by Paul Downes, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann. Issued 9th August 2022
(Updated by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022)
HARMONIE maximum and minimum air temperature forecast – Thursday 11th to Sunday 14th august
High pressure will generally dominate our weather over the coming days, so as it’s warming up once again, what are we to expect with this spike in temperatures?
First off, will this be a heat wave?
Well for the first time this summer we can say with a high degree of confidence that heatwave criteria will be met in some parts of the country.
So what exactly defines a heat wave?
The definition of a heat wave in Ireland is shaded air temperatures reaching highs of above 25˚ C on five or more consecutive days at the same location.
So where in Ireland is likely to see widespread temperatures with maxima in excess of 25˚ Cover the coming 5 day period?
From at least Wednesday the 10th through Sunday the 14th, maximum temperatures above 25˚ C look very likely for much of Munster and Leinster, and in large parts of these provinces, temperatures are likely to reach the upper 20’s for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday.
There is an exception to be made here; even though winds over land will be quite low, sea breezes will set up especially along east and south-east coasts and this will limit the maximum temperatures to the lower 20’s close to the shoreline.
Over Connacht and Ulster maximum temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 20’s on Wednesday and Thursday, however maximum temperatures will rise to the mid 20’s or a little higher from Friday onwards, so while temperatures may rise above 25˚ C in some parts over the coming 5 days it is unlikely that at any one station this will happen on all 5 days and thus will fall short of the heatwave criteria.
Sea fog may linger locally on all coasts at times also and that will limit maximum temperatures in these locations.
Uncertainty increases as we progress through Sunday and into the early days of next week with a slight chance of thunderstorms later on Sunday and into Monday, likely heralding a return to cooler near average temperatures.
Where will be warmest and are there any high temperature warnings?
Much of Munster and Leinster will see temperatures rise into the upper 20’s later in the week, although coastal fringes will remain slightly less warm. A status yellow high temperature warning has been issued with highs likely to exceed 27 degrees over a large area for more than 2 successive days, beginning on Thursday, while night time lows will remain above 15°C for much of the night time hours over the same region. As the week progresses and the forecast becomes more certain, some counties further to the north and west like Galway and Roscommon may be added also.
Will the record for highest temperature in August be broken?
The highest August temperature was set 27 years ago on Sunday 2nd August 1995 at Oak Park, Co. Carlow (11.3°C above its 1981-2010 long-term-average), with 31.5°C.
Oak Park will likely be one station to watch again later this week, especially on Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of exceeding the August record temperature is quite low. However, temperatures exceeding 30°C locally cannot be ruled out.
Phoenix Park, Co Dublin observed at 14:40 Irish time (13:40 UTC) on Monday 18 July 2022 a shade maximum air temperature of 33.0 °C which is 12.8 °C above its 1981-1981 long-term average (LTA) of 20.2 °C.
Update by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022
How is the heatwave evolving?
All areas in Ireland are now expected to become very warm or hot from tomorrow onwards, and so the Status Yellow temperature warning has been extended to all counties from 12:00 Friday until 06:00 Sunday.
Wednesday temperatures:
As Paul predicted, Oak Park in Carlow was the station to watch as it recorded the highest temperature yesterday of 29.2 degrees Celsius.
50% of stations in Met Eireann’s TUSCON station network reached 25 degrees, signalling the likely start of a heatwave, with mainly coastal stations remaining below the threshold.
Thursday temperatures:
Oak Park in Carlow is again today’s hottest station, recording 30.0°C at 1500, just below the record for August, which remains at 31.5°C for the time being.
So far today 57% of TUSCON stations have reached at least 25°C, signalling more widespread hot temperatures today.
Has the weekend forecast changed?
Very little has changed for the weekend forecast and we remain on track for this spell of hot weather to reach heatwave criteria, as daily temperature maxima will very likely remain above 25°C.
Saturday:
Sunday:
The Breakdown:
The high pressure system largely responsible for the spell of hot weather will likely break down on Sunday, with medium-range models predicting low pressure to push up from the southeast and bring possibly heavy and thundery showers on Sunday evening.
What are the major impacts and concerns for this potential heatwave?
Water safety
Unfortunately there have been a number of water related fatalities this year, and it is therefore paramount that water safety is at the forefront of our minds when it comes to enjoying the warm conditions, or seeking relief when it gets too hot.
Please follow water safety guidelines and be vigilant of those around you. Check the latest sea area and inland lakes forecasts here.
Average UV and temperatures rise and fall during the day during Summer
Hydration is once again very important through this period as it will also remain very warm and muggy at night time. This applies to farm animals and pets also.
Conservation of water and fire risk
With ground conditions becoming very dry over the course of the summer, water tables are low and water should be conserved where possible. So try and only use water where necessary and avoid wastage.
With the very dry conditions and the gradual increase in temperatures exacerbating that, fire risk will be high so always make sure to properly extinguish barbeques, and avoid lighting open fires in wooded or grassland areas.
Please remember that warm or hot spells like this actually contribute the greatest weather related risk to life, so while it can be a welcome event for some, please be cautious to the many risks to your health and safety.
For full information on government guidance to staying safe in summer, please consult the Be Summer-Ready booklet.
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in the early 1800s, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
8°C above its long-term average (LTA)
2nd highest temperature on record for Ireland, being 0.3°C below the all-time record of 33.3°C observed at Kilkenny Castle on Sun 26 June 1887
highest in the 21st century – beating Elphin, Co. Roscommon’s record of 32.3°C on Wednesday 19 July 2006
higher than any temperature of the 20th century, which was 32.5 °C at Boora, Co. Offaly on Tuesday 29 Jun 1976
highest temperature ever recorded in Dublin
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Sweltering heat forecast from 17th to 19th July – what to expect
by Meteorologist Paul Downes
While Europe has been basking in what seems like an eternal heat wave all summer long, Ireland has seen mostly a very average summer. Over the next few days however a combination of factors will help to steer those higher temperatures our way, if only for a relatively brief spell of very warm temperatures.
So what is causing it?
ECMWF-Temperature and geopotential height forecast.
Initially a portion of the Azores High will extend from the southwest over Ireland for the weekend. It will bring a rise in temperatures but still hold the warmer air to the south. As the high pressure moves away to the east, the anticyclonic, or clockwise rotation will steer up air from the southeast, but the real contributing factor is how it interacts with a low pressure system developing off the coast of Portugal and gradually meandering northwards. The cyclonic or anticlockwise flow of the low working in conjuction with the anticyclonic flow from the high will generate a strong surge of warm air between both systems thus pushing the warm air towards Ireland, transporting the airmass that has brought exceptional temperatures to Europe, towards Ireland.
What temperatures should we expect?
While the high builds in on Friday and Saturday the high temperatures will range generally in the low to mid 20’s. There will also be some upper cloud at times making sunshine a little hazy and there is a chance of a few showers too.
