by Paul Downes, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann. Issued 9th August 2022
(Updated by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022)
HARMONIE maximum and minimum air temperature forecast – Thursday 11th to Sunday 14th august
High pressure will generally dominate our weather over the coming days, so as it’s warming up once again, what are we to expect with this spike in temperatures?
First off, will this be a heat wave?
Well for the first time this summer we can say with a high degree of confidence that heatwave criteria will be met in some parts of the country.
So what exactly defines a heat wave?
The definition of a heat wave in Ireland is shaded air temperatures reaching highs of above 25˚ C on five or more consecutive days at the same location.
So where in Ireland is likely to see widespread temperatures with maxima in excess of 25˚ Cover the coming 5 day period?
From at least Wednesday the 10th through Sunday the 14th, maximum temperatures above 25˚ C look very likely for much of Munster and Leinster, and in large parts of these provinces, temperatures are likely to reach the upper 20’s for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday.
There is an exception to be made here; even though winds over land will be quite low, sea breezes will set up especially along east and south-east coasts and this will limit the maximum temperatures to the lower 20’s close to the shoreline.
Over Connacht and Ulster maximum temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 20’s on Wednesday and Thursday, however maximum temperatures will rise to the mid 20’s or a little higher from Friday onwards, so while temperatures may rise above 25˚ C in some parts over the coming 5 days it is unlikely that at any one station this will happen on all 5 days and thus will fall short of the heatwave criteria.
Sea fog may linger locally on all coasts at times also and that will limit maximum temperatures in these locations.
Uncertainty increases as we progress through Sunday and into the early days of next week with a slight chance of thunderstorms later on Sunday and into Monday, likely heralding a return to cooler near average temperatures.
Where will be warmest and are there any high temperature warnings?
Much of Munster and Leinster will see temperatures rise into the upper 20’s later in the week, although coastal fringes will remain slightly less warm. A status yellow high temperature warning has been issued with highs likely to exceed 27 degrees over a large area for more than 2 successive days, beginning on Thursday, while night time lows will remain above 15°C for much of the night time hours over the same region. As the week progresses and the forecast becomes more certain, some counties further to the north and west like Galway and Roscommon may be added also.
Will the record for highest temperature in August be broken?
The highest August temperature was set 27 years ago on Sunday 2nd August 1995 at Oak Park, Co. Carlow (11.3°C above its 1981-2010 long-term-average), with 31.5°C.
Oak Park will likely be one station to watch again later this week, especially on Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of exceeding the August record temperature is quite low. However, temperatures exceeding 30°C locally cannot be ruled out.
Phoenix Park, Co Dublin observed at 14:40 Irish time (13:40 UTC) on Monday 18 July 2022 a shade maximum air temperature of 33.0 °C which is 12.8 °C above its 1981-1981 long-term average (LTA) of 20.2 °C.
Update by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022
How is the heatwave evolving?
All areas in Ireland are now expected to become very warm or hot from tomorrow onwards, and so the Status Yellow temperature warning has been extended to all counties from 12:00 Friday until 06:00 Sunday.
Wednesday temperatures:
As Paul predicted, Oak Park in Carlow was the station to watch as it recorded the highest temperature yesterday of 29.2 degrees Celsius.
50% of stations in Met Eireann’s TUSCON station network reached 25 degrees, signalling the likely start of a heatwave, with mainly coastal stations remaining below the threshold.
Thursday temperatures:
Oak Park in Carlow is again today’s hottest station, recording 30.0°C at 1500, just below the record for August, which remains at 31.5°C for the time being.
So far today 57% of TUSCON stations have reached at least 25°C, signalling more widespread hot temperatures today.
Has the weekend forecast changed?
Very little has changed for the weekend forecast and we remain on track for this spell of hot weather to reach heatwave criteria, as daily temperature maxima will very likely remain above 25°C.
Saturday:
Sunday:
The Breakdown:
The high pressure system largely responsible for the spell of hot weather will likely break down on Sunday, with medium-range models predicting low pressure to push up from the southeast and bring possibly heavy and thundery showers on Sunday evening.
What are the major impacts and concerns for this potential heatwave?
Water safety
Unfortunately there have been a number of water related fatalities this year, and it is therefore paramount that water safety is at the forefront of our minds when it comes to enjoying the warm conditions, or seeking relief when it gets too hot.
