Storm Agnes has been named by the UK Met Office on the morning of Monday September 25th. This significant weather event is due to make land fall over Ireland on Wednesday September 27th. Ahead of its arrival Met Éireann have issued a number of wind and rainfall warnings across counties in Leinster, and Munster. The UK Met Office have also issued warnings for Ulster.
This developing storm is currently out in the mid-Atlantic. Our latest analysis chart shows the weather system in its infant stage.
The infra-red satellite image from 12Z on Monday the 25th of September shows the large mass of cloud which will eventually develop into Storm Agnes.
Over the next few hours and days this developing area of low pressure will be taken up by the jet stream and undergo rapid deepening.
Shown below is the jet stream prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) model. Highlighted in blue is Storm Agnes modelled at 12Z today September the 25th.
Moving on another 24 hrs to 12Z on Tuesday September the 26th we can see the low has moved across the Atlantic, being taken up by the jet stream. It has also been deepened significantly.
Looking ahead to 06Z on Wednesday the 27th of September, the day the storm will make landfall, we can see how the low pressure has transitioned to the northern side of the jet stream and undergone further deepening.
Storm Agnes is likely to make landfall late Wednesday morning and for now a number of weather warnings have been issued in response. These warnings are likely to be updated as further modelling data becomes available.
Currently, the strongest winds are forecast to impact the south and south-east of the country. However, the latest guidance from our high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS, demonstrates the current uncertainty in the exact track of Storm Agnes.
Each dot in the image above shows where an individual forecast from IREPS has forecast the centre of the cyclone to track over Ireland. As we move closer to the event, IREPS will be able to give more certainty with regards to the exact track of Storm Agnes.
We are monitoring the development of this storm closely and further updates to our warnings will be issued. Please keep up to date with the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
After a very wet and unsettled July and August, fine and largely settled conditions have returned for the first week of September.
These warm conditions are due to an area of low pressure to the west of the Iberia which, coupled with high pressure over Scandinavia is advecting warm and humid air over Ireland.
Fig 1: ECMWF Airmass Temperatures for the rest of the week (850mb Wet Bult Potential Temperature)
Meteorologist with Met Éireann Emer Flood explains, “High pressure looks set to dominate our weather for the rest of the week bringing generally fine and settled conditions. Daytime temperatures will reach into the early 20s for much of the country, with parts of the south midlands reaching 25°C or above. These warm daytime temperatures will be coupled with nighttime temperatures not dropping any lower than the early teens leading to some uncomfortable sleeping conditions in the coming days.
Fig 2: Harmonie Maximum and Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday (6th of September)
Last night a minimum temperature of 20.7°C was recorded at Valentia, which is provisionally the first recorded tropical night of the year.
Climatologist with Met Éireann Dr. Sandra Spillane states, “We recorded temperatures greater than 25.0°C at a number of our stations yesterday (Monday the 5th of September) so we’ll be keeping a close eye on temperatures over the coming days to see if heatwave criteria are reached”.
A heatwave occurs at a Met Éireann station when the daily maximum shaded air temperature is greater than twenty-five degrees Celsius (> 25.0°C) for five or more consecutive days. More information on hot weather conditions can be found in our Summer Centre.
So will the fine weather stay with us for the weekend?
Emer continues, “While many areas will see fine and dry weather right out the weekend, there will be showers at times, in the west on Wednesday, but further east towards the end of the week with the chance of some thundery downpours.”
“The models are showing a breakdown to cooler and more unsettled weather early next week although there is still a lot of uncertainty at this stage”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For advice on how to stay safe in fine weather, check Be Summer-Ready.
Storm Betty is rapidly developing to the south of Ireland and will impact the country through the rest of the day and overnight. Very strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected, with Cork, Waterford, Tipperary, Wexford, Kilkenny, Carlow and Wicklow likely to get the brunt of Storm Betty winds and rain with south to southwest gales and severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. An Orange wind warning will be in effect from 9pm Friday the 18th until 3am on Saturday the 19th There is also a status orange rainfall warning for the same counties currently in effect and which will last until 11pm on Friday.
The rain will precede the wind through this afternoon and evening with the potential for some high accumulations over a short period of time likely to lead to localised flooding. There is likely to be some wave overtopping along south, south-eastern and eastern coasts also.
Further status yellow wind warnings will come into effect for Munster and Leinster later today. The UK Met Office has also issued a status yellow wind warning for Down and Antrim from this evening. Further counties may be increased to Orange level in the coming hours so please keep in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings.
Status yellow rainfall warnings are in effect for the entire country. The UK Met Office have also issued status yellow rainfall warnings for Northern Ireland.
Potential impacts especially within the orange warning areas are: Structural damage, falling trees, travel disruption, power outages, localised flooding, wave overtopping.
*Update at 5pm on Friday: A Status Red – Marine Storm warning has been issued from Carnsore Point to Dungarvan to Mizen Head as southeast winds, veering southwesterly increasing to storm force 10, and occasionally violent storm force 11 for a time on Irish coastal waters.
An unseasonably strong jet streak (a more intense area of winds embedded in the jet stream) is currently helping to rapidly intensify Storm Betty to the south of Ireland. Storm Betty will track up across the country today (Friday 18th) and overnight before weakening and clearing away to the north on Saturday morning (19th).
As the very strong winds are unseasonable and trees are in full leaf, very difficult travelling conditions are expected. Whether in the yellow or orange warning areas, temporary structures should be secured adequately. The strong winds will also provide a danger to high sided vehicles.
As Storm Betty is rapidly developing, further warnings may be issued in the coming hours and close monitoring of the situation is advised.
Wet and windy weather will develop on Friday night and early on Saturday as a low pressure system sweeps across Ireland.
After a dry start on Friday, outbreaks of heavy rain will spread across the country later in the day and overnight with strong and gusty northwesterly winds developing, alongside gales on southern and western coasts.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy commented that “A low pressure system will approach the country on Friday and that will drive outbreaks of rain eastwards across us Friday evening and night. That rain will turn heavy in places overnight and on Saturday morning, which could lead to spot flooding. The low pressure system will also bring strong and gusty northwest winds, especially in the southwest and south.”
There is still uncertainty around the track of this low and the exact areas that will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain.
Aoife explained “Despite the uncertainty in the low’s exact trajectory, we do know that it will be unseasonably wet and windy. The combination of those strong winds and heavy rain could lead to some difficult travelling conditions and impact any outdoor events on Friday night and Saturday morning, particularly anyone attending festivals and sleeping in tents or temporary structures. Due to trees being in full leaf and the ground being waterlogged from record rainfall during the month of July, there is a risk of some fallen trees in those areas with the strongest winds.”
The low pressure system will gradually move into the Irish Sea on Saturday, with scattered showers following from the northwest.
“That low will clear to the east on Saturday afternoon, and a mix of sunshine and showers will follow for later Saturday and Sunday. It’ll be a brighter day on Sunday with more in the way of dry spells.” continued Aoife.
Sunday is looking like the best day of the weekend – another low pressure system will cross the country on Monday, bringing further rainfall.
Aoife says “With the unseasonable weather expected over the weekend, especially with more people on the move for the bank holiday, we ask people to keep an eye on the forecast and any possible warnings for their area at www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app.”
Extreme and dangerous heat has been impacting many parts of the northern hemisphere, including Mediterranean countries where air temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above average. The heatwave is set to continue this week with record breaking temperatures forecast. In contrast, Ireland is experiencing unsettled weather with temperatures on the cool side, near or below the July average.
Why is there such a difference? Met Éireann meteorologist Linda Hughes explains “The main contributing factor is the position of the jet stream relative to Ireland. The jet stream is a band of very strong winds located around 9 or 10km above the surface of the earth which can meander to the north or south of Ireland. At the moment the jet stream is positioned to the south (Fig.1), which is placing Ireland in a cool airmass and a mainly west to northwest airflow (Fig.2)”.
Fig1: Jet stream at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
Fig 2: Wet-bulb potential temperature at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
A blocking area of high pressure is affecting southern Europe, which is inhibiting cloud formation and allowing heat to build day on day. A marine heatwave is occurring in the Mediterranean Sea with sea surface temperatures in the mid to high twenties (Fig.3). Nighttime temperatures are also remaining very high. Red high temperature warnings have been issued in some Mediterranean countries. For any holidaymakers heading in that direction check www.meteoalarm.org for all active warnings.
Fig 3: Sea surface temperatures (degrees Celsius)
Linda Hughes continues, “In contrast, Ireland is currently under the influence of Atlantic low pressure systems, bringing changeable weather with spells of heavy rain at times. Looking at the extended range forecast, there is no clear signal for any long-settled periods”.
A spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather this weekend as an active low pressure system moves across the country.
Met Éireann forecaster Liz Coleman explains “ We’ve seen notable accumulations of rain over the south and southwest this morning (Friday). The band of persistent rain is now moving over the midlands and north of the country, bringing the possibility of localised flooding. Visibility is particularly poor in these conditions so do take care if you are travelling on the roads. It will be windy too for a time this afternoon, with fresh to strong easterly winds, leading to choppy conditions at sea particularly on eastern coasts. Isolated showers will follow into the south through the afternoon with some heavy and possibly thundery bursts and winds veering southwesterly. Yellow rainfall warnings are still in effect across the country.