As the high begins to drift a little to the east on Sunday, temperatures will rise to mid to upper 20’s with temperatures possibly surpassing 30 locally on Monday. There is a little more uncertainty regarding Tuesday but it does look like it will be another hot day and perhaps as hot if not hotter than Monday. While this warmer air moves in our direction there will be the chance of a few thundery bursts especially on Tuesday.
Maximum temperatures Saturday to Sunday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Sunday to Monday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Monday to Tuesday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Tuesday to Wednesday – ECMWF
With temperatures soaring, it is important to remain hydrated and be Sun Smart, that goes for animals as well as ourselves. Be prepared and remember to Be Summer Ready
The night time temperature will also be very warm and humid with temperatures on Sunday and Monday night not likely to fall below the mid to high teens and in some areas they may not fall below 20°C, which is known as a Tropical night.
Status Yellow High Temperature Warning Issued
We have issued a Status Yellow High Temperature warning for Ireland.
On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday exceptionally warm weather will occur over Ireland with daytime temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees generally and possibly up to 32 degrees in places on Monday. Night time temperatures will range from 15 to 20 degrees.
Impacts:
• Heat stress, especially for the more vulnerable of the population
• High Solar UV index
• Risk of water related incidents
Currently it looks as if the breakdown will happen on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the Low pressure system moves up over Ireland steering in cooler air from the west for the rest of the week. This will also bring some wet conditions on Wednesday.
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in 1891, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
12.8°C above its long-term average (LTA)
2nd highest temperature on record for Ireland, being 0.3°C below the all-time record of 33.3°C observed at Kilkenny Castle on Sun 26 June 1887
highest in the 21st century – beating Elphin, Co. Roscommon’s record of 32.3°C on Wednesday 19 July 2006
higher than any temperature of the 20th century, which was 32.5 °C at Boora, Co. Offaly on Tuesday 29 Jun 1976
highest temperature ever recorded in Dublin
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
What brought the heat to the south-western part of the continent?
High pressure ridge already formed in the South West Europe by 12 June 2022, with an Atlantic low-pressure system between the Azores islands and Madeira, which caused the uprising of warm air in western Europe (source: WMO). This ridge did not move and the temperatures rose gradually day to day. Maximum temperatures were often above 30°C and 8 to 10°C higher than the climatological average.
WMO Tweet
Provisional temperature records
Saint-Jean-De-Minervois reached 40°C on 16 June, earliest every 40°C in France. Cottbus, Germany temperature 140 year-old record was broken with 39.2°C on 19 June 2022 (since 1888, previous record was 38.9°C set on 29 July 1921). Up to 43°C was observed in Andalusia, Spain. A June temperature record was broken for the western part of Austria with 36.5°C. High temperature records were also set in Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland.
The heatwave is expected to come to the rest of central and south Europe in the next few days. While a Saharan dust storm will deteriorate air quality in southern France, Italy, Balearic Islands, Spain & the Balkan Peninsula. (source: CopernicusEU) .
“Climate projection models suggest that heatwaves as likely to become more frequent, longer and more intense, start earlier and finish later than in the past.” Keith Lambkin, Senior Climatologist.
Why did Ireland not achieve these high temperatures?
On Saturday, a front lay over the southeast of the country which slowly cleared south-eastwards. A moderate northwest breeze which felt cool and kept the temperatures low. On Sunday, there was a depression of 999 hPa centred to the northwest of Scotland which was tracking eastward. So the air across Ireland is flowing eastward, keeping the continental heat away from our shores.
What is a climatological heatwave in Ireland?
In terms of climate monitoring, a heatwave occurs at a station when there five (5) consecutive days or more observe a daily maximum temperature over 25 degrees Celsius (> 25 °C).
In general in Ireland, heatwaves occur in June, July and August. There has been only one instance of a heatwave beginning in May (Glenties Hatchery, Co Donegal in 2012) and four starting in September, all within the first 2 weeks – one occurring in 1959 and the others occurred in 1991. The peak month for heatwaves in Ireland is July. The average heatwaves is 6 days long. It would be rare to have a heatwave longer than 9 days. The longest heatwave observed is 14 days in Laois and Offaly in August 1976.
Temperatures in June 2022 so far
The highest daily maximum shaded air temperature of 2022 so far is 23.9°C which occurred on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Phoenix Park, Co Dublin.
Currently June 2022 is two thirds completed and is 41st warmest June on record (Island of Ireland long-term series, 123 years) with an average temperature to yesterday of 13.7°C. This value is a half degree above June’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and is currently on average to the 1991-2020 June average. Typically in Ireland, we would expect warmer temperatures towards the end of the month, as the summer progresses. So we are expecting June 2022 to be warmer than 41st warmest. We will have to wait another 10 days to find out however.
The warmest June occurred 82 years ago in 1940 with 15.4°C.
The coldest June occurred 50 years ago in 1972 with 11.1°C.
Of the ten warmest Junes on record, half have occurred from 2005 onwards. Of the 41 warmest Junes, just over a third have occurred from 2003 onwards.
No Junes in the 21st century (2001-2022) appear in the coldest ten Junes. Of the 41 coldest Junes, only 5% have occurred from 2011 onwards.
June Island of Ireland long-term temperature anomalies (June 2022 up to 20 June only)
What’s in store for the coming days of June 2022
Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings:
May 2022 was provisionally Ireland’s 3rd warmest on record. The average temperature being 12.6°C, which is 1.9°C above May’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Across Europe, temperatures in May 2022 varied considerably compared against the average May values for 1991-2020. The Sahara influence again meant hotter than average in the far west of Europe. While many countries, France, Spain and Portugal broke records.
Globally, May was the fifth warmest on record, joint with May 2018 and 2021.
Following the current spell of warm and dry weather it’s going to turn much colder by mid-week as a cooler airmass arrives across Ireland from Scandinavia.
The highest temperature of 2022 so far was recorded on Sunday, with 18.9 degrees reached at Newport Furnace, Co. Mayo. While the pleasant weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday, there is the chance of a few showers at times mainly over the eastern half of the country, generated by more unstable air. However the most significant change will come on Wednesday as a northerly airflow establishes across the country feeding in noticeably colder air from Scandinavia.
Met Eireann meteorologist, Brandon Creagh, said: “It’s going to get noticeably colder from Wednesday as an anticyclone over Iceland will bring cold northerly winds over Ireland on Wednesday and into Thursday. Showers will develop over the eastern half of the country with a slight risk of wintry precipitation over high ground.”
Airmass chart for Thursday 31st March showing a cold (blue) northerly airmass over Ireland, originating from Scandinavia.
The colder spell may come as a bit of a surprise to some as temperatures over the last week have been well into the mid to high teens – above average for the time of year, however from Wednesday we’ll see daytime temperatures drop back down into single figures.
Meteorologist Brandon Creagh added: “It’ll be important to bring plants indoors that are sensitive to cold. Also, farmers and gardeners should be aware that growing conditions will not be as good as they have been recently.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
High pressure over Europe will become centred over Ireland in the coming days, bringing a good deal of dry and mild weather along with plenty of sunshine.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “The dry and bright weather that we’ve had over the past few days won’t be going anywhere this week. High pressure is going to stay very firmly in charge so we can generally expect plenty of sunshine and little or no rain.”
