Unsettled for the Easter Weekend but uncertainty in the details
Introduction
After a largely drier than average week, conditions are set to deteriorate with spells of wet, windy, and possibly stormy weather expected. A weather advisory has been issued due to the potential for disruptive weather, combined with increased exposure as people head out for the extended Easter weekend, and with a period of Spring tides. Strong onshore winds combined with high waves may lead to wave overtopping and flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas. There is uncertainty in the details at present so Met Éireann will continue to monitor the situation and issue updated guidance as and when certainties increase.
Synoptic Setup
A series of low-pressure systems is tracking near Ireland and the United Kingdom, deepening as they do so. The Jet Stream is set to strengthen and move over the country, fuelled by the increased contrast in temperatures from cold air sinking down from the northwest and meeting the milder air to the southwest. The uncertainties arise as these features have not yet developed and with even a small difference in their positioning will determine how rapidly they develop and how strong their associated winds will be.
Figure 1 ECMWF model showing strong temperature gradient
Figure 2 ECMWF model showing strengthening Jet over Ireland
Friday, April 3rd (Good Friday)
Current indications suggest it will turn windy, especially later in the morning and early afternoon, as a developing depression tracks over the country. Current guidance suggests the system will not undergo rapid deepening, but it could still bring some strong winds along with showery outbreaks of rain.
Figure 3 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Friday
Figure 4 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Friday
Saturday, April 4th
A wet and windy day with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with spot flooding possible. There is the potential for some very strong south-westerly winds to occur later in the day, most likely for western and northwestern parts. High astronomical tides (Spring Tides) coinciding with storm surge and persistent onshore winds will further increase the risk of coastal flooding. Areas along the west and north coasts are particularly vulnerable.
Figure 5 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Saturday
Figure 6 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Saturday
Sunday, April 5th (Easter Sunday)
A breezy and showery day. Cooler too and some of the showers will fall as sleet, mainly in the west and north, with the chance of some falls of snow on high ground. Strong onshore winds early on Sunday morning, combined with high waves may lead to wave overtopping and flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas.
Figure 7 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Sunday
Figure 8 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Sunday
Monday, April 6th
Potentially another windy day but current indications suggest that the worst of the wind and rain will stay offshore.
Figure 9 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Monday
Figure 10 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Monday
Public Safety Messages
Monitor Met Éireann forecasts and/or visit https://www.met.ie/ for the most up to date information. Information is available across social media platforms and other news media sources
Coastal flooding is likely, especially around high tide times and in exposed, low-lying locations along the Atlantic coastal counties
High astronomical tides (Spring Tides) coinciding with storm surge and persistent onshore winds will further increase the risk of coastal flooding. Areas along the west and north coasts are particularly vulnerable
Strong onshore winds combined with high waves may lead to wave overtopping and flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas
People travelling long journeys check weather/ road conditions, not just where they are starting from, but at their destination and along the route, as conditions may vary significantly
ESB Emergency Services can be contacted at 1800 372 999. The public can monitor PowerCheck.ie
Unsettled for the Easter Weekend but uncertainty in the details
Introduction
After a largely drier than average week, conditions are set to deteriorate with spells of wet, windy, and possibly stormy weather expected. A weather advisory has been issued due to the potential for disruptive weather, combined with increased exposure as people head out for the extended Easter weekend, and with a period of Spring tides. Strong onshore winds combined with high waves may lead to wave overtopping and flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas. There is uncertainty in the details at present so Met Éireann will continue to monitor the situation and issue updated guidance as and when certainties increase.
Synoptic Setup
A series of low-pressure systems is tracking near Ireland and the United Kingdom, deepening as they do so. The Jet Stream is set to strengthen and move over the country, fuelled by the increased contrast in temperatures from cold air sinking down from the northwest and meeting the milder air to the southwest. The uncertainties arise as these features have not yet developed and with even a small difference in their positioning will determine how rapidly they develop and how strong their associated winds will be.
Figure 1 ECMWF model showing strong temperature gradient
Figure 2 ECMWF model showing strengthening Jet over Ireland
Friday, April 3rd (Good Friday)
Current indications suggest it will turn windy, especially later in the morning and early afternoon, as a developing depression tracks over the country. Current guidance suggests the system will not undergo rapid deepening, but it could still bring some strong winds along with showery outbreaks of rain.
Figure 3 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Friday
Figure 4 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Friday
Saturday, April 4th
A wet and windy day with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with spot flooding possible. There is the potential for some very strong south-westerly winds to occur later in the day, most likely for western and northwestern parts. High astronomical tides (Spring Tides) coinciding with storm surge and persistent onshore winds will further increase the risk of coastal flooding. Areas along the west and north coasts are particularly vulnerable.
Figure 5 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Saturday
Figure 6 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Saturday
Sunday, April 5th (Easter Sunday)
A breezy and showery day. Cooler too and some of the showers will fall as sleet, mainly in the west and north, with the chance of some falls of snow on high ground. Strong onshore winds early on Sunday morning, combined with high waves may lead to wave overtopping and flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas.
Figure 7 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Sunday
Figure 8 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Sunday
Monday, April 6th
Potentially another windy day but current indications suggest that the worst of the wind and rain will stay offshore.
Figure 9 ECMWF model showing predicted wind speeds for Monday
Figure 10 ECMWF model showing predicted precipitation for Monday
Public Safety Messages
Eolas Fúinn