Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2022
Week 1 (Friday 30 September to Thursday 06 October)
An unsettled period for Week 1 with low pressure systems tracking near Ireland in a southwesterly airflow bringing spells of wet weather. Higher pressure will trend to the south of Ireland. Rainfall amounts this week will be above average, with highest amounts in the west and northwest. Rainfall warnings are possible. Temperatures will trend a degree or two higher than the seasonal norm.
Week 2 (Friday 07 October to Thursday 13 October)
Week 2 is indicating that high pressure will trend to the west of Ireland, resulting in a more settled week with lower than average rainfall in all areas. Cooler conditions are likely on average this week in a northerly airflow, with temperatures predicted to be average for the time of year.
Week 3 (Friday 14 October to Thursday 20 October)
A more changeable and unsettled week is likely for Week 3 with a mainly westerly airflow signalled which would introduce fronts or low pressure systems towards Ireland from the Atlantic. Warnings can not be ruled out. There is a signal for normal to above normal rainfall, with highest totals likely in western and northwestern areas. Temperatures overall this week will likely be near average or slightly above.
Week 4 (Friday 21 October to Thursday 27 October)
For Week 4, there is no strong signal for either low pressure or high pressure to be dominant, which indicates that the week will bring a mix of settled and unsettled periods. Confidence is low, but there is a weak signal for this week to be drier overall than Week 3. Temperatures signalled to be slightly above average.