The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 27 JANUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 02 February to Sunday 08 February)
Week 1 is indicating a strong signal for low pressure to the southwest to dominate conditions for the first week of February. This will result in mixed conditions with higher than average rainfall across most of the country except for parts of the west and northwest which will see below average rainfall. Mean air temperatures are expected to be normal for the time of year.
Week 2 (Monday 09 February to Sunday 15 February)
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a signal for unsettled conditions to continue with low pressure centred to the south of Ireland. Precipitation anomalies are expected to be below average for most for the time of year, with the exception of the south and southeast, where there is a signal for higher than average precipitation amounts. Temperatures are expected to be below average for week 2.
Week 3 (Monday 16 February to Sunday 22 February)
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. The signal remains for low pressure to stick around bringing a continuation of unsettled conditions. Wetter than average conditions are signalled for most of the country with the exception of the very northwest which will signals average or slightly below for the time of year. Mean air temperatures are likely to be average or slightly below for the time of year.
Week 4 (Monday 23 February to Sunday 01 March)
In week 4 the forecast confidence is low. Very little change is indicated this week as low pressure continues to be signalled in the mid-Atlantic. Again, wetter than average conditions are signalled for most areas apart from the northwest. Temperatures are signalling average temperatures for the time of year.
Seasonal Outlook for February March April 2026 (FMA):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the FMA period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain, but there is a signal for wetter than average spells of weather, particularly in February.
Mean temperatures during FMA are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods are likely to still occur, especially during February.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall. This signal is strongest in February, indicating the potential for a wet end to meteorological winter. A slight signal for drier conditions increases by April. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of FMA.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.