“Some very weak fronts will drift into western and northern areas later this week so it’ll be a bit cloudier there at times with a few spots of drizzle but any accumulations will be small. So, even though it won’t be wall-to-wall sunshine, it will be very pleasant still.”
Daytime temperatures will be on the mild side for March and at night temperatures will drop into the low single figures, so a few patches of grass frost are still possible, especially when the skies are clear.
Aoife continued: “It’s the daytime temperatures that are notable though. The average maximum temperatures for this time of year are around 11 or 12 degrees, but the combination of a relatively mild airmass and good spells of sunshine mean that top temperatures this week will widely get into the mid-teens, even hitting the high teens at times.”
This current spell of settled weather looks to last into at least this weekend. Aoife explained: “Although there’s a bit of uncertainty later this weekend, there’s no real sign of this high pressure breaking down until early next week at least. So, this really lovely spell of spring weather won’t be going anywhere too quickly.”
UV and Pollen forecasts for 2022 begin this week
With spring in full force and plenty of sunshine across the country this week, pollen and UV levels will start to increase. You can now find the latest UV and pollen forecasts for 3 days ahead on the Met Éireann website and app.
For more information on staying safe in the sun please visit our UV Index page.
After a changeable week, our weather will remain mixed as we head into the weekend with the potential for heavy rain in some places but also some drier and brighter weather too.
Met Éireann Meteorologist Emer Flood said: “An active jet stream will continue to steer Atlantic low-pressure systems in our direction over the coming days, these will bring spells of heavy rain and strong winds at times.
“Heavy rain will move into the southwest on Thursday night, becoming widespread Friday morning which may lead to localised surface flooding. There is also potential for further heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend with the possibility of warnings being issued. We’re advising everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast for the coming days.”
A yellow rain warning is in place for many southern and western counties from 15:00 on Saturday afternoon until around midnight, where heavy rain along with strong winds will bring a risk of flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
On Friday, rain will be quite widespread and heavy in places, slowly clearing northeastwards in the afternoon. This will be followed by heavy showers with the potential for thunderstorms and hail, which could lead to some localised flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
Some heavy or prolonged showers will continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Otherwise, Saturday will start off dry and bright in many areas. However later in the day a low-pressure system will approach from the southwest, with cloud building and winds strengthening as rain arrives across the southern half of the country by evening. Rain may turn to sleet or snow in parts, especially over high ground. Sunday will be wet and windy for many as this same low-pressure system slowly pushes north over Ireland with further falls of sleet or snow possible locally.
Looking ahead to next week there are signs of a quieter and more settled spell on Monday and Tuesday, though this may be short-lived as things once again turn more unsettled around midweek.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
A brief cold snap on the way on Wednesday evening and Thursday, with wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow along with strong and gusty winds leading to some impacts in areas.
A cold front moving across Ireland this afternoon (Wednesday 23rd) will introduce a much colder and unstable polar maritime airmass tonight and tomorrow. Met Éireann has issued several yellow weather warnings including yellow level snow/ice and wind warnings. These warnings are in place for many northern and western counties for tonight and Thursday.
Staying unsettled & turning cold over the next few days with wintry showers on Wednesday night & Thursday.
Some snow is likely in places & showers will be heavy with possible hail & thunder too.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood said, “Temperatures will drop quite quickly this evening with the chance of frost and ice forming, especially for inland and rural areas.
“It’ll be windy tonight too especially in northern and western areas, this helping to drive wintry showers of snow, sleet and hail inland. Some areas especially in the northwest will see some snow accumulations of a few centimetres to lower levels, accumulations elsewhere will be mainly confined to high ground.
“It’ll remain very cold and windy across the country on Thursday with continued snow showers, this leading to treacherous driving conditions from icy stretches and reduced visibility on the roads in places. This polar maritime airmass is quite unstable so we could see some hail and lightning at times throughout Thursday too.”
Temperatures on Thursday will be limited to around 3 to 7 degrees, with the brisk northwesterly winds making it feel much colder.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, Emer continued: “Following this cold spell, temperatures will recover on Friday and into the weekend with highs of around 8 to 10 degrees. Although there is some rain in the forecast over the weekend, much of this will fall overnight so there’ll be decent spell of dry and bright weather around over the weekend too.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
After what’s been a fairly settled February so far, our weather will turn increasingly unsettled over the weekend with some wet weather on the way on Sunday and early next week.
Met Éireann have issued yellow wind warnings for Donegal, Galway and Mayo and rain warnings for Cork, Kerry and Galway on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, due to spells of heavy rain and strong winds to mainly southern and western areas. It’ll stay breezy across the country on Saturday with some blustery, heavy showers, followed by a rather wet day across the country on Sunday.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Mark Bowe, said:
“Our weather has been pretty settled so far this year thanks to high pressure never being too far away. But as we head into the weekend and next week we’re going to see a change to more unsettled weather as the jet stream positions itself across Ireland – this will open the door to low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic.”
“We’re keeping a close eye on the weather forecast for Sunday, as a low pressure will swing up from the south bringing outbreaks of rain through the day. There is likely to be some heavy bursts of rain in places which could lead to some localised flooding, but there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty so it’s best to keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings, especially if you have plans this weekend.”
Currently ground conditions are either waterlogged or saturated and further rainfall over the weekend and next week will add to water levels, with the possibility of some localised flooding. You can find out more about current ground conditions here https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs.
Mark continued: “With further low-pressure systems moving our way early next week there is the potential for further spells of wet and windy weather. We’re keeping a close eye on Tuesday in particular as there are signs of heavy rain in the forecast. With ground levels already waterlogged this could lead to some localised impacts from flooding, so stay keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings from Met Éireann for your area.”
Forecast pressure chart for Sunday 20th February at 1800 showing a band of rain and tight isobars across Ireland.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
The weather will continue to be quite active to the end of the year, with strong winds at times, including a windy New Year’s countdown for some.
Persistent rainfall affecting many places today, Thursday, will continue into tonight. There will be some heavy falls which bring a risk of localised flooding. A Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in effect until 5am Friday morning for Cork and Kerry, and another Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in place for Galway and Mayo between 5pm this evening (Thursday) to 1am tonight.
It will also become windy this evening in the south, where southwest winds will increase fresh to strong, and these stronger winds will extend to all areas overnight. Winds will reach near gale force in Atlantic coastal areas, with gale warnings coming into effect for some sea areas overnight.
The strong winds will persist into the morning of New Year’s Eve, Friday, with strong and gusty southwest winds in many areas throughout the morning, reaching near gale force at times. After a mostly cloudy morning with some light rain lingering in parts, the afternoon will be largely dry with bright spells. It will be very mild, with afternoon temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.