Tomorrow, Saturday we can expect a further band of rain or showers as the low pressure tracks eastwards, introducing fresh to strong and gusty north to northwest winds. It will be particularly windy along exposed coasts in the west and northwest, with gales likely at sea.
Liz Coleman continues “We don’t want people to be caught off guard, especially with summer holidays in full swing. We ask people to keep up to date with the forecast for their area via www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app. For further advice on how to plan accordingly check BeSummerReady.”
The winds will moderate westerly on Sunday with a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers and early indications are for our weather to remain unsettled into next week.
By Meteorologists Rebecca Cantwell and Evelyn Cusack.
The current fine spell is set to continue over the June Bank Holiday Weekend and right through the first week in June. The Azores anticyclone (high pressure system) is shifted from its normal position around the Azores (and hence its name) up to the north of Ireland producing an easterly airflow over Ireland. This is called a blocking high pressure system as it literally blocks out the rainbelts in the Atlantic and diverts away the Jet stream and low pressure systems to the north and to the south and in fact over the Azores, the Azores high has been replaced this week by a low pressure system and rain. Over southern Europe daytime heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Portugal over to Greece, while we enjoy fine, dry weather. See the Atlantic chart below showing the Azores high shifted to the north of Ireland and the precipitation forecast over Mediterranean countries.
So lovely, fine, sunny weather in store for Bloom and for all the myriad of events around the country for the June Weekend but also for the start of the Leaving Cert and best wishes to all the students from Met Éireann.
Sea Surface Temperature Sat 03 June 2023 13:00
Sea temperatures are nearly 16°C off Kerry but only 12°C in the Northeast so an east to northeast airflow makes it feel fresh anywhere along the north and east coast with air temperatures here typically of 15 to 18°C. But apart from these coastal areas and mountains, it will be warm with maximum values reaching 21 to 24°C countrywide and as high as 25 degrees in in parts of the west. Check Sea surface temperatures and mountains forecasts for your area.
Safety on the Water: Please take great care if out on or near water. Avoid swimming in potentially treacherous locations like flooded quarries. Swim at designated, lifeguarded waterways and beaches, between the flags, where possible. Stay within your depth. Always wear a personal flotation device/lifejacket when boating or angling and ensure that it has correctly fitting straps. Contact the Coastguard if you see somebody in trouble or think they are in trouble on the water or along the coast Dial 112/999. For more information https://watersafety.ie/open-water-swimming/.
Visit EPA Beaches.ie to view bathing water quality and get the Met Éireann weather forecast for over 200 beaches around Ireland.
UV: The UV index is 7. Seek shade during peak sunshine hours of 12-3pm, this is when UV is at its highest and people are at greatest risk of sunstroke and sunburn. Cover up with a hat and long sleeved T-shirt. Skin cancer is the most common type of cancer in Ireland and to help prevent it don’t burn. Remain hydrated. Carry plenty of water on journeys in case of delays due to increased numbers visiting coastal and rural areas.
Fire: There is a Fire Danger Notice – Condition Orange in operation until the 6th June (likely to be extended). Ground conditions are quite dry so please do not ignite naked flames in any woodland or grassland areas. Never barbecue in parks, wildland areas or any site in close proximity to vegetation, trees etc. Most wildfires in Ireland are a result of human activities and are therefore avoidable.
Please do enjoy the fine weather but stay safe. Met Éireann now has a daily audio weather forecast available as a podcast, recorded by our weather forecasters. Search Weather Forecast from Met Éireann on your podcast player – it’s available now on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher and more. Or listen on Audioboom if the player is not available. For your local 10-day forecast www.met.ie or App.
The weather for this Easter weekend will be mixed with an Atlantic airflow feeding in some rain at times.
Good Friday will be fine but followed by cloudier weather and some rain over the weekend. It’ll turn breezier too on Easter Sunday, and there’ll be a mix of showers and sunny spells for Easter Monday. Overall, the east of the country will have the driest conditions. Temperatures will be just around normal for the time of year with Friday feeling quite mild in the sunshine but overall feeling on the cool side. Gardeners be warned that there may be some air frost Thursday night/early Friday morning.
“Good Friday will the best day countrywide this Easter. It will be dry and bright for most of the country, with just the chance of light isolated showers. Temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees in a mostly light southerly breeze” says forecaster Linda Hughes.
“A lot of dry weather too, in the east over the Easter weekend, however it will be overall quite cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain and some heavy rain moving in at times from the Atlantic” continues Linda. “Southerly winds will be mostly light on Saturday, but will freshen during Easter Sunday will be a fresh, blustery day’.
Easter Monday will be a bright, breezy day with sunny spells and passing showers.
Daytime temperatures for the Easter weekend will range around 10 to 14 degrees, with Saturday looking to be the coolest day. Night time temperatures typically 5 to 8 degrees
This mixed Atlantic regime is set to continue through next week and next weekend also as you can see from the airflow prediction guidance from ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)..
If you’re out and about this weekend, hiking, biking or just a stroll on the beach, make sure you keep up to date with your localised forecast using the Met Eireann App and look for our new ‘feels like’ temperatures, daily podcasts and mountains forecast.
The uncertainties surrounding the forecast for Thursday the 9th of March are keenly illustrated on the chart below. The image demonstrates the probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow based on a forecast from Met Éireann’s high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS. The darker the colour, the more certain the forecast is for that precipitation type to fall.
Probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow at 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March from a model forecast on Tuesday the 7th of March.
The snapshot shown is the forecast for 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March, as of the morning of the 7th of March. Focusing on the “Rain”, “Sleet” and “Snow” panels, the transformation of the precipitation as it moves northwards across the country is evident, with the precipitation almost certain to fall as rain in the somewhat milder air to the south, becoming sleet through north Munster and into the midlands and a very high likelihood of snow in north Leinster and Ulster.
According to Dr. Alan Hally, Forecasting Services Manager at Met Éireann, “Our high-resolution ensemble prediction system is specifically designed to represent the uncertainties related to these types of events. In Ireland, the occurrence of snow is almost always a marginal event, and our forecasters rely heavily on ensemble prediction systems in order to determine the most likely outcome and to decide on appropriate and timely warnings”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland, go to http://www.met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie.
Issued at 6pm Monday 6th March 2023
Much colder this week as a northerly airflow moves over the country introducing sharp to severe frosts at night and icy patches with some snow in the forecast.
A cold front sinks southward across Ireland on Monday evening (March 6th) introducing a much colder polar maritime airmass. Met Éireann has issued a Yellow Ice warning for tonight (Monday 6th of March) as temperatures drop to freezing countrywide.
According to Forecaster Gerry Murphy “For Monday night temperatures will fall to between -4 to 0 degrees leading to a widespread sharp frost and some icy stretches, especially over the northern half of the country. Further south, outbreaks of rain will turn to sleet or snow for a time overnight in Munster leading to poor visibility and hazardous driving conditions. A cold bright day on Tuesday will be followed by a very cold night on Tuesday night with widespread frost and some icy stretches. Outbreaks of sleet or snow may develop late in the night in Cork and Kerry”.
Airmass for Tuesday 7th March – Thursday the 9th of Marth showing a cold (blue) airmass extending southwards over Ireland.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast from midweek onwards, with some model runs bringing the boundary between the cold polar airmass and the milder tropical airmass northwards over the country, which could bring a spell of snow for a time ahead of the milder air. The extent of this event and its impacts will become more evident by midweek, at which time further warnings will be issued if necessary.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie
An Artic airmass will bring sharp to severe frosts with ice on footpaths and roads. Showers of hail, sleet, snow and freezing rain are likely with fog and possibly freezing fog towards the weekend.
Meteorologist Andrew Doran Sherlock explains “the most severe impacts will be on driving conditions which could be treacherous in places on Thursday morning, particularly during commute times”
Airmass chart for Thursday 8th December showing a cold (blue) airmass extending southwards over Ireland.
Very cold conditions will set in as an Arctic airmass moves southwards, extending over Ireland. Daytime temperatures will struggle to reach the low single figures. Air temperatures will widely drop to -4°C or -5°C at night, dropping down lower locally, with ground temperatures expected to fall further. A status yellow low temperature/ice warning has been issued for Thursday with further warnings likely to be required for the following days.
Wintry showers with falls of hail, sleet and snow are expected which will lead to dangerous conditions on paths and roads. Freezing rain is also possible, resulting in black ice.
Mist and fog will also be a feature of the nights and with very slack winds over the weekend, widespread and dense fog is expected, lingering in some parts through much of the day. Freezing fog is also a possibility.
Be Winter Ready
credit: www.winterready.ie
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie
Freezing Rain & Black Ice
Water droplets don’t necessarily freeze immediately when the air temperature falls below 0°C as they need freezing nuclei to convert to ice particles. Rain droplets that exist below 0°C are said to be supercooled. Freezing rain is where these supercooled water droplets fall to the surface causing significant disruption and hazardous conditions. While unusual in Ireland, freezing rain does sometimes occur, converting to black ice when it hits a surface. Black ice is especially dangerous as it is invisible and can be mistaken for wet surfaces – leading to treacherous conditions on roads and paths. Freezing rain can also lead to ice build-up on car windscreens impairing visibility.