Please follow water safety guidelines and be vigilant of those around you. Check the latest sea area and inland lakes forecasts here.
Average UV and temperatures rise and fall during the day during Summer
Hydration is once again very important through this period as it will also remain very warm and muggy at night time. This applies to farm animals and pets also.
Conservation of water and fire risk
With ground conditions becoming very dry over the course of the summer, water tables are low and water should be conserved where possible. So try and only use water where necessary and avoid wastage.
With the very dry conditions and the gradual increase in temperatures exacerbating that, fire risk will be high so always make sure to properly extinguish barbeques, and avoid lighting open fires in wooded or grassland areas.
Please remember that warm or hot spells like this actually contribute the greatest weather related risk to life, so while it can be a welcome event for some, please be cautious to the many risks to your health and safety.
For full information on government guidance to staying safe in summer, please consult the Be Summer-Ready booklet.
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in the early 1800s, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
8°C above its long-term average (LTA)
2nd highest temperature on record for Ireland, being 0.3°C below the all-time record of 33.3°C observed at Kilkenny Castle on Sun 26 June 1887
highest in the 21st century – beating Elphin, Co. Roscommon’s record of 32.3°C on Wednesday 19 July 2006
higher than any temperature of the 20th century, which was 32.5 °C at Boora, Co. Offaly on Tuesday 29 Jun 1976
highest temperature ever recorded in Dublin
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Sweltering heat forecast from 17th to 19th July – what to expect
by Meteorologist Paul Downes
While Europe has been basking in what seems like an eternal heat wave all summer long, Ireland has seen mostly a very average summer. Over the next few days however a combination of factors will help to steer those higher temperatures our way, if only for a relatively brief spell of very warm temperatures.
So what is causing it?
ECMWF-Temperature and geopotential height forecast.
Initially a portion of the Azores High will extend from the southwest over Ireland for the weekend. It will bring a rise in temperatures but still hold the warmer air to the south. As the high pressure moves away to the east, the anticyclonic, or clockwise rotation will steer up air from the southeast, but the real contributing factor is how it interacts with a low pressure system developing off the coast of Portugal and gradually meandering northwards. The cyclonic or anticlockwise flow of the low working in conjuction with the anticyclonic flow from the high will generate a strong surge of warm air between both systems thus pushing the warm air towards Ireland, transporting the airmass that has brought exceptional temperatures to Europe, towards Ireland.
What temperatures should we expect?
While the high builds in on Friday and Saturday the high temperatures will range generally in the low to mid 20’s. There will also be some upper cloud at times making sunshine a little hazy and there is a chance of a few showers too.
As the high begins to drift a little to the east on Sunday, temperatures will rise to mid to upper 20’s with temperatures possibly surpassing 30 locally on Monday. There is a little more uncertainty regarding Tuesday but it does look like it will be another hot day and perhaps as hot if not hotter than Monday. While this warmer air moves in our direction there will be the chance of a few thundery bursts especially on Tuesday.
Maximum temperatures Saturday to Sunday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Sunday to Monday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Monday to Tuesday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Tuesday to Wednesday – ECMWF
With temperatures soaring, it is important to remain hydrated and be Sun Smart, that goes for animals as well as ourselves. Be prepared and remember to Be Summer Ready
The night time temperature will also be very warm and humid with temperatures on Sunday and Monday night not likely to fall below the mid to high teens and in some areas they may not fall below 20°C, which is known as a Tropical night.
Status Yellow High Temperature Warning Issued
We have issued a Status Yellow High Temperature warning for Ireland.
On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday exceptionally warm weather will occur over Ireland with daytime temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees generally and possibly up to 32 degrees in places on Monday. Night time temperatures will range from 15 to 20 degrees.
Impacts:
• Heat stress, especially for the more vulnerable of the population
• High Solar UV index
• Risk of water related incidents
Currently it looks as if the breakdown will happen on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the Low pressure system moves up over Ireland steering in cooler air from the west for the rest of the week. This will also bring some wet conditions on Wednesday.
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in 1891, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
12.8°C above its long-term average (LTA)
2nd highest temperature on record for Ireland, being 0.3°C below the all-time record of 33.3°C observed at Kilkenny Castle on Sun 26 June 1887
highest in the 21st century – beating Elphin, Co. Roscommon’s record of 32.3°C on Wednesday 19 July 2006
higher than any temperature of the 20th century, which was 32.5 °C at Boora, Co. Offaly on Tuesday 29 Jun 1976
highest temperature ever recorded in Dublin
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
What brought the heat to the south-western part of the continent?