Winds will die down to just a manly moderate breeze for the afternoon on Friday, however this calmer period will be quite short lived as winds will be strengthening again later in the evening for the night of New Year’s Eve. Southerly winds will increase fresh to strong early in the night, with strongest winds on Atlantic coasts. It will be wet in places too with outbreaks of rain moving eastwards overnight. Remaining mild overnight with lowest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees.
The weather for the first day of 2022, Saturday, will be quite blustery with showers, some of these heavy. There will be bright and sunny periods too however. It will be breezy with fresh southwest winds, windiest near western coasts with winds remaining strong there. It will continue milder than average, with highest temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees.
Image from Thursday’s 12Z run of Harmonie showing rain (top left) cloud cover (top right), wind field (bottom left) and temperatures (bottom right) for the country at midnight on New Year’s Eve:
Updated by Meteorologist Emer Flood at 3pm on 30th December 2021.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
High pressure will continue to keep our weather settled and largely dry through this weekend and into the early days of Christmas Week, though there are some signs of more unsettled weather from mid-week onwards and possibly turning colder over the Christmas weekend.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Deirdre Lowe, said: “Most of us will enjoy a spell of dry and quiet weather in the lead up to Christmas, it’ll be fairly cloudy though and some spots will see a little patchy mist or drizzle in thicker cloud. It’ll turn a bit colder over the weekend too, with daytime temperatures around 6 to 9 Celsius.”
“It’ll stay fairly cloudy during the nights which should keep frosts at bay, though the odd patch of frost can’t be ruled out where clearer skies develop.”
This settled weather will continue into the early days of next week, though it looks likely that high pressure will gradually break down from around mid-week onwards, turning our weather more unsettled as we get closer to Christmas Day. Whilst there is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast, there are some signs of colder air being dragged across the country over Christmas weekend.
Meteorologist Deirdre Lowe continued: “It’s still too early to say with certainty what weather we can expect on Christmas Day. At the moment it looks like the current blocking high pressure will be replaced by low pressure, increasing the chance of unsettled weather. There’re also some early signs of a possible cold spell over the Christmas period but it’s still very uncertain, so keep an eye on the latest Met Éireann forecast.”
The Met Éireann Podcast ‘White Christmas’ Episode
Listen back to our December 2019 White Christmas episode of The Met Éireann Podcast where Liz and Noel dig into all things snow! We hear about how often we get a white Christmas, how frequent snowfall is in general, and review some of the notable big snow events we’ve experienced in Ireland and around the world.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
– Updated by Meteorologist Liz Walsh at 6 pm on Sunday 5th December 2021
Storm Barra was named by Met Éireann on Sunday morning (5th December 2021) and is expected to affect Ireland during Tuesday and for a time on Wednesday. Multiple hazards will be associated with this system.
Impacts will vary depending on location but will include
Storm force winds in places
High seas and some coastal flooding
Heavy squally falls of rain
Some transient falls of sleet/snow possible, mainly in the northwest.
Some trees down
Structural damage (Secure outdoor furniture and Christmas decorations!)
Disruption to travel/hazardous driving conditions
An orange level wind warning has been issued for Counties Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Clare and Galway valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday, while a yellow level wind warning is in places for all other counties for the same time period. These warnings are likely to be updated and fine-tuned as we come closer to the event as the track of the storm becomes more certain.
Winds will be south to southeast in direction during the early part of the Tuesday and will gradually veer westerly as the day goes on. So the strength of the wind will be dependent on your location and exposure to that particular direction. Some heavy falls of rain are likely too during Tuesday morning, these mainly across southern and southeastern counties with spot flooding possible.
This innocuous –looking area of cloud to the south of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Eastern Canada from earlier today is the nascent site of a low pressure system that will become Storm Barra.
Image courtesy of the NOAA Geos-East Satellite.
The low pressure system will picked up by the Jet Stream and driven across the North Atlantic during Monday arriving along Ireland’s west coast on Tuesday morning. Image courtesy of ECMWF 12Z Run 5/12/2021
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Updated by Meteorologist Gerry Murphy at 4 pm on Saturday 4th December 2021
A deep Atlantic depression will bring very wet and windy weather across Ireland through Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be strong in all areas at times and will reach gale force in coastal areas. Severe and damaging gusts are likely. At the moment the strongest winds are expected to be in western coastal counties of Munster with storm force winds possible at times later on Tuesday.
The strengthening winds will be accompanied by a spell of heavy rain on Tuesday, followed by heavy showers through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of the showers may be of sleet or snow on high ground.
Due to spring tides, very high waves and large surge levels, coastal flooding may occur along Munster and south Connacht coasts.
Possible Impacts
Very strong winds and damaging gusts are likely to bring disruption due to power outages, fallen trees or branches or other debris.
As well as coastal flooding, heavy rain or showers will bring localised flooding. Travel disruption is likely at times due to strong winds, poor visibility, localised flooding and poor surface conditions due to hail, sleet or possible snow on high ground.
Detailed forecast
A storm depression will develop in the mid-Atlantic on Monday as a result of dynamic forcing from the Jetstream in the upper atmosphere. The low pressure system will rapidly deepen as it tracks northeastwards over the Atlantic and approaches Ireland on a strong westerly Jetstream.
As the depression approaches Ireland, it will slow down and become relatively slow moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. The exact track and timing of the depression is not definite. At the moment it is expected to reach a minimum pressure of 952 hPa on Tuesday afternoon at round 100 nautical miles or 185 Km to the west of Ireland. The depression will slowly fill and its central pressure gradually increase as it moves slowly eastwards over Ireland through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually clearing southeastwards through Wednesday night.
The development and track of the depression through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday is shown in the charts below.
Wind Forecast
As the depression approaches Ireland, southerly winds will strengthen through Monday night and early Tuesday with gales or strong gales developing along all Irish coasts and the Irish Sea. Cyclonic variable winds will develop as the depression moves over Ireland. Later Tuesday and through Tuesday night, very strong westerly winds will develop in western coastal counties. Currently it looks like the strongest winds will occur in western coastal counties of Munster and Co. Galway.
This is indicated on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for wind gusts and also on the deterministic forecasts below.
Rainfall Forecast
The timing of rainfall over Ireland associated with the Atlantic depression is uncertain. Current model forecast runs indicate that heavy rain will develop in the west of Ireland later on Monday night and move eastwards across the country on Tuesday morning. Showers will follow from the west on Tuesday afternoon and will continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some will be wintry, falling as hail or sleet with snow possible on high ground. There will also be a possibility of isolated thunderstorms.
Coastal Conditions
We are in a period of Spring Tides, and coastal levels are expected to be ELEVATED on Tuesday as a deep low pressure system approaches from the Atlantic resulting in the coincidence of strong winds, high wave and large surge levels. The largest surge levels are expected on Atlantic coasts. There is still uncertainty between model runs on the timing and path of the low pressure system, which will influence the surge level expected locally along the coast, and the uncertainty should reduce as future model runs become available.