Fog & Freezing Fog
Fog is essentially thick, low lying cloud composed of tiny water droplets (1 million fog droplets is equivalent to 1 rain droplet) suspended near the Earth’s surface where visibility is reduced below 1km. The reduced visibility is a major hazard for those travelling on or near roads. Freezing fog is where the water droplets are supercooled, and while suspended in the air, can be converted to ice upon contact with a surface such as a car windscreen. This leads to further hazardous driving conditions.
Climate Statistics
Irelands’ coldest day in December occurred on Christmas day the 25th December 2010. The air temperature at Straide, County Mayo dropped to -17.5°C and 11cm of snow was observed at this station that morning.
Although it is too early to say that 2022 will be Ireland’s warmest year on record yet, what would we need for this to be a record-breaking warm year? And will this cold spell stop Ireland having its warmest year on record?
The average daily maximum temperature we expect in Ireland in December is generally in the range of 7 to 10°C and the average daily minimum temperature we expect in December in Ireland is generally in the range of 2 to 5°C.
According to Met Eireann’s latest statistics, Ireland would have to have a December monthly mean temperature of 4.05°C or below to not have the warmest year on record.
A December monthly mean temperature of 4.05°C has only happened 7 times in 123 years, the last couple of times being Dec 2009 and 2010, when it was 4.01°C and 1.44°C respectively.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
by Paul Downes, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann. Issued 9th August 2022
(Updated by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022)
HARMONIE maximum and minimum air temperature forecast – Thursday 11th to Sunday 14th august
High pressure will generally dominate our weather over the coming days, so as it’s warming up once again, what are we to expect with this spike in temperatures?
First off, will this be a heat wave?
Well for the first time this summer we can say with a high degree of confidence that heatwave criteria will be met in some parts of the country.
So what exactly defines a heat wave?
The definition of a heat wave in Ireland is shaded air temperatures reaching highs of above 25˚ C on five or more consecutive days at the same location.
So where in Ireland is likely to see widespread temperatures with maxima in excess of 25˚ Cover the coming 5 day period?
From at least Wednesday the 10th through Sunday the 14th, maximum temperatures above 25˚ C look very likely for much of Munster and Leinster, and in large parts of these provinces, temperatures are likely to reach the upper 20’s for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday.
There is an exception to be made here; even though winds over land will be quite low, sea breezes will set up especially along east and south-east coasts and this will limit the maximum temperatures to the lower 20’s close to the shoreline.
Over Connacht and Ulster maximum temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 20’s on Wednesday and Thursday, however maximum temperatures will rise to the mid 20’s or a little higher from Friday onwards, so while temperatures may rise above 25˚ C in some parts over the coming 5 days it is unlikely that at any one station this will happen on all 5 days and thus will fall short of the heatwave criteria.
Sea fog may linger locally on all coasts at times also and that will limit maximum temperatures in these locations.
Uncertainty increases as we progress through Sunday and into the early days of next week with a slight chance of thunderstorms later on Sunday and into Monday, likely heralding a return to cooler near average temperatures.
Where will be warmest and are there any high temperature warnings?
Much of Munster and Leinster will see temperatures rise into the upper 20’s later in the week, although coastal fringes will remain slightly less warm. A status yellow high temperature warning has been issued with highs likely to exceed 27 degrees over a large area for more than 2 successive days, beginning on Thursday, while night time lows will remain above 15°C for much of the night time hours over the same region. As the week progresses and the forecast becomes more certain, some counties further to the north and west like Galway and Roscommon may be added also.
Will the record for highest temperature in August be broken?
The highest August temperature was set 27 years ago on Sunday 2nd August 1995 at Oak Park, Co. Carlow (11.3°C above its 1981-2010 long-term-average), with 31.5°C.
Oak Park will likely be one station to watch again later this week, especially on Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of exceeding the August record temperature is quite low. However, temperatures exceeding 30°C locally cannot be ruled out.
Phoenix Park, Co Dublin observed at 14:40 Irish time (13:40 UTC) on Monday 18 July 2022 a shade maximum air temperature of 33.0 °C which is 12.8 °C above its 1981-1981 long-term average (LTA) of 20.2 °C.
Update by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022
How is the heatwave evolving?
All areas in Ireland are now expected to become very warm or hot from tomorrow onwards, and so the Status Yellow temperature warning has been extended to all counties from 12:00 Friday until 06:00 Sunday.
Wednesday temperatures:
As Paul predicted, Oak Park in Carlow was the station to watch as it recorded the highest temperature yesterday of 29.2 degrees Celsius.
50% of stations in Met Eireann’s TUSCON station network reached 25 degrees, signalling the likely start of a heatwave, with mainly coastal stations remaining below the threshold.
Thursday temperatures:
Oak Park in Carlow is again today’s hottest station, recording 30.0°C at 1500, just below the record for August, which remains at 31.5°C for the time being.
So far today 57% of TUSCON stations have reached at least 25°C, signalling more widespread hot temperatures today.
Has the weekend forecast changed?
Very little has changed for the weekend forecast and we remain on track for this spell of hot weather to reach heatwave criteria, as daily temperature maxima will very likely remain above 25°C.
Saturday:
Sunday:
The Breakdown:
The high pressure system largely responsible for the spell of hot weather will likely break down on Sunday, with medium-range models predicting low pressure to push up from the southeast and bring possibly heavy and thundery showers on Sunday evening.
What are the major impacts and concerns for this potential heatwave?
Water safety
Unfortunately there have been a number of water related fatalities this year, and it is therefore paramount that water safety is at the forefront of our minds when it comes to enjoying the warm conditions, or seeking relief when it gets too hot.
Please follow water safety guidelines and be vigilant of those around you. Check the latest sea area and inland lakes forecasts here.
Average UV and temperatures rise and fall during the day during Summer
Hydration is once again very important through this period as it will also remain very warm and muggy at night time. This applies to farm animals and pets also.
Conservation of water and fire risk
With ground conditions becoming very dry over the course of the summer, water tables are low and water should be conserved where possible. So try and only use water where necessary and avoid wastage.
With the very dry conditions and the gradual increase in temperatures exacerbating that, fire risk will be high so always make sure to properly extinguish barbeques, and avoid lighting open fires in wooded or grassland areas.
Please remember that warm or hot spells like this actually contribute the greatest weather related risk to life, so while it can be a welcome event for some, please be cautious to the many risks to your health and safety.
For full information on government guidance to staying safe in summer, please consult the Be Summer-Ready booklet.
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in the early 1800s, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
8°C above its long-term average (LTA)
2nd highest temperature on record for Ireland, being 0.3°C below the all-time record of 33.3°C observed at Kilkenny Castle on Sun 26 June 1887
highest in the 21st century – beating Elphin, Co. Roscommon’s record of 32.3°C on Wednesday 19 July 2006
higher than any temperature of the 20th century, which was 32.5 °C at Boora, Co. Offaly on Tuesday 29 Jun 1976
highest temperature ever recorded in Dublin
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Sweltering heat forecast from 17th to 19th July – what to expect
by Meteorologist Paul Downes
While Europe has been basking in what seems like an eternal heat wave all summer long, Ireland has seen mostly a very average summer. Over the next few days however a combination of factors will help to steer those higher temperatures our way, if only for a relatively brief spell of very warm temperatures.
So what is causing it?
ECMWF-Temperature and geopotential height forecast.
Initially a portion of the Azores High will extend from the southwest over Ireland for the weekend. It will bring a rise in temperatures but still hold the warmer air to the south. As the high pressure moves away to the east, the anticyclonic, or clockwise rotation will steer up air from the southeast, but the real contributing factor is how it interacts with a low pressure system developing off the coast of Portugal and gradually meandering northwards. The cyclonic or anticlockwise flow of the low working in conjuction with the anticyclonic flow from the high will generate a strong surge of warm air between both systems thus pushing the warm air towards Ireland, transporting the airmass that has brought exceptional temperatures to Europe, towards Ireland.
What temperatures should we expect?
While the high builds in on Friday and Saturday the high temperatures will range generally in the low to mid 20’s. There will also be some upper cloud at times making sunshine a little hazy and there is a chance of a few showers too.
As the high begins to drift a little to the east on Sunday, temperatures will rise to mid to upper 20’s with temperatures possibly surpassing 30 locally on Monday. There is a little more uncertainty regarding Tuesday but it does look like it will be another hot day and perhaps as hot if not hotter than Monday. While this warmer air moves in our direction there will be the chance of a few thundery bursts especially on Tuesday.
Maximum temperatures Saturday to Sunday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Sunday to Monday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Monday to Tuesday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Tuesday to Wednesday – ECMWF
With temperatures soaring, it is important to remain hydrated and be Sun Smart, that goes for animals as well as ourselves. Be prepared and remember to Be Summer Ready
The night time temperature will also be very warm and humid with temperatures on Sunday and Monday night not likely to fall below the mid to high teens and in some areas they may not fall below 20°C, which is known as a Tropical night.
Status Yellow High Temperature Warning Issued
We have issued a Status Yellow High Temperature warning for Ireland.