High pressure ridge already formed in the South West Europe by 12 June 2022, with an Atlantic low-pressure system between the Azores islands and Madeira, which caused the uprising of warm air in western Europe (source: WMO). This ridge did not move and the temperatures rose gradually day to day. Maximum temperatures were often above 30°C and 8 to 10°C higher than the climatological average.
WMO Tweet
Provisional temperature records
Saint-Jean-De-Minervois reached 40°C on 16 June, earliest every 40°C in France. Cottbus, Germany temperature 140 year-old record was broken with 39.2°C on 19 June 2022 (since 1888, previous record was 38.9°C set on 29 July 1921). Up to 43°C was observed in Andalusia, Spain. A June temperature record was broken for the western part of Austria with 36.5°C. High temperature records were also set in Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland.
The heatwave is expected to come to the rest of central and south Europe in the next few days. While a Saharan dust storm will deteriorate air quality in southern France, Italy, Balearic Islands, Spain & the Balkan Peninsula. (source: CopernicusEU) .
“Climate projection models suggest that heatwaves as likely to become more frequent, longer and more intense, start earlier and finish later than in the past.” Keith Lambkin, Senior Climatologist.
Why did Ireland not achieve these high temperatures?
On Saturday, a front lay over the southeast of the country which slowly cleared south-eastwards. A moderate northwest breeze which felt cool and kept the temperatures low. On Sunday, there was a depression of 999 hPa centred to the northwest of Scotland which was tracking eastward. So the air across Ireland is flowing eastward, keeping the continental heat away from our shores.
What is a climatological heatwave in Ireland?
In terms of climate monitoring, a heatwave occurs at a station when there five (5) consecutive days or more observe a daily maximum temperature over 25 degrees Celsius (> 25 °C).
In general in Ireland, heatwaves occur in June, July and August. There has been only one instance of a heatwave beginning in May (Glenties Hatchery, Co Donegal in 2012) and four starting in September, all within the first 2 weeks – one occurring in 1959 and the others occurred in 1991. The peak month for heatwaves in Ireland is July. The average heatwaves is 6 days long. It would be rare to have a heatwave longer than 9 days. The longest heatwave observed is 14 days in Laois and Offaly in August 1976.
Temperatures in June 2022 so far
The highest daily maximum shaded air temperature of 2022 so far is 23.9°C which occurred on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Phoenix Park, Co Dublin.
Currently June 2022 is two thirds completed and is 41st warmest June on record (Island of Ireland long-term series, 123 years) with an average temperature to yesterday of 13.7°C. This value is a half degree above June’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and is currently on average to the 1991-2020 June average. Typically in Ireland, we would expect warmer temperatures towards the end of the month, as the summer progresses. So we are expecting June 2022 to be warmer than 41st warmest. We will have to wait another 10 days to find out however.
The warmest June occurred 82 years ago in 1940 with 15.4°C.
The coldest June occurred 50 years ago in 1972 with 11.1°C.
Of the ten warmest Junes on record, half have occurred from 2005 onwards. Of the 41 warmest Junes, just over a third have occurred from 2003 onwards.
No Junes in the 21st century (2001-2022) appear in the coldest ten Junes. Of the 41 coldest Junes, only 5% have occurred from 2011 onwards.
June Island of Ireland long-term temperature anomalies (June 2022 up to 20 June only)
What’s in store for the coming days of June 2022
Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings:
May 2022 was provisionally Ireland’s 3rd warmest on record. The average temperature being 12.6°C, which is 1.9°C above May’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Across Europe, temperatures in May 2022 varied considerably compared against the average May values for 1991-2020. The Sahara influence again meant hotter than average in the far west of Europe. While many countries, France, Spain and Portugal broke records.
Globally, May was the fifth warmest on record, joint with May 2018 and 2021.
Following the current spell of warm and dry weather it’s going to turn much colder by mid-week as a cooler airmass arrives across Ireland from Scandinavia.
The highest temperature of 2022 so far was recorded on Sunday, with 18.9 degrees reached at Newport Furnace, Co. Mayo. While the pleasant weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday, there is the chance of a few showers at times mainly over the eastern half of the country, generated by more unstable air. However the most significant change will come on Wednesday as a northerly airflow establishes across the country feeding in noticeably colder air from Scandinavia.