Meteorologist's Commentary
Heatwave conditions very likely this week - August 2022
by Paul Downes, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann. Issued 9th August 2022
(Updated by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022)
HARMONIE maximum and minimum air temperature forecast – Thursday 11th to Sunday 14th august
High pressure will generally dominate our weather over the coming days, so as it’s warming up once again, what are we to expect with this spike in temperatures?
First off, will this be a heat wave?
Well for the first time this summer we can say with a high degree of confidence that heatwave criteria will be met in some parts of the country.
So what exactly defines a heat wave?
The definition of a heat wave in Ireland is shaded air temperatures reaching highs of above 25˚ C on five or more consecutive days at the same location.
So where in Ireland is likely to see widespread temperatures with maxima in excess of 25˚ C over the coming 5 day period?
From at least Wednesday the 10th through Sunday the 14th, maximum temperatures above 25˚ C look very likely for much of Munster and Leinster, and in large parts of these provinces, temperatures are likely to reach the upper 20’s for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday.
There is an exception to be made here; even though winds over land will be quite low, sea breezes will set up especially along east and south-east coasts and this will limit the maximum temperatures to the lower 20’s close to the shoreline.
Over Connacht and Ulster maximum temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 20’s on Wednesday and Thursday, however maximum temperatures will rise to the mid 20’s or a little higher from Friday onwards, so while temperatures may rise above 25˚ C in some parts over the coming 5 days it is unlikely that at any one station this will happen on all 5 days and thus will fall short of the heatwave criteria.
Sea fog may linger locally on all coasts at times also and that will limit maximum temperatures in these locations.
Uncertainty increases as we progress through Sunday and into the early days of next week with a slight chance of thunderstorms later on Sunday and into Monday, likely heralding a return to cooler near average temperatures.
Where will be warmest and are there any high temperature warnings?
Much of Munster and Leinster will see temperatures rise into the upper 20’s later in the week, although coastal fringes will remain slightly less warm. A status yellow high temperature warning has been issued with highs likely to exceed 27 degrees over a large area for more than 2 successive days, beginning on Thursday, while night time lows will remain above 15°C for much of the night time hours over the same region. As the week progresses and the forecast becomes more certain, some counties further to the north and west like Galway and Roscommon may be added also.
Will the record for highest temperature in August be broken?
The highest August temperature was set 27 years ago on Sunday 2nd August 1995 at Oak Park, Co. Carlow (11.3°C above its 1981-2010 long-term-average), with 31.5°C.
Oak Park will likely be one station to watch again later this week, especially on Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of exceeding the August record temperature is quite low. However, temperatures exceeding 30°C locally cannot be ruled out.
Weather extreme records for Ireland
What’s the highest temperature of 2022 so far?
Phoenix Park, Co Dublin observed at 14:40 Irish time (13:40 UTC) on Monday 18 July 2022 a shade maximum air temperature of 33.0 °C which is 12.8 °C above its 1981-1981 long-term average (LTA) of 20.2 °C.
Update by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022
How is the heatwave evolving?
All areas in Ireland are now expected to become very warm or hot from tomorrow onwards, and so the Status Yellow temperature warning has been extended to all counties from 12:00 Friday until 06:00 Sunday.
Wednesday temperatures:
As Paul predicted, Oak Park in Carlow was the station to watch as it recorded the highest temperature yesterday of 29.2 degrees Celsius.
50% of stations in Met Eireann’s TUSCON station network reached 25 degrees, signalling the likely start of a heatwave, with mainly coastal stations remaining below the threshold.
Thursday temperatures:
Oak Park in Carlow is again today’s hottest station, recording 30.0°C at 1500, just below the record for August, which remains at 31.5°C for the time being.
So far today 57% of TUSCON stations have reached at least 25°C, signalling more widespread hot temperatures today.
Has the weekend forecast changed?
Very little has changed for the weekend forecast and we remain on track for this spell of hot weather to reach heatwave criteria, as daily temperature maxima will very likely remain above 25°C.
Saturday:
Sunday:
The Breakdown:
The high pressure system largely responsible for the spell of hot weather will likely break down on Sunday, with medium-range models predicting low pressure to push up from the southeast and bring possibly heavy and thundery showers on Sunday evening.
What are the major impacts and concerns for this potential heatwave?
Unfortunately there have been a number of water related fatalities this year, and it is therefore paramount that water safety is at the forefront of our minds when it comes to enjoying the warm conditions, or seeking relief when it gets too hot.
Please follow water safety guidelines and be vigilant of those around you. Check the latest sea area and inland lakes forecasts here.
Sea area forecast
Inland lakes
Water Safety Ireland
The UV index will be high through the coming days and limiting exposure is advised, especially for children and vulnerable adults.
UV Index
UV Index legend – Healthy Ireland
Average UV and temperatures rise and fall during the day during Summer
Hydration is once again very important through this period as it will also remain very warm and muggy at night time. This applies to farm animals and pets also.
With ground conditions becoming very dry over the course of the summer, water tables are low and water should be conserved where possible. So try and only use water where necessary and avoid wastage.
With the very dry conditions and the gradual increase in temperatures exacerbating that, fire risk will be high so always make sure to properly extinguish barbeques, and avoid lighting open fires in wooded or grassland areas.
Below is a guide to fire weather conditions
Fire weather index
Please remember that warm or hot spells like this actually contribute the greatest weather related risk to life, so while it can be a welcome event for some, please be cautious to the many risks to your health and safety.
For full information on government guidance to staying safe in summer, please consult the Be Summer-Ready booklet.
With some sweltering heat on the way, what is causing it and what can you expect?
**Update 1600 Monday**
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in the early 1800s, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Sweltering heat forecast from 17th to 19th July – what to expect
by Meteorologist Paul Downes
While Europe has been basking in what seems like an eternal heat wave all summer long, Ireland has seen mostly a very average summer. Over the next few days however a combination of factors will help to steer those higher temperatures our way, if only for a relatively brief spell of very warm temperatures.
So what is causing it?
ECMWF-Temperature and geopotential height forecast.
Initially a portion of the Azores High will extend from the southwest over Ireland for the weekend. It will bring a rise in temperatures but still hold the warmer air to the south. As the high pressure moves away to the east, the anticyclonic, or clockwise rotation will steer up air from the southeast, but the real contributing factor is how it interacts with a low pressure system developing off the coast of Portugal and gradually meandering northwards. The cyclonic or anticlockwise flow of the low working in conjuction with the anticyclonic flow from the high will generate a strong surge of warm air between both systems thus pushing the warm air towards Ireland, transporting the airmass that has brought exceptional temperatures to Europe, towards Ireland.
What temperatures should we expect?
While the high builds in on Friday and Saturday the high temperatures will range generally in the low to mid 20’s. There will also be some upper cloud at times making sunshine a little hazy and there is a chance of a few showers too.
As the high begins to drift a little to the east on Sunday, temperatures will rise to mid to upper 20’s with temperatures possibly surpassing 30 locally on Monday. There is a little more uncertainty regarding Tuesday but it does look like it will be another hot day and perhaps as hot if not hotter than Monday. While this warmer air moves in our direction there will be the chance of a few thundery bursts especially on Tuesday.