On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday exceptionally warm weather will occur over Ireland with daytime temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees generally and possibly up to 32 degrees in places on Monday. Night time temperatures will range from 15 to 20 degrees.
Impacts:
• Heat stress, especially for the more vulnerable of the population
• High Solar UV index
• Risk of water related incidents
Currently it looks as if the breakdown will happen on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the Low pressure system moves up over Ireland steering in cooler air from the west for the rest of the week. This will also bring some wet conditions on Wednesday.
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in 1891, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
12.8°C above its long-term average (LTA)
2nd highest temperature on record for Ireland, being 0.3°C below the all-time record of 33.3°C observed at Kilkenny Castle on Sun 26 June 1887
highest in the 21st century – beating Elphin, Co. Roscommon’s record of 32.3°C on Wednesday 19 July 2006
higher than any temperature of the 20th century, which was 32.5 °C at Boora, Co. Offaly on Tuesday 29 Jun 1976
highest temperature ever recorded in Dublin
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
What brought the heat to the south-western part of the continent?
High pressure ridge already formed in the South West Europe by 12 June 2022, with an Atlantic low-pressure system between the Azores islands and Madeira, which caused the uprising of warm air in western Europe (source: WMO). This ridge did not move and the temperatures rose gradually day to day. Maximum temperatures were often above 30°C and 8 to 10°C higher than the climatological average.
WMO Tweet
Provisional temperature records
Saint-Jean-De-Minervois reached 40°C on 16 June, earliest every 40°C in France. Cottbus, Germany temperature 140 year-old record was broken with 39.2°C on 19 June 2022 (since 1888, previous record was 38.9°C set on 29 July 1921). Up to 43°C was observed in Andalusia, Spain. A June temperature record was broken for the western part of Austria with 36.5°C. High temperature records were also set in Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland.
The heatwave is expected to come to the rest of central and south Europe in the next few days. While a Saharan dust storm will deteriorate air quality in southern France, Italy, Balearic Islands, Spain & the Balkan Peninsula. (source: CopernicusEU) .
“Climate projection models suggest that heatwaves as likely to become more frequent, longer and more intense, start earlier and finish later than in the past.” Keith Lambkin, Senior Climatologist.
Why did Ireland not achieve these high temperatures?
On Saturday, a front lay over the southeast of the country which slowly cleared south-eastwards. A moderate northwest breeze which felt cool and kept the temperatures low. On Sunday, there was a depression of 999 hPa centred to the northwest of Scotland which was tracking eastward. So the air across Ireland is flowing eastward, keeping the continental heat away from our shores.
What is a climatological heatwave in Ireland?
In terms of climate monitoring, a heatwave occurs at a station when there five (5) consecutive days or more observe a daily maximum temperature over 25 degrees Celsius (> 25 °C).
In general in Ireland, heatwaves occur in June, July and August. There has been only one instance of a heatwave beginning in May (Glenties Hatchery, Co Donegal in 2012) and four starting in September, all within the first 2 weeks – one occurring in 1959 and the others occurred in 1991. The peak month for heatwaves in Ireland is July. The average heatwaves is 6 days long. It would be rare to have a heatwave longer than 9 days. The longest heatwave observed is 14 days in Laois and Offaly in August 1976.
Temperatures in June 2022 so far
The highest daily maximum shaded air temperature of 2022 so far is 23.9°C which occurred on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Phoenix Park, Co Dublin.
Currently June 2022 is two thirds completed and is 41st warmest June on record (Island of Ireland long-term series, 123 years) with an average temperature to yesterday of 13.7°C. This value is a half degree above June’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and is currently on average to the 1991-2020 June average. Typically in Ireland, we would expect warmer temperatures towards the end of the month, as the summer progresses. So we are expecting June 2022 to be warmer than 41st warmest. We will have to wait another 10 days to find out however.
The warmest June occurred 82 years ago in 1940 with 15.4°C.
The coldest June occurred 50 years ago in 1972 with 11.1°C.
Of the ten warmest Junes on record, half have occurred from 2005 onwards. Of the 41 warmest Junes, just over a third have occurred from 2003 onwards.
No Junes in the 21st century (2001-2022) appear in the coldest ten Junes. Of the 41 coldest Junes, only 5% have occurred from 2011 onwards.
June Island of Ireland long-term temperature anomalies (June 2022 up to 20 June only)
What’s in store for the coming days of June 2022
Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings:
May 2022 was provisionally Ireland’s 3rd warmest on record. The average temperature being 12.6°C, which is 1.9°C above May’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Across Europe, temperatures in May 2022 varied considerably compared against the average May values for 1991-2020. The Sahara influence again meant hotter than average in the far west of Europe. While many countries, France, Spain and Portugal broke records.
Globally, May was the fifth warmest on record, joint with May 2018 and 2021.
High pressure over Europe will become centred over Ireland in the coming days, bringing a good deal of dry and mild weather along with plenty of sunshine.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “The dry and bright weather that we’ve had over the past few days won’t be going anywhere this week. High pressure is going to stay very firmly in charge so we can generally expect plenty of sunshine and little or no rain.”
“Some very weak fronts will drift into western and northern areas later this week so it’ll be a bit cloudier there at times with a few spots of drizzle but any accumulations will be small. So, even though it won’t be wall-to-wall sunshine, it will be very pleasant still.”
Daytime temperatures will be on the mild side for March and at night temperatures will drop into the low single figures, so a few patches of grass frost are still possible, especially when the skies are clear.
Aoife continued: “It’s the daytime temperatures that are notable though. The average maximum temperatures for this time of year are around 11 or 12 degrees, but the combination of a relatively mild airmass and good spells of sunshine mean that top temperatures this week will widely get into the mid-teens, even hitting the high teens at times.”
This current spell of settled weather looks to last into at least this weekend. Aoife explained: “Although there’s a bit of uncertainty later this weekend, there’s no real sign of this high pressure breaking down until early next week at least. So, this really lovely spell of spring weather won’t be going anywhere too quickly.”
UV and Pollen forecasts for 2022 begin this week
With spring in full force and plenty of sunshine across the country this week, pollen and UV levels will start to increase. You can now find the latest UV and pollen forecasts for 3 days ahead on the Met Éireann website and app.
For more information on staying safe in the sun please visit our UV Index page.
After a changeable week, our weather will remain mixed as we head into the weekend with the potential for heavy rain in some places but also some drier and brighter weather too.
Met Éireann Meteorologist Emer Flood said: “An active jet stream will continue to steer Atlantic low-pressure systems in our direction over the coming days, these will bring spells of heavy rain and strong winds at times.
“Heavy rain will move into the southwest on Thursday night, becoming widespread Friday morning which may lead to localised surface flooding. There is also potential for further heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend with the possibility of warnings being issued. We’re advising everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast for the coming days.”
A yellow rain warning is in place for many southern and western counties from 15:00 on Saturday afternoon until around midnight, where heavy rain along with strong winds will bring a risk of flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
On Friday, rain will be quite widespread and heavy in places, slowly clearing northeastwards in the afternoon. This will be followed by heavy showers with the potential for thunderstorms and hail, which could lead to some localised flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
Some heavy or prolonged showers will continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Otherwise, Saturday will start off dry and bright in many areas. However later in the day a low-pressure system will approach from the southwest, with cloud building and winds strengthening as rain arrives across the southern half of the country by evening. Rain may turn to sleet or snow in parts, especially over high ground. Sunday will be wet and windy for many as this same low-pressure system slowly pushes north over Ireland with further falls of sleet or snow possible locally.
Looking ahead to next week there are signs of a quieter and more settled spell on Monday and Tuesday, though this may be short-lived as things once again turn more unsettled around midweek.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
A brief cold snap on the way on Wednesday evening and Thursday, with wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow along with strong and gusty winds leading to some impacts in areas.
A cold front moving across Ireland this afternoon (Wednesday 23rd) will introduce a much colder and unstable polar maritime airmass tonight and tomorrow. Met Éireann has issued several yellow weather warnings including yellow level snow/ice and wind warnings. These warnings are in place for many northern and western counties for tonight and Thursday.
Staying unsettled & turning cold over the next few days with wintry showers on Wednesday night & Thursday.
Some snow is likely in places & showers will be heavy with possible hail & thunder too.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood said, “Temperatures will drop quite quickly this evening with the chance of frost and ice forming, especially for inland and rural areas.
“It’ll be windy tonight too especially in northern and western areas, this helping to drive wintry showers of snow, sleet and hail inland. Some areas especially in the northwest will see some snow accumulations of a few centimetres to lower levels, accumulations elsewhere will be mainly confined to high ground.
“It’ll remain very cold and windy across the country on Thursday with continued snow showers, this leading to treacherous driving conditions from icy stretches and reduced visibility on the roads in places. This polar maritime airmass is quite unstable so we could see some hail and lightning at times throughout Thursday too.”
Temperatures on Thursday will be limited to around 3 to 7 degrees, with the brisk northwesterly winds making it feel much colder.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, Emer continued: “Following this cold spell, temperatures will recover on Friday and into the weekend with highs of around 8 to 10 degrees. Although there is some rain in the forecast over the weekend, much of this will fall overnight so there’ll be decent spell of dry and bright weather around over the weekend too.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Meteorologist's Commentary
Storm Agnes
Storm Agnes has been named by the UK Met Office on the morning of Monday September 25th. This significant weather event is due to make land fall over Ireland on Wednesday September 27th. Ahead of its arrival Met Éireann have issued a number of wind and rainfall warnings across counties in Leinster, and Munster. The UK Met Office have also issued warnings for Ulster.
