Verification

Surface Weather Observations – Availability and timeliness

A significant part of Met Éireann’s activities involves making high quality traceable weather observations.

Every hour current weather reports from Met Éireann weather stations are distributed internationally where they are joined with thousands of similar observations from around the world. Collecting all of these (and other types of observations) together gives a global snapshot of the current state of the atmosphere. This snapshot can be used by forecasters and numerical weather prediction models as the starting point in assessing how weather patterns are likely to develop.

Building a database of quality controlled weather observations is also an essential element for facilitating the study of past and future climates.

The graphs below show Met Éireann’s performance related to the international availability of Irish weather observations as well as the timeliness of these observations.

Sometimes not all hourly weather observations are available for all Irish stations. While malfunctions are rare, stations are routinely taken off line to allow for servicing, calibrating and upgrading. This can result in dips in the availability performance as seen in the graph above.

 

Availability and timeliness statistics are monitored and compiled by EUCOS (EUMETNET Composite Observing System).
The European targets in the graphs above are also set by EUCOS.

Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts from our operational HARMONIE-AROME  model are routinely compared with observations from our weather stations  (shown in the map below). This allows us to assess the accuracy of our forecasts, and helps to guide model research and development.

Met Éireann's Synoptic Weather Observation Stations

Met Éireann’s Synoptic Weather Observation Stations

The verification plots below show the monthly accuracy of our next-day forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature. The forecast data comes from our HARMONIE-AROME model, which is then used to generate the point forecasts appearing on our website and mobile app.

Accuracy of maximum temperature forecasts.

Accuracy of maximum temperature forecasts.

Accuracy of minimum temperature forecasts. The temperature graphs above are based on a running 12-month average and show the accuracy when the next-day forecast temperatures are within +/- 2C of the observed temperatures.

Accuracy of minimum temperature forecasts. The temperature graphs above are based on a running 12-month average and show the accuracy when the next-day forecast temperatures are within +/- 2C of the observed temperatures.