Maximum temperatures Saturday to Sunday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Sunday to Monday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Monday to Tuesday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Tuesday to Wednesday – ECMWF
With temperatures soaring, it is important to remain hydrated and be Sun Smart, that goes for animals as well as ourselves. Be prepared and remember to Be Summer Ready
The night time temperature will also be very warm and humid with temperatures on Sunday and Monday night not likely to fall below the mid to high teens and in some areas they may not fall below 20°C, which is known as a Tropical night.
Status Yellow High Temperature Warning Issued
We have issued a Status Yellow High Temperature warning for Ireland.
On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday exceptionally warm weather will occur over Ireland with daytime temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees generally and possibly up to 32 degrees in places on Monday. Night time temperatures will range from 15 to 20 degrees.
Impacts:
• Heat stress, especially for the more vulnerable of the population
• High Solar UV index
• Risk of water related incidents
See D.A.F.M. Fire Danger Notice and read full safety advice on www.gov.ie/summerready
The Breakdown
Currently it looks as if the breakdown will happen on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the Low pressure system moves up over Ireland steering in cooler air from the west for the rest of the week. This will also bring some wet conditions on Wednesday.
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in 1891, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Ireland’s record Temperature
33.3°C Kilkenny (Kilkenny Castle) 26th June 1887
Heatwave in parts of Europe June 2022
Issued Tuesday 21 June 2022
What brought the heat to the south-western part of the continent?
High pressure ridge already formed in the South West Europe by 12 June 2022, with an Atlantic low-pressure system between the Azores islands and Madeira, which caused the uprising of warm air in western Europe (source: WMO). This ridge did not move and the temperatures rose gradually day to day. Maximum temperatures were often above 30°C and 8 to 10°C higher than the climatological average.
WMO Tweet
Provisional temperature records
Saint-Jean-De-Minervois reached 40°C on 16 June, earliest every 40°C in France. Cottbus, Germany temperature 140 year-old record was broken with 39.2°C on 19 June 2022 (since 1888, previous record was 38.9°C set on 29 July 1921). Up to 43°C was observed in Andalusia, Spain. A June temperature record was broken for the western part of Austria with 36.5°C. High temperature records were also set in Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland.
The heatwave is expected to come to the rest of central and south Europe in the next few days. While a Saharan dust storm will deteriorate air quality in southern France, Italy, Balearic Islands, Spain & the Balkan Peninsula. (source: CopernicusEU) .
Read more
“Climate projection models suggest that heatwaves as likely to become more frequent, longer and more intense, start earlier and finish later than in the past.” Keith Lambkin, Senior Climatologist.
Why did Ireland not achieve these high temperatures?
On Saturday, a front lay over the southeast of the country which slowly cleared south-eastwards. A moderate northwest breeze which felt cool and kept the temperatures low. On Sunday, there was a depression of 999 hPa centred to the northwest of Scotland which was tracking eastward. So the air across Ireland is flowing eastward, keeping the continental heat away from our shores.
What is a climatological heatwave in Ireland?
In terms of climate monitoring, a heatwave occurs at a station when there five (5) consecutive days or more observe a daily maximum temperature over 25 degrees Celsius (> 25 °C).
In general in Ireland, heatwaves occur in June, July and August. There has been only one instance of a heatwave beginning in May (Glenties Hatchery, Co Donegal in 2012) and four starting in September, all within the first 2 weeks – one occurring in 1959 and the others occurred in 1991. The peak month for heatwaves in Ireland is July. The average heatwaves is 6 days long. It would be rare to have a heatwave longer than 9 days. The longest heatwave observed is 14 days in Laois and Offaly in August 1976.
Temperatures in June 2022 so far
The highest daily maximum shaded air temperature of 2022 so far is 23.9°C which occurred on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Phoenix Park, Co Dublin.
Currently June 2022 is two thirds completed and is 41st warmest June on record (Island of Ireland long-term series, 123 years) with an average temperature to yesterday of 13.7°C. This value is a half degree above June’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and is currently on average to the 1991-2020 June average. Typically in Ireland, we would expect warmer temperatures towards the end of the month, as the summer progresses. So we are expecting June 2022 to be warmer than 41st warmest. We will have to wait another 10 days to find out however.
June Island of Ireland long-term temperature anomalies (June 2022 up to 20 June only)
What’s in store for the coming days of June 2022
Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings:
National Forecast
UV Index
Weather Warnings
May 2022 highlights:
May 2022 was provisionally Ireland’s 3rd warmest on record. The average temperature being 12.6°C, which is 1.9°C above May’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Temperature data and news:
Third warmest May in 123 years – May 2022
What we measure – Temperature
Other resources:
climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-may-2022
www.ifrc.org/heat-action-day
Today is the #SummerSolstice and #ShowYourStripes Day. Source: showyourstripes.info/l/europe/ireland
Turning colder this week but staying mainly dry
Following the current spell of warm and dry weather it’s going to turn much colder by mid-week as a cooler airmass arrives across Ireland from Scandinavia.
The highest temperature of 2022 so far was recorded on Sunday, with 18.9 degrees reached at Newport Furnace, Co. Mayo. While the pleasant weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday, there is the chance of a few showers at times mainly over the eastern half of the country, generated by more unstable air. However the most significant change will come on Wednesday as a northerly airflow establishes across the country feeding in noticeably colder air from Scandinavia.
Met Eireann meteorologist, Brandon Creagh, said: “It’s going to get noticeably colder from Wednesday as an anticyclone over Iceland will bring cold northerly winds over Ireland on Wednesday and into Thursday. Showers will develop over the eastern half of the country with a slight risk of wintry precipitation over high ground.”
Airmass chart for Thursday 31st March showing a cold (blue) northerly airmass over Ireland, originating from Scandinavia.
The colder spell may come as a bit of a surprise to some as temperatures over the last week have been well into the mid to high teens – above average for the time of year, however from Wednesday we’ll see daytime temperatures drop back down into single figures.
Meteorologist Brandon Creagh added: “It’ll be important to bring plants indoors that are sensitive to cold. Also, farmers and gardeners should be aware that growing conditions will not be as good as they have been recently.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
A sunny, settled and mild week ahead - Tuesday 22 March 2022
High pressure over Europe will become centred over Ireland in the coming days, bringing a good deal of dry and mild weather along with plenty of sunshine.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “The dry and bright weather that we’ve had over the past few days won’t be going anywhere this week. High pressure is going to stay very firmly in charge so we can generally expect plenty of sunshine and little or no rain.”
“Some very weak fronts will drift into western and northern areas later this week so it’ll be a bit cloudier there at times with a few spots of drizzle but any accumulations will be small. So, even though it won’t be wall-to-wall sunshine, it will be very pleasant still.”
Daytime temperatures will be on the mild side for March and at night temperatures will drop into the low single figures, so a few patches of grass frost are still possible, especially when the skies are clear.
