The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 23 APRIL 2024
Week 1 (Monday 29 April to Sunday 05 May)
Ireland’s weather looks set to be rather changeable and showery as we move into the early days of May. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be above average, especially across the east of the country. After the recent fairly dry conditions, rainfall totals are predicted to be above normal, especially in the south.
Week 2 (Monday 06 May to Sunday 12 May)
There is a trend in the forecast at Week 2 for more settled weather conditions than the preceding week with more high-pressure dominance over Ireland. Mean air temperatures are expected to be around or slightly above the climatological average. Current indications are that it will be drier than normal across most the country.
Week 3 (Monday 13 May to Sunday 19 May)
At forecast Week 3 and into the middle days of May, Ireland looks set to lie between areas of high and low pressure which will result in generally mixed and changeable weather conditions. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be close to or slightly above the climatological mean. Rainfall amounts are currently predicted to be below normal across Ireland.
Week 4 (Monday 20 May to Sunday 26 May)
At Week 4, there is very little trend in the forecast with equal likelihood of settled or unsettled weather conditions. Mean air temperatures are more likely to be above normal whilst current indications are for rainfall totals to be around or slightly below the climatological average.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY, JUNE AND JULY 2024 (MJJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MJJ period is for above average temperatures while rainfall is likely to be close to average.
Mean temperatures during MJJ are signalled to be above average overall, with temperatures during all three months likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The highest chance of above average temperatures will be in the east and southeast.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with the potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months, leading to near average rainfall.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during MJJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. The highest anomalies are expected in the Irish Sea.