The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Forecast issued Tuesday, 10th of March 2026
Week 1 – Monday 16th March to Sunday 22nd March
Week one will bring largely unsettled conditions with a mobile Atlantic flow dominating. As a result, rainfall totals will be higher than usual pretty much nationwide. Parts of the East and Southeast however, could see more seasonal accumulations. Mean air temperatures are indicated to be close to average across the country, mildest across eastern counties. High pressure may attempt to build from the southwest with some drier days potentially indicated later in the period.
Week 2 – Monday 23rd March to Sunday 29th March
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 2. However, there is a signal that conditions will become more settled. Drier than usual conditions may develop, as well as milder than usual temperatures values. Much like week one, the best values are likely across the eastern half of the country.
Week 3 – Monday 30th March to Sunday 05th April
In week 3, the forecast confidence is lower. There is a sign though that high pressure may largely dominate, bringing generally settled conditions. Mean air temperatures are signalled to remain around average with a continuation of the trend for lower than average rainfall amounts too.
Week 4 – Monday 06th April to Sunday 12th April
Confidence decreases further for week 4 with no clear trend for low or high pressure dominance. That said, low pressure may develop across mainland Europe with the driest conditions across Atlantic counties.
Seasonal Outlook for March, April and May (MAM)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MAM period is for above average temperatures. There is potential for wetter than average conditions through the three months, particularly in March.
Mean temperatures during MAM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through the period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain but there is potential for wetter than average conditions through MAM. There is a signal for wetter than normal conditions in March with potential then for both wetter and drier than normal conditions through April and May.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during MAM, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal during May.