Aoife continued: “It’s the daytime temperatures that are notable though. The average maximum temperatures for this time of year are around 11 or 12 degrees, but the combination of a relatively mild airmass and good spells of sunshine mean that top temperatures this week will widely get into the mid-teens, even hitting the high teens at times.”
This current spell of settled weather looks to last into at least this weekend. Aoife explained: “Although there’s a bit of uncertainty later this weekend, there’s no real sign of this high pressure breaking down until early next week at least. So, this really lovely spell of spring weather won’t be going anywhere too quickly.”
UV and Pollen forecasts for 2022 begin this week
With spring in full force and plenty of sunshine across the country this week, pollen and UV levels will start to increase. You can now find the latest UV and pollen forecasts for 3 days ahead on the Met Éireann website and app.
For more information on staying safe in the sun please visit our UV Index page.
St. Patrick's Day Weather - Wednesday 16th March 2022
For the latest on the weather over the long St. Patrick’s Day Bank Holiday weekend please see here.
An unsettled weekend in store - Thursday 10th March 2022
After a changeable week, our weather will remain mixed as we head into the weekend with the potential for heavy rain in some places but also some drier and brighter weather too.
Met Éireann Meteorologist Emer Flood said: “An active jet stream will continue to steer Atlantic low-pressure systems in our direction over the coming days, these will bring spells of heavy rain and strong winds at times.
“Heavy rain will move into the southwest on Thursday night, becoming widespread Friday morning which may lead to localised surface flooding. There is also potential for further heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend with the possibility of warnings being issued. We’re advising everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast for the coming days.”
A yellow rain warning is in place for many southern and western counties from 15:00 on Saturday afternoon until around midnight, where heavy rain along with strong winds will bring a risk of flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
On Friday, rain will be quite widespread and heavy in places, slowly clearing northeastwards in the afternoon. This will be followed by heavy showers with the potential for thunderstorms and hail, which could lead to some localised flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
Some heavy or prolonged showers will continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Otherwise, Saturday will start off dry and bright in many areas. However later in the day a low-pressure system will approach from the southwest, with cloud building and winds strengthening as rain arrives across the southern half of the country by evening. Rain may turn to sleet or snow in parts, especially over high ground. Sunday will be wet and windy for many as this same low-pressure system slowly pushes north over Ireland with further falls of sleet or snow possible locally.
Looking ahead to next week there are signs of a quieter and more settled spell on Monday and Tuesday, though this may be short-lived as things once again turn more unsettled around midweek.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Cold snap to bring strong winds and snow - Wednesday 23rd February 2022
A brief cold snap on the way on Wednesday evening and Thursday, with wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow along with strong and gusty winds leading to some impacts in areas.
A cold front moving across Ireland this afternoon (Wednesday 23rd) will introduce a much colder and unstable polar maritime airmass tonight and tomorrow. Met Éireann has issued several yellow weather warnings including yellow level snow/ice and wind warnings. These warnings are in place for many northern and western counties for tonight and Thursday.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood said, “Temperatures will drop quite quickly this evening with the chance of frost and ice forming, especially for inland and rural areas.
“It’ll be windy tonight too especially in northern and western areas, this helping to drive wintry showers of snow, sleet and hail inland. Some areas especially in the northwest will see some snow accumulations of a few centimetres to lower levels, accumulations elsewhere will be mainly confined to high ground.
“It’ll remain very cold and windy across the country on Thursday with continued snow showers, this leading to treacherous driving conditions from icy stretches and reduced visibility on the roads in places. This polar maritime airmass is quite unstable so we could see some hail and lightning at times throughout Thursday too.”
Temperatures on Thursday will be limited to around 3 to 7 degrees, with the brisk northwesterly winds making it feel much colder.
The Met Office has also issued a snow and lightning warning for Northern Ireland through Wednesday and Thursday.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, Emer continued: “Following this cold spell, temperatures will recover on Friday and into the weekend with highs of around 8 to 10 degrees. Although there is some rain in the forecast over the weekend, much of this will fall overnight so there’ll be decent spell of dry and bright weather around over the weekend too.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Storm Dudley and Storm Eunice on the way this week - 15th February 2022
For the latest on Storm Dudley and Storm Eunice please see our Latest News.
See here for the latest weather warnings from Met Éireann.
Turning more unsettled this weekend and next week - Friday 11th February 2022
After what’s been a fairly settled February so far, our weather will turn increasingly unsettled over the weekend with some wet weather on the way on Sunday and early next week.
Met Éireann have issued yellow wind warnings for Donegal, Galway and Mayo and rain warnings for Cork, Kerry and Galway on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, due to spells of heavy rain and strong winds to mainly southern and western areas. It’ll stay breezy across the country on Saturday with some blustery, heavy showers, followed by a rather wet day across the country on Sunday.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Mark Bowe, said:
“Our weather has been pretty settled so far this year thanks to high pressure never being too far away. But as we head into the weekend and next week we’re going to see a change to more unsettled weather as the jet stream positions itself across Ireland – this will open the door to low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic.”
“We’re keeping a close eye on the weather forecast for Sunday, as a low pressure will swing up from the south bringing outbreaks of rain through the day. There is likely to be some heavy bursts of rain in places which could lead to some localised flooding, but there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty so it’s best to keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings, especially if you have plans this weekend.”
Currently ground conditions are either waterlogged or saturated and further rainfall over the weekend and next week will add to water levels, with the possibility of some localised flooding. You can find out more about current ground conditions here https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs.
Mark continued: “With further low-pressure systems moving our way early next week there is the potential for further spells of wet and windy weather. We’re keeping a close eye on Tuesday in particular as there are signs of heavy rain in the forecast. With ground levels already waterlogged this could lead to some localised impacts from flooding, so stay keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings from Met Éireann for your area.”
Forecast pressure chart for Sunday 20th February at 1800 showing a band of rain and tight isobars across Ireland.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
A wet and windy end to 2021 and windy on New Years Day
The weather will continue to be quite active to the end of the year, with strong winds at times, including a windy New Year’s countdown for some.
Persistent rainfall affecting many places today, Thursday, will continue into tonight. There will be some heavy falls which bring a risk of localised flooding. A Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in effect until 5am Friday morning for Cork and Kerry, and another Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in place for Galway and Mayo between 5pm this evening (Thursday) to 1am tonight.
It will also become windy this evening in the south, where southwest winds will increase fresh to strong, and these stronger winds will extend to all areas overnight. Winds will reach near gale force in Atlantic coastal areas, with gale warnings coming into effect for some sea areas overnight.
The strong winds will persist into the morning of New Year’s Eve, Friday, with strong and gusty southwest winds in many areas throughout the morning, reaching near gale force at times. After a mostly cloudy morning with some light rain lingering in parts, the afternoon will be largely dry with bright spells. It will be very mild, with afternoon temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.