Met Eireann meteorologist, Brandon Creagh, said: “It’s going to get noticeably colder from Wednesday as an anticyclone over Iceland will bring cold northerly winds over Ireland on Wednesday and into Thursday. Showers will develop over the eastern half of the country with a slight risk of wintry precipitation over high ground.”
Airmass chart for Thursday 31st March showing a cold (blue) northerly airmass over Ireland, originating from Scandinavia.
The colder spell may come as a bit of a surprise to some as temperatures over the last week have been well into the mid to high teens – above average for the time of year, however from Wednesday we’ll see daytime temperatures drop back down into single figures.
Meteorologist Brandon Creagh added: “It’ll be important to bring plants indoors that are sensitive to cold. Also, farmers and gardeners should be aware that growing conditions will not be as good as they have been recently.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
High pressure over Europe will become centred over Ireland in the coming days, bringing a good deal of dry and mild weather along with plenty of sunshine.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “The dry and bright weather that we’ve had over the past few days won’t be going anywhere this week. High pressure is going to stay very firmly in charge so we can generally expect plenty of sunshine and little or no rain.”
“Some very weak fronts will drift into western and northern areas later this week so it’ll be a bit cloudier there at times with a few spots of drizzle but any accumulations will be small. So, even though it won’t be wall-to-wall sunshine, it will be very pleasant still.”
Daytime temperatures will be on the mild side for March and at night temperatures will drop into the low single figures, so a few patches of grass frost are still possible, especially when the skies are clear.
Aoife continued: “It’s the daytime temperatures that are notable though. The average maximum temperatures for this time of year are around 11 or 12 degrees, but the combination of a relatively mild airmass and good spells of sunshine mean that top temperatures this week will widely get into the mid-teens, even hitting the high teens at times.”
This current spell of settled weather looks to last into at least this weekend. Aoife explained: “Although there’s a bit of uncertainty later this weekend, there’s no real sign of this high pressure breaking down until early next week at least. So, this really lovely spell of spring weather won’t be going anywhere too quickly.”
UV and Pollen forecasts for 2022 begin this week
With spring in full force and plenty of sunshine across the country this week, pollen and UV levels will start to increase. You can now find the latest UV and pollen forecasts for 3 days ahead on the Met Éireann website and app.
For more information on staying safe in the sun please visit our UV Index page.
After a changeable week, our weather will remain mixed as we head into the weekend with the potential for heavy rain in some places but also some drier and brighter weather too.
Met Éireann Meteorologist Emer Flood said: “An active jet stream will continue to steer Atlantic low-pressure systems in our direction over the coming days, these will bring spells of heavy rain and strong winds at times.
“Heavy rain will move into the southwest on Thursday night, becoming widespread Friday morning which may lead to localised surface flooding. There is also potential for further heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend with the possibility of warnings being issued. We’re advising everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast for the coming days.”
A yellow rain warning is in place for many southern and western counties from 15:00 on Saturday afternoon until around midnight, where heavy rain along with strong winds will bring a risk of flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
On Friday, rain will be quite widespread and heavy in places, slowly clearing northeastwards in the afternoon. This will be followed by heavy showers with the potential for thunderstorms and hail, which could lead to some localised flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
Some heavy or prolonged showers will continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Otherwise, Saturday will start off dry and bright in many areas. However later in the day a low-pressure system will approach from the southwest, with cloud building and winds strengthening as rain arrives across the southern half of the country by evening. Rain may turn to sleet or snow in parts, especially over high ground. Sunday will be wet and windy for many as this same low-pressure system slowly pushes north over Ireland with further falls of sleet or snow possible locally.
Looking ahead to next week there are signs of a quieter and more settled spell on Monday and Tuesday, though this may be short-lived as things once again turn more unsettled around midweek.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
A brief cold snap on the way on Wednesday evening and Thursday, with wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow along with strong and gusty winds leading to some impacts in areas.
A cold front moving across Ireland this afternoon (Wednesday 23rd) will introduce a much colder and unstable polar maritime airmass tonight and tomorrow. Met Éireann has issued several yellow weather warnings including yellow level snow/ice and wind warnings. These warnings are in place for many northern and western counties for tonight and Thursday.
