view the latest weather observations:

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations

 

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