This developing storm is currently out in the mid-Atlantic. Our latest analysis chart shows the weather system in its infant stage.
The infra-red satellite image from 12Z on Monday the 25th of September shows the large mass of cloud which will eventually develop into Storm Agnes.
Over the next few hours and days this developing area of low pressure will be taken up by the jet stream and undergo rapid deepening.
Shown below is the jet stream prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) model. Highlighted in blue is Storm Agnes modelled at 12Z today September the 25th.
Moving on another 24 hrs to 12Z on Tuesday September the 26th we can see the low has moved across the Atlantic, being taken up by the jet stream. It has also been deepened significantly.
Looking ahead to 06Z on Wednesday the 27th of September, the day the storm will make landfall, we can see how the low pressure has transitioned to the northern side of the jet stream and undergone further deepening.
Storm Agnes is likely to make landfall late Wednesday morning and for now a number of weather warnings have been issued in response. These warnings are likely to be updated as further modelling data becomes available.
Currently, the strongest winds are forecast to impact the south and south-east of the country. However, the latest guidance from our high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS, demonstrates the current uncertainty in the exact track of Storm Agnes.
Each dot in the image above shows where an individual forecast from IREPS has forecast the centre of the cyclone to track over Ireland. As we move closer to the event, IREPS will be able to give more certainty with regards to the exact track of Storm Agnes.
We are monitoring the development of this storm closely and further updates to our warnings will be issued. Please keep up to date with the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
A warm start to Autumn
Issued 5th of September 2023
After a very wet and unsettled July and August, fine and largely settled conditions have returned for the first week of September.
These warm conditions are due to an area of low pressure to the west of the Iberia which, coupled with high pressure over Scandinavia is advecting warm and humid air over Ireland.
Meteorologist with Met Éireann Emer Flood explains, “High pressure looks set to dominate our weather for the rest of the week bringing generally fine and settled conditions. Daytime temperatures will reach into the early 20s for much of the country, with parts of the south midlands reaching 25°C or above. These warm daytime temperatures will be coupled with nighttime temperatures not dropping any lower than the early teens leading to some uncomfortable sleeping conditions in the coming days.
Last night a minimum temperature of 20.7°C was recorded at Valentia, which is provisionally the first recorded tropical night of the year.
Climatologist with Met Éireann Dr. Sandra Spillane states, “We recorded temperatures greater than 25.0°C at a number of our stations yesterday (Monday the 5th of September) so we’ll be keeping a close eye on temperatures over the coming days to see if heatwave criteria are reached”.
A heatwave occurs at a Met Éireann station when the daily maximum shaded air temperature is greater than twenty-five degrees Celsius (> 25.0°C) for five or more consecutive days. More information on hot weather conditions can be found in our Summer Centre.
So will the fine weather stay with us for the weekend?
Emer continues, “While many areas will see fine and dry weather right out the weekend, there will be showers at times, in the west on Wednesday, but further east towards the end of the week with the chance of some thundery downpours.”
“The models are showing a breakdown to cooler and more unsettled weather early next week although there is still a lot of uncertainty at this stage”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For advice on how to stay safe in fine weather, check Be Summer-Ready.
Storm Betty to Impact Ireland Friday 18th August 2023 - updated at 5pm
By Meteorologist Paul Downes
Storm Betty is rapidly developing to the south of Ireland and will impact the country through the rest of the day and overnight. Very strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected, with Cork, Waterford, Tipperary, Wexford, Kilkenny, Carlow and Wicklow likely to get the brunt of Storm Betty winds and rain with south to southwest gales and severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. An Orange wind warning will be in effect from 9pm Friday the 18th until 3am on Saturday the 19th There is also a status orange rainfall warning for the same counties currently in effect and which will last until 11pm on Friday.
The rain will precede the wind through this afternoon and evening with the potential for some high accumulations over a short period of time likely to lead to localised flooding. There is likely to be some wave overtopping along south, south-eastern and eastern coasts also.
Further status yellow wind warnings will come into effect for Munster and Leinster later today. The UK Met Office has also issued a status yellow wind warning for Down and Antrim from this evening. Further counties may be increased to Orange level in the coming hours so please keep in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings.
Status yellow rainfall warnings are in effect for the entire country. The UK Met Office have also issued status yellow rainfall warnings for Northern Ireland.
Potential impacts especially within the orange warning areas are: Structural damage, falling trees, travel disruption, power outages, localised flooding, wave overtopping.
*Update at 5pm on Friday: A Status Red – Marine Storm warning has been issued from Carnsore Point to Dungarvan to Mizen Head as southeast winds, veering southwesterly increasing to storm force 10, and occasionally violent storm force 11 for a time on Irish coastal waters.
An unseasonably strong jet streak (a more intense area of winds embedded in the jet stream) is currently helping to rapidly intensify Storm Betty to the south of Ireland. Storm Betty will track up across the country today (Friday 18th) and overnight before weakening and clearing away to the north on Saturday morning (19th).
As the very strong winds are unseasonable and trees are in full leaf, very difficult travelling conditions are expected. Whether in the yellow or orange warning areas, temporary structures should be secured adequately. The strong winds will also provide a danger to high sided vehicles.
As Storm Betty is rapidly developing, further warnings may be issued in the coming hours and close monitoring of the situation is advised.
An unseasonably wet and windy start to the August Bank Holiday weekend
Wet and windy weather will develop on Friday night and early on Saturday as a low pressure system sweeps across Ireland.
After a dry start on Friday, outbreaks of heavy rain will spread across the country later in the day and overnight with strong and gusty northwesterly winds developing, alongside gales on southern and western coasts.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy commented that “A low pressure system will approach the country on Friday and that will drive outbreaks of rain eastwards across us Friday evening and night. That rain will turn heavy in places overnight and on Saturday morning, which could lead to spot flooding. The low pressure system will also bring strong and gusty northwest winds, especially in the southwest and south.”
There is still uncertainty around the track of this low and the exact areas that will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain.
Aoife explained “Despite the uncertainty in the low’s exact trajectory, we do know that it will be unseasonably wet and windy. The combination of those strong winds and heavy rain could lead to some difficult travelling conditions and impact any outdoor events on Friday night and Saturday morning, particularly anyone attending festivals and sleeping in tents or temporary structures. Due to trees being in full leaf and the ground being waterlogged from record rainfall during the month of July, there is a risk of some fallen trees in those areas with the strongest winds.”
The low pressure system will gradually move into the Irish Sea on Saturday, with scattered showers following from the northwest.
“That low will clear to the east on Saturday afternoon, and a mix of sunshine and showers will follow for later Saturday and Sunday. It’ll be a brighter day on Sunday with more in the way of dry spells.” continued Aoife.
Sunday is looking like the best day of the weekend – another low pressure system will cross the country on Monday, bringing further rainfall.
Aoife says “With the unseasonable weather expected over the weekend, especially with more people on the move for the bank holiday, we ask people to keep an eye on the forecast and any possible warnings for their area at www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app.”
Contrasting weather across Europe – Tuesday 18 July 2023
Extreme and dangerous heat has been impacting many parts of the northern hemisphere, including Mediterranean countries where air temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above average. The heatwave is set to continue this week with record breaking temperatures forecast. In contrast, Ireland is experiencing unsettled weather with temperatures on the cool side, near or below the July average.
Why is there such a difference? Met Éireann meteorologist Linda Hughes explains “The main contributing factor is the position of the jet stream relative to Ireland. The jet stream is a band of very strong winds located around 9 or 10km above the surface of the earth which can meander to the north or south of Ireland. At the moment the jet stream is positioned to the south (Fig.1), which is placing Ireland in a cool airmass and a mainly west to northwest airflow (Fig.2)”.
Fig1: Jet stream at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
Fig 2: Wet-bulb potential temperature at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
A blocking area of high pressure is affecting southern Europe, which is inhibiting cloud formation and allowing heat to build day on day. A marine heatwave is occurring in the Mediterranean Sea with sea surface temperatures in the mid to high twenties (Fig.3). Nighttime temperatures are also remaining very high. Red high temperature warnings have been issued in some Mediterranean countries. For any holidaymakers heading in that direction check www.meteoalarm.org for all active warnings.
Fig 3: Sea surface temperatures (degrees Celsius)
Linda Hughes continues, “In contrast, Ireland is currently under the influence of Atlantic low pressure systems, bringing changeable weather with spells of heavy rain at times. Looking at the extended range forecast, there is no clear signal for any long-settled periods”.
Unseasonable weather for the weekend - Updated Friday 14 July 2023
A spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather this weekend as an active low pressure system moves across the country.
Met Éireann forecaster Liz Coleman explains “ We’ve seen notable accumulations of rain over the south and southwest this morning (Friday). The band of persistent rain is now moving over the midlands and north of the country, bringing the possibility of localised flooding. Visibility is particularly poor in these conditions so do take care if you are travelling on the roads. It will be windy too for a time this afternoon, with fresh to strong easterly winds, leading to choppy conditions at sea particularly on eastern coasts. Isolated showers will follow into the south through the afternoon with some heavy and possibly thundery bursts and winds veering southwesterly. Yellow rainfall warnings are still in effect across the country.