Staying unsettled & turning cold over the next few days with wintry showers on Wednesday night & Thursday.
Some snow is likely in places & showers will be heavy with possible hail & thunder too.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood said, “Temperatures will drop quite quickly this evening with the chance of frost and ice forming, especially for inland and rural areas.
“It’ll be windy tonight too especially in northern and western areas, this helping to drive wintry showers of snow, sleet and hail inland. Some areas especially in the northwest will see some snow accumulations of a few centimetres to lower levels, accumulations elsewhere will be mainly confined to high ground.
“It’ll remain very cold and windy across the country on Thursday with continued snow showers, this leading to treacherous driving conditions from icy stretches and reduced visibility on the roads in places. This polar maritime airmass is quite unstable so we could see some hail and lightning at times throughout Thursday too.”
Temperatures on Thursday will be limited to around 3 to 7 degrees, with the brisk northwesterly winds making it feel much colder.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, Emer continued: “Following this cold spell, temperatures will recover on Friday and into the weekend with highs of around 8 to 10 degrees. Although there is some rain in the forecast over the weekend, much of this will fall overnight so there’ll be decent spell of dry and bright weather around over the weekend too.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
After what’s been a fairly settled February so far, our weather will turn increasingly unsettled over the weekend with some wet weather on the way on Sunday and early next week.
Met Éireann have issued yellow wind warnings for Donegal, Galway and Mayo and rain warnings for Cork, Kerry and Galway on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, due to spells of heavy rain and strong winds to mainly southern and western areas. It’ll stay breezy across the country on Saturday with some blustery, heavy showers, followed by a rather wet day across the country on Sunday.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Mark Bowe, said:
“Our weather has been pretty settled so far this year thanks to high pressure never being too far away. But as we head into the weekend and next week we’re going to see a change to more unsettled weather as the jet stream positions itself across Ireland – this will open the door to low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic.”
“We’re keeping a close eye on the weather forecast for Sunday, as a low pressure will swing up from the south bringing outbreaks of rain through the day. There is likely to be some heavy bursts of rain in places which could lead to some localised flooding, but there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty so it’s best to keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings, especially if you have plans this weekend.”
Currently ground conditions are either waterlogged or saturated and further rainfall over the weekend and next week will add to water levels, with the possibility of some localised flooding. You can find out more about current ground conditions here https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs.
Mark continued: “With further low-pressure systems moving our way early next week there is the potential for further spells of wet and windy weather. We’re keeping a close eye on Tuesday in particular as there are signs of heavy rain in the forecast. With ground levels already waterlogged this could lead to some localised impacts from flooding, so stay keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings from Met Éireann for your area.”
Forecast pressure chart for Sunday 20th February at 1800 showing a band of rain and tight isobars across Ireland.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
The weather will continue to be quite active to the end of the year, with strong winds at times, including a windy New Year’s countdown for some.
Persistent rainfall affecting many places today, Thursday, will continue into tonight. There will be some heavy falls which bring a risk of localised flooding. A Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in effect until 5am Friday morning for Cork and Kerry, and another Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in place for Galway and Mayo between 5pm this evening (Thursday) to 1am tonight.
It will also become windy this evening in the south, where southwest winds will increase fresh to strong, and these stronger winds will extend to all areas overnight. Winds will reach near gale force in Atlantic coastal areas, with gale warnings coming into effect for some sea areas overnight.
The strong winds will persist into the morning of New Year’s Eve, Friday, with strong and gusty southwest winds in many areas throughout the morning, reaching near gale force at times. After a mostly cloudy morning with some light rain lingering in parts, the afternoon will be largely dry with bright spells. It will be very mild, with afternoon temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.
Winds will die down to just a manly moderate breeze for the afternoon on Friday, however this calmer period will be quite short lived as winds will be strengthening again later in the evening for the night of New Year’s Eve. Southerly winds will increase fresh to strong early in the night, with strongest winds on Atlantic coasts. It will be wet in places too with outbreaks of rain moving eastwards overnight. Remaining mild overnight with lowest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees.
The weather for the first day of 2022, Saturday, will be quite blustery with showers, some of these heavy. There will be bright and sunny periods too however. It will be breezy with fresh southwest winds, windiest near western coasts with winds remaining strong there. It will continue milder than average, with highest temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees.
