The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 17 FEBRUARY 2026
Week 1 – Monday 23rd February to Sunday 01st March
The general trend during this period is for low pressure focussed to the north and north-east of Ireland with higher pressures over southwestern and southern parts of Europe. This indicates changeable conditions with Atlantic low pressure systems bringing occasional spells of wet and windy weather over Ireland. Most places will likely see spells of rain with higher than average precipitation forecasted overall, but the heaviest rain looks more focussed in the west and southwest than in the east. Temperatures are expected to trend near or above average.
Week 2 – Monday 02nd March to Sunday 08th March
There is no clear preference for high or low pressure during the first week of March which would indicate climatologically normal conditions are most probable. So a continuation of changeable conditions with spells of wet and windy interspersed with drier and brighter intervals and showers. Near average temperatures are expected with slightly wetter than normal conditions in the west and north and near average conditions in the south and east.
Week 3 – Monday 09th March to Sunday 15th March
There is no clear preference for high or low pressure during this period either, so once again climatologically normal “changeable” conditions look most probable to prevail. There is a weak signal for drier than normal conditions which might be indicative of a slight bias towards high pressure. Temperatures are forecast to be near normal.
Week 4 – Monday 16th March to Sunday 22nd March
There is a weak signal for low pressure to be dominant during this period with slightly wetter than average conditions and near normal temperatures.
Seasonal Outlook for March, April and May (MAM)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MAM period is for above average temperatures. There is potential for wetter than average conditions through the three months, particularly in March.
Mean temperatures during MAM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through the period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain but there is potential for wetter than average conditions through MAM. There is a signal for wetter than normal conditions in March with potential then for both wetter and drier than normal conditions through April and May.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during MAM, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal during May.