Winds will die down to just a manly moderate breeze for the afternoon on Friday, however this calmer period will be quite short lived as winds will be strengthening again later in the evening for the night of New Year’s Eve. Southerly winds will increase fresh to strong early in the night, with strongest winds on Atlantic coasts. It will be wet in places too with outbreaks of rain moving eastwards overnight. Remaining mild overnight with lowest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees.
The weather for the first day of 2022, Saturday, will be quite blustery with showers, some of these heavy. There will be bright and sunny periods too however. It will be breezy with fresh southwest winds, windiest near western coasts with winds remaining strong there. It will continue milder than average, with highest temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees.
Image from Thursday’s 12Z run of Harmonie showing rain (top left) cloud cover (top right), wind field (bottom left) and temperatures (bottom right) for the country at midnight on New Year’s Eve:
Updated by Meteorologist Emer Flood at 3pm on 30th December 2021.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Settled and mainly dry in the run up to Christmas Day
High pressure will continue to keep our weather settled and largely dry through this weekend and into the early days of Christmas Week, though there are some signs of more unsettled weather from mid-week onwards and possibly turning colder over the Christmas weekend.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Deirdre Lowe, said: “Most of us will enjoy a spell of dry and quiet weather in the lead up to Christmas, it’ll be fairly cloudy though and some spots will see a little patchy mist or drizzle in thicker cloud. It’ll turn a bit colder over the weekend too, with daytime temperatures around 6 to 9 Celsius.”
“It’ll stay fairly cloudy during the nights which should keep frosts at bay, though the odd patch of frost can’t be ruled out where clearer skies develop.”
This settled weather will continue into the early days of next week, though it looks likely that high pressure will gradually break down from around mid-week onwards, turning our weather more unsettled as we get closer to Christmas Day. Whilst there is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast, there are some signs of colder air being dragged across the country over Christmas weekend.
Meteorologist Deirdre Lowe continued: “It’s still too early to say with certainty what weather we can expect on Christmas Day. At the moment it looks like the current blocking high pressure will be replaced by low pressure, increasing the chance of unsettled weather. There’re also some early signs of a possible cold spell over the Christmas period but it’s still very uncertain, so keep an eye on the latest Met Éireann forecast.”
The Met Éireann Podcast ‘White Christmas’ Episode
Listen back to our December 2019 White Christmas episode of The Met Éireann Podcast where Liz and Noel dig into all things snow! We hear about how often we get a white Christmas, how frequent snowfall is in general, and review some of the notable big snow events we’ve experienced in Ireland and around the world.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Winds slowly ease as Storm Barra moves away from Ireland
For the latest on Storm Barra please see our News Story.
For details on the latest forecast and warnings visit our website.
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Storm depression approaching Ireland Tuesday 7th December 2021
– Updated by Meteorologist Liz Walsh at 6 pm on Sunday 5th December 2021
Storm Barra was named by Met Éireann on Sunday morning (5th December 2021) and is expected to affect Ireland during Tuesday and for a time on Wednesday. Multiple hazards will be associated with this system.
Impacts will vary depending on location but will include
An orange level wind warning has been issued for Counties Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Clare and Galway valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday, while a yellow level wind warning is in places for all other counties for the same time period. These warnings are likely to be updated and fine-tuned as we come closer to the event as the track of the storm becomes more certain.
Winds will be south to southeast in direction during the early part of the Tuesday and will gradually veer westerly as the day goes on. So the strength of the wind will be dependent on your location and exposure to that particular direction. Some heavy falls of rain are likely too during Tuesday morning, these mainly across southern and southeastern counties with spot flooding possible.
This innocuous –looking area of cloud to the south of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Eastern Canada from earlier today is the nascent site of a low pressure system that will become Storm Barra.
Image courtesy of the NOAA Geos-East Satellite.
The low pressure system will picked up by the Jet Stream and driven across the North Atlantic during Monday arriving along Ireland’s west coast on Tuesday morning. Image courtesy of ECMWF 12Z Run 5/12/2021
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Updated by Meteorologist Gerry Murphy at 4 pm on Saturday 4th December 2021
For latest advisories and warnings: https://www.met.ie/warnings/today
Summary
A deep Atlantic depression will bring very wet and windy weather across Ireland through Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be strong in all areas at times and will reach gale force in coastal areas. Severe and damaging gusts are likely. At the moment the strongest winds are expected to be in western coastal counties of Munster with storm force winds possible at times later on Tuesday.
The strengthening winds will be accompanied by a spell of heavy rain on Tuesday, followed by heavy showers through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of the showers may be of sleet or snow on high ground.
Due to spring tides, very high waves and large surge levels, coastal flooding may occur along Munster and south Connacht coasts.
Possible Impacts
Very strong winds and damaging gusts are likely to bring disruption due to power outages, fallen trees or branches or other debris.
As well as coastal flooding, heavy rain or showers will bring localised flooding. Travel disruption is likely at times due to strong winds, poor visibility, localised flooding and poor surface conditions due to hail, sleet or possible snow on high ground.
Detailed forecast
A storm depression will develop in the mid-Atlantic on Monday as a result of dynamic forcing from the Jetstream in the upper atmosphere. The low pressure system will rapidly deepen as it tracks northeastwards over the Atlantic and approaches Ireland on a strong westerly Jetstream.
As the depression approaches Ireland, it will slow down and become relatively slow moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. The exact track and timing of the depression is not definite. At the moment it is expected to reach a minimum pressure of 952 hPa on Tuesday afternoon at round 100 nautical miles or 185 Km to the west of Ireland. The depression will slowly fill and its central pressure gradually increase as it moves slowly eastwards over Ireland through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually clearing southeastwards through Wednesday night.
The development and track of the depression through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday is shown in the charts below.
Wind Forecast
As the depression approaches Ireland, southerly winds will strengthen through Monday night and early Tuesday with gales or strong gales developing along all Irish coasts and the Irish Sea. Cyclonic variable winds will develop as the depression moves over Ireland. Later Tuesday and through Tuesday night, very strong westerly winds will develop in western coastal counties. Currently it looks like the strongest winds will occur in western coastal counties of Munster and Co. Galway.
This is indicated on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for wind gusts and also on the deterministic forecasts below.
Rainfall Forecast
The timing of rainfall over Ireland associated with the Atlantic depression is uncertain. Current model forecast runs indicate that heavy rain will develop in the west of Ireland later on Monday night and move eastwards across the country on Tuesday morning. Showers will follow from the west on Tuesday afternoon and will continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some will be wintry, falling as hail or sleet with snow possible on high ground. There will also be a possibility of isolated thunderstorms.
Coastal Conditions
We are in a period of Spring Tides, and coastal levels are expected to be ELEVATED on Tuesday as a deep low pressure system approaches from the Atlantic resulting in the coincidence of strong winds, high wave and large surge levels. The largest surge levels are expected on Atlantic coasts. There is still uncertainty between model runs on the timing and path of the low pressure system, which will influence the surge level expected locally along the coast, and the uncertainty should reduce as future model runs become available.
Forecasts