Image from Thursday’s 12Z run of Harmonie showing rain (top left) cloud cover (top right), wind field (bottom left) and temperatures (bottom right) for the country at midnight on New Year’s Eve:
Updated by Meteorologist Emer Flood at 3pm on 30th December 2021.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
High pressure will continue to keep our weather settled and largely dry through this weekend and into the early days of Christmas Week, though there are some signs of more unsettled weather from mid-week onwards and possibly turning colder over the Christmas weekend.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Deirdre Lowe, said: “Most of us will enjoy a spell of dry and quiet weather in the lead up to Christmas, it’ll be fairly cloudy though and some spots will see a little patchy mist or drizzle in thicker cloud. It’ll turn a bit colder over the weekend too, with daytime temperatures around 6 to 9 Celsius.”
“It’ll stay fairly cloudy during the nights which should keep frosts at bay, though the odd patch of frost can’t be ruled out where clearer skies develop.”
This settled weather will continue into the early days of next week, though it looks likely that high pressure will gradually break down from around mid-week onwards, turning our weather more unsettled as we get closer to Christmas Day. Whilst there is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast, there are some signs of colder air being dragged across the country over Christmas weekend.
Meteorologist Deirdre Lowe continued: “It’s still too early to say with certainty what weather we can expect on Christmas Day. At the moment it looks like the current blocking high pressure will be replaced by low pressure, increasing the chance of unsettled weather. There’re also some early signs of a possible cold spell over the Christmas period but it’s still very uncertain, so keep an eye on the latest Met Éireann forecast.”
The Met Éireann Podcast ‘White Christmas’ Episode
Listen back to our December 2019 White Christmas episode of The Met Éireann Podcast where Liz and Noel dig into all things snow! We hear about how often we get a white Christmas, how frequent snowfall is in general, and review some of the notable big snow events we’ve experienced in Ireland and around the world.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
– Updated by Meteorologist Liz Walsh at 6 pm on Sunday 5th December 2021
Storm Barra was named by Met Éireann on Sunday morning (5th December 2021) and is expected to affect Ireland during Tuesday and for a time on Wednesday. Multiple hazards will be associated with this system.
Impacts will vary depending on location but will include
Storm force winds in places
High seas and some coastal flooding
Heavy squally falls of rain
Some transient falls of sleet/snow possible, mainly in the northwest.
Some trees down
Structural damage (Secure outdoor furniture and Christmas decorations!)
Disruption to travel/hazardous driving conditions
An orange level wind warning has been issued for Counties Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Clare and Galway valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday, while a yellow level wind warning is in places for all other counties for the same time period. These warnings are likely to be updated and fine-tuned as we come closer to the event as the track of the storm becomes more certain.
Winds will be south to southeast in direction during the early part of the Tuesday and will gradually veer westerly as the day goes on. So the strength of the wind will be dependent on your location and exposure to that particular direction. Some heavy falls of rain are likely too during Tuesday morning, these mainly across southern and southeastern counties with spot flooding possible.
This innocuous –looking area of cloud to the south of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Eastern Canada from earlier today is the nascent site of a low pressure system that will become Storm Barra.
Image courtesy of the NOAA Geos-East Satellite.
The low pressure system will picked up by the Jet Stream and driven across the North Atlantic during Monday arriving along Ireland’s west coast on Tuesday morning. Image courtesy of ECMWF 12Z Run 5/12/2021
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Updated by Meteorologist Gerry Murphy at 4 pm on Saturday 4th December 2021
A deep Atlantic depression will bring very wet and windy weather across Ireland through Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be strong in all areas at times and will reach gale force in coastal areas. Severe and damaging gusts are likely. At the moment the strongest winds are expected to be in western coastal counties of Munster with storm force winds possible at times later on Tuesday.
The strengthening winds will be accompanied by a spell of heavy rain on Tuesday, followed by heavy showers through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of the showers may be of sleet or snow on high ground.
Due to spring tides, very high waves and large surge levels, coastal flooding may occur along Munster and south Connacht coasts.
Possible Impacts
Very strong winds and damaging gusts are likely to bring disruption due to power outages, fallen trees or branches or other debris.
As well as coastal flooding, heavy rain or showers will bring localised flooding. Travel disruption is likely at times due to strong winds, poor visibility, localised flooding and poor surface conditions due to hail, sleet or possible snow on high ground.