Tomorrow, Saturday we can expect a further band of rain or showers as the low pressure tracks eastwards, introducing fresh to strong and gusty north to northwest winds. It will be particularly windy along exposed coasts in the west and northwest, with gales likely at sea.
Liz Coleman continues “We don’t want people to be caught off guard, especially with summer holidays in full swing. We ask people to keep up to date with the forecast for their area via www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app. For further advice on how to plan accordingly check BeSummerReady.”
The winds will moderate westerly on Sunday with a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers and early indications are for our weather to remain unsettled into next week.
Fine spell continuing for the first week of June - issued Monday 29th May 2023
By Meteorologists Rebecca Cantwell and Evelyn Cusack.
The current fine spell is set to continue over the June Bank Holiday Weekend and right through the first week in June. The Azores anticyclone (high pressure system) is shifted from its normal position around the Azores (and hence its name) up to the north of Ireland producing an easterly airflow over Ireland. This is called a blocking high pressure system as it literally blocks out the rainbelts in the Atlantic and diverts away the Jet stream and low pressure systems to the north and to the south and in fact over the Azores, the Azores high has been replaced this week by a low pressure system and rain. Over southern Europe daytime heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Portugal over to Greece, while we enjoy fine, dry weather. See the Atlantic chart below showing the Azores high shifted to the north of Ireland and the precipitation forecast over Mediterranean countries.
So lovely, fine, sunny weather in store for Bloom and for all the myriad of events around the country for the June Weekend but also for the start of the Leaving Cert and best wishes to all the students from Met Éireann.
Sea Surface Temperature Sat 03 June 2023 13:00
Sea temperatures are nearly 16°C off Kerry but only 12°C in the Northeast so an east to northeast airflow makes it feel fresh anywhere along the north and east coast with air temperatures here typically of 15 to 18°C. But apart from these coastal areas and mountains, it will be warm with maximum values reaching 21 to 24°C countrywide and as high as 25 degrees in in parts of the west. Check Sea surface temperatures and mountains forecasts for your area.
Safety on the Water: Please take great care if out on or near water. Avoid swimming in potentially treacherous locations like flooded quarries. Swim at designated, lifeguarded waterways and beaches, between the flags, where possible. Stay within your depth. Always wear a personal flotation device/lifejacket when boating or angling and ensure that it has correctly fitting straps. Contact the Coastguard if you see somebody in trouble or think they are in trouble on the water or along the coast Dial 112/999. For more information https://watersafety.ie/open-water-swimming/.
Visit EPA Beaches.ie to view bathing water quality and get the Met Éireann weather forecast for over 200 beaches around Ireland.
UV: The UV index is 7. Seek shade during peak sunshine hours of 12-3pm, this is when UV is at its highest and people are at greatest risk of sunstroke and sunburn. Cover up with a hat and long sleeved T-shirt. Skin cancer is the most common type of cancer in Ireland and to help prevent it don’t burn. Remain hydrated. Carry plenty of water on journeys in case of delays due to increased numbers visiting coastal and rural areas.
Fire: There is a Fire Danger Notice – Condition Orange in operation until the 6th June (likely to be extended). Ground conditions are quite dry so please do not ignite naked flames in any woodland or grassland areas. Never barbecue in parks, wildland areas or any site in close proximity to vegetation, trees etc. Most wildfires in Ireland are a result of human activities and are therefore avoidable.
Please do enjoy the fine weather but stay safe. Met Éireann now has a daily audio weather forecast available as a podcast, recorded by our weather forecasters. Search Weather Forecast from Met Éireann on your podcast player – it’s available now on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher and more. Or listen on Audioboom if the player is not available. For your local 10-day forecast www.met.ie or App.
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Mixed weather for the Easter weekend - April 2023
5th April 2023
The weather for this Easter weekend will be mixed with an Atlantic airflow feeding in some rain at times.
Good Friday will be fine but followed by cloudier weather and some rain over the weekend. It’ll turn breezier too on Easter Sunday, and there’ll be a mix of showers and sunny spells for Easter Monday. Overall, the east of the country will have the driest conditions. Temperatures will be just around normal for the time of year with Friday feeling quite mild in the sunshine but overall feeling on the cool side. Gardeners be warned that there may be some air frost Thursday night/early Friday morning.
“Good Friday will the best day countrywide this Easter. It will be dry and bright for most of the country, with just the chance of light isolated showers. Temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees in a mostly light southerly breeze” says forecaster Linda Hughes.
“A lot of dry weather too, in the east over the Easter weekend, however it will be overall quite cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain and some heavy rain moving in at times from the Atlantic” continues Linda. “Southerly winds will be mostly light on Saturday, but will freshen during Easter Sunday will be a fresh, blustery day’.
Easter Monday will be a bright, breezy day with sunny spells and passing showers.
Daytime temperatures for the Easter weekend will range around 10 to 14 degrees, with Saturday looking to be the coolest day. Night time temperatures typically 5 to 8 degrees
This mixed Atlantic regime is set to continue through next week and next weekend also as you can see from the airflow prediction guidance from ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)..
If you’re out and about this weekend, hiking, biking or just a stroll on the beach, make sure you keep up to date with your localised forecast using the Met Eireann App and look for our new ‘feels like’ temperatures, daily podcasts and mountains forecast.
Updated hourly forecast on the Met Éireann app
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Cold spell commencing 6th of March 2023
Updated 12.45pm Tuesday 7th March 2023
The uncertainties surrounding the forecast for Thursday the 9th of March are keenly illustrated on the chart below. The image demonstrates the probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow based on a forecast from Met Éireann’s high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS. The darker the colour, the more certain the forecast is for that precipitation type to fall.
Probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow at 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March from a model forecast on Tuesday the 7th of March.
The snapshot shown is the forecast for 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March, as of the morning of the 7th of March. Focusing on the “Rain”, “Sleet” and “Snow” panels, the transformation of the precipitation as it moves northwards across the country is evident, with the precipitation almost certain to fall as rain in the somewhat milder air to the south, becoming sleet through north Munster and into the midlands and a very high likelihood of snow in north Leinster and Ulster.
According to Dr. Alan Hally, Forecasting Services Manager at Met Éireann, “Our high-resolution ensemble prediction system is specifically designed to represent the uncertainties related to these types of events. In Ireland, the occurrence of snow is almost always a marginal event, and our forecasters rely heavily on ensemble prediction systems in order to determine the most likely outcome and to decide on appropriate and timely warnings”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland, go to http://www.met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie.
Issued at 6pm Monday 6th March 2023
Much colder this week as a northerly airflow moves over the country introducing sharp to severe frosts at night and icy patches with some snow in the forecast.
A cold front sinks southward across Ireland on Monday evening (March 6th) introducing a much colder polar maritime airmass. Met Éireann has issued a Yellow Ice warning for tonight (Monday 6th of March) as temperatures drop to freezing countrywide.
According to Forecaster Gerry Murphy “For Monday night temperatures will fall to between -4 to 0 degrees leading to a widespread sharp frost and some icy stretches, especially over the northern half of the country. Further south, outbreaks of rain will turn to sleet or snow for a time overnight in Munster leading to poor visibility and hazardous driving conditions. A cold bright day on Tuesday will be followed by a very cold night on Tuesday night with widespread frost and some icy stretches. Outbreaks of sleet or snow may develop late in the night in Cork and Kerry”.
Airmass for Tuesday 7th March – Thursday the 9th of Marth showing a cold (blue) airmass extending southwards over Ireland.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast from midweek onwards, with some model runs bringing the boundary between the cold polar airmass and the milder tropical airmass northwards over the country, which could bring a spell of snow for a time ahead of the milder air. The extent of this event and its impacts will become more evident by midweek, at which time further warnings will be issued if necessary.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie
Cold Spell for the rest of this week – 6th December 2022
An Artic airmass will bring sharp to severe frosts with ice on footpaths and roads. Showers of hail, sleet, snow and freezing rain are likely with fog and possibly freezing fog towards the weekend.
Meteorologist Andrew Doran Sherlock explains “the most severe impacts will be on driving conditions which could be treacherous in places on Thursday morning, particularly during commute times”
Airmass chart for Thursday 8th December showing a cold (blue) airmass extending southwards over Ireland.
Very cold conditions will set in as an Arctic airmass moves southwards, extending over Ireland. Daytime temperatures will struggle to reach the low single figures. Air temperatures will widely drop to -4°C or -5°C at night, dropping down lower locally, with ground temperatures expected to fall further. A status yellow low temperature/ice warning has been issued for Thursday with further warnings likely to be required for the following days.
Wintry showers with falls of hail, sleet and snow are expected which will lead to dangerous conditions on paths and roads. Freezing rain is also possible, resulting in black ice.
Mist and fog will also be a feature of the nights and with very slack winds over the weekend, widespread and dense fog is expected, lingering in some parts through much of the day. Freezing fog is also a possibility.