Detailed forecast
A storm depression will develop in the mid-Atlantic on Monday as a result of dynamic forcing from the Jetstream in the upper atmosphere. The low pressure system will rapidly deepen as it tracks northeastwards over the Atlantic and approaches Ireland on a strong westerly Jetstream.
As the depression approaches Ireland, it will slow down and become relatively slow moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. The exact track and timing of the depression is not definite. At the moment it is expected to reach a minimum pressure of 952 hPa on Tuesday afternoon at round 100 nautical miles or 185 Km to the west of Ireland. The depression will slowly fill and its central pressure gradually increase as it moves slowly eastwards over Ireland through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually clearing southeastwards through Wednesday night.
The development and track of the depression through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday is shown in the charts below.
Wind Forecast
As the depression approaches Ireland, southerly winds will strengthen through Monday night and early Tuesday with gales or strong gales developing along all Irish coasts and the Irish Sea. Cyclonic variable winds will develop as the depression moves over Ireland. Later Tuesday and through Tuesday night, very strong westerly winds will develop in western coastal counties. Currently it looks like the strongest winds will occur in western coastal counties of Munster and Co. Galway.
This is indicated on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for wind gusts and also on the deterministic forecasts below.
Rainfall Forecast
The timing of rainfall over Ireland associated with the Atlantic depression is uncertain. Current model forecast runs indicate that heavy rain will develop in the west of Ireland later on Monday night and move eastwards across the country on Tuesday morning. Showers will follow from the west on Tuesday afternoon and will continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some will be wintry, falling as hail or sleet with snow possible on high ground. There will also be a possibility of isolated thunderstorms.
Coastal Conditions
We are in a period of Spring Tides, and coastal levels are expected to be ELEVATED on Tuesday as a deep low pressure system approaches from the Atlantic resulting in the coincidence of strong winds, high wave and large surge levels. The largest surge levels are expected on Atlantic coasts. There is still uncertainty between model runs on the timing and path of the low pressure system, which will influence the surge level expected locally along the coast, and the uncertainty should reduce as future model runs become available.
Named by the UK Met Office, Storm Arwen will track southwards along the east coast of Scotland on England through Friday and Friday night. For Ireland, Storm Arwen will introduce strong northerly winds and a cool polar maritime air, with the strongest winds expected along northern and north-western coasts on Friday, and later in the Irish Sea.
Met Éireann have issued yellow wind warnings for counties Donegal, Sligo and Mayo for Friday afternoon into Friday night, with strong gale force 9 winds expected along northern and eastern coasts, and storm force 10 winds in the Irish Sea on Friday night. The Met Office has issued a yellow wind warning for Northern Ireland through Friday and Saturday.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Elizabeth Coleman, said “It’s going to be a cold and very windy day on Friday. We’ll see north to northwest winds peaking late Friday afternoon . Gale to strong gale force winds are forecast along north facing coasts, generating large coastal waves and spray overtopping, with northerly storm force 10 winds developing in the Irish Sea on Friday night. Strong northerly winds over land in the north and northwest could bring down some trees and power lines with travel distribution possible.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Saturday 27th November showing cold northerly winds (blue) across Ireland
Elizabeth continued: “This system will generate high seas too, in the north and west through Friday, with the storm force winds and high seas transferring to the Irish Sea on Friday night”.
Storm Arwen – Named by the @metoffice, #StormArwen will bring a spell of cold & very windy weather to the UK on Friday & Saturday.
It’ll be cold & windy for Ireland too, especially across northern areas where we have yellow wind warnings in place
Met Éireann have forecast blustery scattered showers on Friday, which will turn to sleet, mainly parts of the north with snow possible over the hills. Daytime temperatures will be limited to around 6 to 9C, but feeling colder with an added wind chill factor from the brisk northerly winds. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall close to freezing with frost expected in some areas.
It will continue cold through Saturday with winds easing later in the day with long spells of sunshine and while most areas will stay dry, there will be a few wintry showers in the north and towards the west coast.
Although it may feel like winter has arrived, milder conditions will move up over the country through Sunday and for the start of next week bring rain or showers at times but generally frost free nights.