Be Winter Ready
credit: www.winterready.ie
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie
Freezing Rain & Black Ice
Water droplets don’t necessarily freeze immediately when the air temperature falls below 0°C as they need freezing nuclei to convert to ice particles. Rain droplets that exist below 0°C are said to be supercooled. Freezing rain is where these supercooled water droplets fall to the surface causing significant disruption and hazardous conditions. While unusual in Ireland, freezing rain does sometimes occur, converting to black ice when it hits a surface. Black ice is especially dangerous as it is invisible and can be mistaken for wet surfaces – leading to treacherous conditions on roads and paths. Freezing rain can also lead to ice build-up on car windscreens impairing visibility.
Fog & Freezing Fog
Fog is essentially thick, low lying cloud composed of tiny water droplets (1 million fog droplets is equivalent to 1 rain droplet) suspended near the Earth’s surface where visibility is reduced below 1km. The reduced visibility is a major hazard for those travelling on or near roads. Freezing fog is where the water droplets are supercooled, and while suspended in the air, can be converted to ice upon contact with a surface such as a car windscreen. This leads to further hazardous driving conditions.
Climate Statistics
Irelands’ coldest day in December occurred on Christmas day the 25th December 2010. The air temperature at Straide, County Mayo dropped to -17.5°C and 11cm of snow was observed at this station that morning.
Although it is too early to say that 2022 will be Ireland’s warmest year on record yet, what would we need for this to be a record-breaking warm year? And will this cold spell stop Ireland having its warmest year on record?
The average daily maximum temperature we expect in Ireland in December is generally in the range of 7 to 10°C and the average daily minimum temperature we expect in December in Ireland is generally in the range of 2 to 5°C.
According to Met Eireann’s latest statistics, Ireland would have to have a December monthly mean temperature of 4.05°C or below to not have the warmest year on record.
A December monthly mean temperature of 4.05°C has only happened 7 times in 123 years, the last couple of times being Dec 2009 and 2010, when it was 4.01°C and 1.44°C respectively.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Heatwave conditions very likely this week - August 2022
by Paul Downes, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann. Issued 9th August 2022
(Updated by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022)
HARMONIE maximum and minimum air temperature forecast – Thursday 11th to Sunday 14th august
High pressure will generally dominate our weather over the coming days, so as it’s warming up once again, what are we to expect with this spike in temperatures?
First off, will this be a heat wave?
Well for the first time this summer we can say with a high degree of confidence that heatwave criteria will be met in some parts of the country.
So what exactly defines a heat wave?
The definition of a heat wave in Ireland is shaded air temperatures reaching highs of above 25˚ C on five or more consecutive days at the same location.
So where in Ireland is likely to see widespread temperatures with maxima in excess of 25˚ C over the coming 5 day period?
From at least Wednesday the 10th through Sunday the 14th, maximum temperatures above 25˚ C look very likely for much of Munster and Leinster, and in large parts of these provinces, temperatures are likely to reach the upper 20’s for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday.
There is an exception to be made here; even though winds over land will be quite low, sea breezes will set up especially along east and south-east coasts and this will limit the maximum temperatures to the lower 20’s close to the shoreline.
Over Connacht and Ulster maximum temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 20’s on Wednesday and Thursday, however maximum temperatures will rise to the mid 20’s or a little higher from Friday onwards, so while temperatures may rise above 25˚ C in some parts over the coming 5 days it is unlikely that at any one station this will happen on all 5 days and thus will fall short of the heatwave criteria.
Sea fog may linger locally on all coasts at times also and that will limit maximum temperatures in these locations.
Uncertainty increases as we progress through Sunday and into the early days of next week with a slight chance of thunderstorms later on Sunday and into Monday, likely heralding a return to cooler near average temperatures.
Where will be warmest and are there any high temperature warnings?
Much of Munster and Leinster will see temperatures rise into the upper 20’s later in the week, although coastal fringes will remain slightly less warm. A status yellow high temperature warning has been issued with highs likely to exceed 27 degrees over a large area for more than 2 successive days, beginning on Thursday, while night time lows will remain above 15°C for much of the night time hours over the same region. As the week progresses and the forecast becomes more certain, some counties further to the north and west like Galway and Roscommon may be added also.
Will the record for highest temperature in August be broken?
The highest August temperature was set 27 years ago on Sunday 2nd August 1995 at Oak Park, Co. Carlow (11.3°C above its 1981-2010 long-term-average), with 31.5°C.
Oak Park will likely be one station to watch again later this week, especially on Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of exceeding the August record temperature is quite low. However, temperatures exceeding 30°C locally cannot be ruled out.
Weather extreme records for Ireland
What’s the highest temperature of 2022 so far?
Phoenix Park, Co Dublin observed at 14:40 Irish time (13:40 UTC) on Monday 18 July 2022 a shade maximum air temperature of 33.0 °C which is 12.8 °C above its 1981-1981 long-term average (LTA) of 20.2 °C.
Update by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022
How is the heatwave evolving?
All areas in Ireland are now expected to become very warm or hot from tomorrow onwards, and so the Status Yellow temperature warning has been extended to all counties from 12:00 Friday until 06:00 Sunday.
Wednesday temperatures:
As Paul predicted, Oak Park in Carlow was the station to watch as it recorded the highest temperature yesterday of 29.2 degrees Celsius.
50% of stations in Met Eireann’s TUSCON station network reached 25 degrees, signalling the likely start of a heatwave, with mainly coastal stations remaining below the threshold.
Thursday temperatures:
Oak Park in Carlow is again today’s hottest station, recording 30.0°C at 1500, just below the record for August, which remains at 31.5°C for the time being.
So far today 57% of TUSCON stations have reached at least 25°C, signalling more widespread hot temperatures today.
Has the weekend forecast changed?
Very little has changed for the weekend forecast and we remain on track for this spell of hot weather to reach heatwave criteria, as daily temperature maxima will very likely remain above 25°C.
Saturday:
Sunday:
The Breakdown:
The high pressure system largely responsible for the spell of hot weather will likely break down on Sunday, with medium-range models predicting low pressure to push up from the southeast and bring possibly heavy and thundery showers on Sunday evening.
What are the major impacts and concerns for this potential heatwave?
Unfortunately there have been a number of water related fatalities this year, and it is therefore paramount that water safety is at the forefront of our minds when it comes to enjoying the warm conditions, or seeking relief when it gets too hot.
Please follow water safety guidelines and be vigilant of those around you. Check the latest sea area and inland lakes forecasts here.
Sea area forecast
Inland lakes
Water Safety Ireland
The UV index will be high through the coming days and limiting exposure is advised, especially for children and vulnerable adults.
UV Index
UV Index legend – Healthy Ireland
Average UV and temperatures rise and fall during the day during Summer
Hydration is once again very important through this period as it will also remain very warm and muggy at night time. This applies to farm animals and pets also.
With ground conditions becoming very dry over the course of the summer, water tables are low and water should be conserved where possible. So try and only use water where necessary and avoid wastage.
With the very dry conditions and the gradual increase in temperatures exacerbating that, fire risk will be high so always make sure to properly extinguish barbeques, and avoid lighting open fires in wooded or grassland areas.
Below is a guide to fire weather conditions
Fire weather index
Please remember that warm or hot spells like this actually contribute the greatest weather related risk to life, so while it can be a welcome event for some, please be cautious to the many risks to your health and safety.
For full information on government guidance to staying safe in summer, please consult the Be Summer-Ready booklet.
With some sweltering heat on the way, what is causing it and what can you expect?
**Update 1600 Monday**
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in the early 1800s, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Sweltering heat forecast from 17th to 19th July – what to expect
by Meteorologist Paul Downes
While Europe has been basking in what seems like an eternal heat wave all summer long, Ireland has seen mostly a very average summer. Over the next few days however a combination of factors will help to steer those higher temperatures our way, if only for a relatively brief spell of very warm temperatures.
So what is causing it?
ECMWF-Temperature and geopotential height forecast.
Initially a portion of the Azores High will extend from the southwest over Ireland for the weekend. It will bring a rise in temperatures but still hold the warmer air to the south. As the high pressure moves away to the east, the anticyclonic, or clockwise rotation will steer up air from the southeast, but the real contributing factor is how it interacts with a low pressure system developing off the coast of Portugal and gradually meandering northwards. The cyclonic or anticlockwise flow of the low working in conjuction with the anticyclonic flow from the high will generate a strong surge of warm air between both systems thus pushing the warm air towards Ireland, transporting the airmass that has brought exceptional temperatures to Europe, towards Ireland.
What temperatures should we expect?
While the high builds in on Friday and Saturday the high temperatures will range generally in the low to mid 20’s. There will also be some upper cloud at times making sunshine a little hazy and there is a chance of a few showers too.
As the high begins to drift a little to the east on Sunday, temperatures will rise to mid to upper 20’s with temperatures possibly surpassing 30 locally on Monday. There is a little more uncertainty regarding Tuesday but it does look like it will be another hot day and perhaps as hot if not hotter than Monday. While this warmer air moves in our direction there will be the chance of a few thundery bursts especially on Tuesday.
Maximum temperatures Saturday to Sunday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Sunday to Monday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Monday to Tuesday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Tuesday to Wednesday – ECMWF
With temperatures soaring, it is important to remain hydrated and be Sun Smart, that goes for animals as well as ourselves. Be prepared and remember to Be Summer Ready
The night time temperature will also be very warm and humid with temperatures on Sunday and Monday night not likely to fall below the mid to high teens and in some areas they may not fall below 20°C, which is known as a Tropical night.
Status Yellow High Temperature Warning Issued
We have issued a Status Yellow High Temperature warning for Ireland.
On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday exceptionally warm weather will occur over Ireland with daytime temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees generally and possibly up to 32 degrees in places on Monday. Night time temperatures will range from 15 to 20 degrees.
Impacts:
• Heat stress, especially for the more vulnerable of the population
• High Solar UV index
• Risk of water related incidents
See D.A.F.M. Fire Danger Notice and read full safety advice on www.gov.ie/summerready
The Breakdown
Currently it looks as if the breakdown will happen on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the Low pressure system moves up over Ireland steering in cooler air from the west for the rest of the week. This will also bring some wet conditions on Wednesday.
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in 1891, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Ireland’s record Temperature
33.3°C Kilkenny (Kilkenny Castle) 26th June 1887
Heatwave in parts of Europe June 2022
Issued Tuesday 21 June 2022
What brought the heat to the south-western part of the continent?
High pressure ridge already formed in the South West Europe by 12 June 2022, with an Atlantic low-pressure system between the Azores islands and Madeira, which caused the uprising of warm air in western Europe (source: WMO). This ridge did not move and the temperatures rose gradually day to day. Maximum temperatures were often above 30°C and 8 to 10°C higher than the climatological average.
WMO Tweet
Provisional temperature records
Saint-Jean-De-Minervois reached 40°C on 16 June, earliest every 40°C in France. Cottbus, Germany temperature 140 year-old record was broken with 39.2°C on 19 June 2022 (since 1888, previous record was 38.9°C set on 29 July 1921). Up to 43°C was observed in Andalusia, Spain. A June temperature record was broken for the western part of Austria with 36.5°C. High temperature records were also set in Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland.
The heatwave is expected to come to the rest of central and south Europe in the next few days. While a Saharan dust storm will deteriorate air quality in southern France, Italy, Balearic Islands, Spain & the Balkan Peninsula. (source: CopernicusEU) .
Read more
“Climate projection models suggest that heatwaves as likely to become more frequent, longer and more intense, start earlier and finish later than in the past.” Keith Lambkin, Senior Climatologist.
Why did Ireland not achieve these high temperatures?
On Saturday, a front lay over the southeast of the country which slowly cleared south-eastwards. A moderate northwest breeze which felt cool and kept the temperatures low. On Sunday, there was a depression of 999 hPa centred to the northwest of Scotland which was tracking eastward. So the air across Ireland is flowing eastward, keeping the continental heat away from our shores.
What is a climatological heatwave in Ireland?
In terms of climate monitoring, a heatwave occurs at a station when there five (5) consecutive days or more observe a daily maximum temperature over 25 degrees Celsius (> 25 °C).
In general in Ireland, heatwaves occur in June, July and August. There has been only one instance of a heatwave beginning in May (Glenties Hatchery, Co Donegal in 2012) and four starting in September, all within the first 2 weeks – one occurring in 1959 and the others occurred in 1991. The peak month for heatwaves in Ireland is July. The average heatwaves is 6 days long. It would be rare to have a heatwave longer than 9 days. The longest heatwave observed is 14 days in Laois and Offaly in August 1976.
Temperatures in June 2022 so far
The highest daily maximum shaded air temperature of 2022 so far is 23.9°C which occurred on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Phoenix Park, Co Dublin.
Currently June 2022 is two thirds completed and is 41st warmest June on record (Island of Ireland long-term series, 123 years) with an average temperature to yesterday of 13.7°C. This value is a half degree above June’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and is currently on average to the 1991-2020 June average. Typically in Ireland, we would expect warmer temperatures towards the end of the month, as the summer progresses. So we are expecting June 2022 to be warmer than 41st warmest. We will have to wait another 10 days to find out however.
June Island of Ireland long-term temperature anomalies (June 2022 up to 20 June only)
What’s in store for the coming days of June 2022
Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings:
National Forecast
UV Index
Weather Warnings
May 2022 highlights:
May 2022 was provisionally Ireland’s 3rd warmest on record. The average temperature being 12.6°C, which is 1.9°C above May’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Temperature data and news:
Third warmest May in 123 years – May 2022
What we measure – Temperature
Other resources:
climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-may-2022
www.ifrc.org/heat-action-day
Today is the #SummerSolstice and #ShowYourStripes Day. Source: showyourstripes.info/l/europe/ireland
A sunny, settled and mild week ahead - Tuesday 22 March 2022
High pressure over Europe will become centred over Ireland in the coming days, bringing a good deal of dry and mild weather along with plenty of sunshine.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “The dry and bright weather that we’ve had over the past few days won’t be going anywhere this week. High pressure is going to stay very firmly in charge so we can generally expect plenty of sunshine and little or no rain.”
“Some very weak fronts will drift into western and northern areas later this week so it’ll be a bit cloudier there at times with a few spots of drizzle but any accumulations will be small. So, even though it won’t be wall-to-wall sunshine, it will be very pleasant still.”
Daytime temperatures will be on the mild side for March and at night temperatures will drop into the low single figures, so a few patches of grass frost are still possible, especially when the skies are clear.
Aoife continued: “It’s the daytime temperatures that are notable though. The average maximum temperatures for this time of year are around 11 or 12 degrees, but the combination of a relatively mild airmass and good spells of sunshine mean that top temperatures this week will widely get into the mid-teens, even hitting the high teens at times.”
This current spell of settled weather looks to last into at least this weekend. Aoife explained: “Although there’s a bit of uncertainty later this weekend, there’s no real sign of this high pressure breaking down until early next week at least. So, this really lovely spell of spring weather won’t be going anywhere too quickly.”
UV and Pollen forecasts for 2022 begin this week
With spring in full force and plenty of sunshine across the country this week, pollen and UV levels will start to increase. You can now find the latest UV and pollen forecasts for 3 days ahead on the Met Éireann website and app.
For more information on staying safe in the sun please visit our UV Index page.
An unsettled weekend in store - Thursday 10th March 2022
After a changeable week, our weather will remain mixed as we head into the weekend with the potential for heavy rain in some places but also some drier and brighter weather too.
Met Éireann Meteorologist Emer Flood said: “An active jet stream will continue to steer Atlantic low-pressure systems in our direction over the coming days, these will bring spells of heavy rain and strong winds at times.
“Heavy rain will move into the southwest on Thursday night, becoming widespread Friday morning which may lead to localised surface flooding. There is also potential for further heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend with the possibility of warnings being issued. We’re advising everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast for the coming days.”
A yellow rain warning is in place for many southern and western counties from 15:00 on Saturday afternoon until around midnight, where heavy rain along with strong winds will bring a risk of flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
On Friday, rain will be quite widespread and heavy in places, slowly clearing northeastwards in the afternoon. This will be followed by heavy showers with the potential for thunderstorms and hail, which could lead to some localised flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
Some heavy or prolonged showers will continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Otherwise, Saturday will start off dry and bright in many areas. However later in the day a low-pressure system will approach from the southwest, with cloud building and winds strengthening as rain arrives across the southern half of the country by evening. Rain may turn to sleet or snow in parts, especially over high ground. Sunday will be wet and windy for many as this same low-pressure system slowly pushes north over Ireland with further falls of sleet or snow possible locally.
Looking ahead to next week there are signs of a quieter and more settled spell on Monday and Tuesday, though this may be short-lived as things once again turn more unsettled around midweek.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Cold snap to bring strong winds and snow - Wednesday 23rd February 2022
A brief cold snap on the way on Wednesday evening and Thursday, with wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow along with strong and gusty winds leading to some impacts in areas.
A cold front moving across Ireland this afternoon (Wednesday 23rd) will introduce a much colder and unstable polar maritime airmass tonight and tomorrow. Met Éireann has issued several yellow weather warnings including yellow level snow/ice and wind warnings. These warnings are in place for many northern and western counties for tonight and Thursday.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood said, “Temperatures will drop quite quickly this evening with the chance of frost and ice forming, especially for inland and rural areas.
“It’ll be windy tonight too especially in northern and western areas, this helping to drive wintry showers of snow, sleet and hail inland. Some areas especially in the northwest will see some snow accumulations of a few centimetres to lower levels, accumulations elsewhere will be mainly confined to high ground.
“It’ll remain very cold and windy across the country on Thursday with continued snow showers, this leading to treacherous driving conditions from icy stretches and reduced visibility on the roads in places. This polar maritime airmass is quite unstable so we could see some hail and lightning at times throughout Thursday too.”
Temperatures on Thursday will be limited to around 3 to 7 degrees, with the brisk northwesterly winds making it feel much colder.
The Met Office has also issued a snow and lightning warning for Northern Ireland through Wednesday and Thursday.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, Emer continued: “Following this cold spell, temperatures will recover on Friday and into the weekend with highs of around 8 to 10 degrees. Although there is some rain in the forecast over the weekend, much of this will fall overnight so there’ll be decent spell of dry and bright weather around over the weekend too.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
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