#BeWinterReady
The unique risks brought by winter can occur suddenly and unexpectedly. Make sure you and your family are prepared for whatever the weather may bring during the winter months ahead. Visit winterready.ie or see #BeWinterReady and make sure to visit met.ie for the latest weather forecast and warnings. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
On Friday a complex area of low pressure will move down over the northern tip of Scotland which will open the door to strong winds and cool polar air set to sink down over Ireland, with the strongest winds especially affecting areas in the far north.
Met Eireann meteorologist, Mark Bowe, said “It’s going to get noticeably colder from Friday as the low pressure system over Scotland will allow very cold northerly winds to blanket Ireland on Friday and into Saturday. There is a risk of wintry showers for areas in the far north with sleet and snow possible over the hills. This will mainly affect the northern half of the country with showers and some sunny spells expected elsewhere”
Met Eireann have forecast a windy day on Friday with frequent showers. Daytime temperatures will be limited to around 6 to 9C, but the brisk northerly winds will make it feel colder. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall close to freezing for many areas with frost expected.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Saturday 27th November showing cold northerly winds (blue) across Ireland
Mark continued: “It will be windy too with strong winds and gales on exposed coasts and hills likely on Friday before easing then again on Saturday”
The Met Office has issued a yellow wind warning for Northern Ireland through Friday and Saturday, as this low pressure system is expected to bring the strongest winds to the northern part of the island. Met Éireann forecasters are keeping a close eye on the development of this system for later in the week.
#BeWinterReady
The unique risks brought by winter can occur suddenly and unexpectedly. Make sure you and your family are prepared for whatever the weather may bring during the winter months ahead. Visit winterready.ie or see #BeWinterReady and make sure to visit met.ie for the latest weather forecast and warnings. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
After a rather mild November so far, temperatures will turn noticeably colder over the weekend with the return of overnight frosts.
On Saturday a cold front will push across Ireland introducing a much colder polar maritime airmass. This will bring daytime temperatures generally in single figures on Sunday and through next week, along with some cold nights and an increased chance of frosts.
Airmass and pressure chart for Sunday 21st November 2021 shows cooler airmass across Ireland (light blue) along with high pressure building from the Atlantic.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Liz Walsh, said:
“Tomorrow (Saturday 20th November) will start mainly dry in the south and east with some bright or sunny breaks, but it’ll be a damp start in the north and west with cloud and rain associated with a cold front. It’ll be a reversal of fortunes for the afternoon as the cold front clears the north and west, turning brighter and colder with just a few showers, but as this cold front makes its way across the country it’ll bring cloudier and wetter weather to southern and eastern areas.
“Sunday will be a cold and blustery day with some sunny spells and showers. Temperatures will be around 6 to 9 Celsius, though it’ll feel chillier in the brisk northerly winds. On Sunday night we’ll see the first widespread frost of this autumn so far, as temperatures fall close to or below freezing across the country.”
Commenting on the start of next week, Meteorologist Liz Walsh continued: “Through Sunday a large area of high pressure will build across Ireland and this will bring a good deal of dry, bright and crisp weather on Monday. Tuesday will still be a dry day though there will be more cloud in places, especially over the northern half of the country, and a few patches of drizzle. It’ll be another chilly night, though frosts will be largely confined to southern areas where clear spells are most likely”.
The milder than average November temperatures we’ve been experiencing of late will be displaced by noticeably colder temperatures later on Saturday.
Daytime highs will be generally in single figures Sunday & next week with an increased risk of night-time frosts. pic.twitter.com/33MiU4Po38
Commenting on the forecast into the middle of next week, Liz continued:
“It looks set to turn unsettled and colder still from around midweek. We’re keeping a close eye on some low-pressure development between Iceland and Norway which could bring windy and wet weather to Ireland later on Wednesday and perhaps the chance of some wintry showers Wednesday night and into Thursday. While it’s not unusual to get these types of weather conditions in late November, it will be a bit of shock to the system because our weather has been generally mild and benign lately.”
#BeWinterReady
The unique risks brought by winter can occur suddenly and unexpectedly. Make sure you and your family are prepared for whatever the weather may bring during the winter months ahead. Visit winterready.ie or see #BeWinterReady and make sure to visit met.ie for the latest weather forecast and warnings. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
After a mild and wet week so far, it’ll turn cooler and drier over the first half of Halloween weekend, followed by some wet and windy weather on Sunday.
Commenting on the weather over Halloween weekend, Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy said: “Today (Friday 29th) will see a mix of bright spells and scattered showers, these will be heaviest and most frequent across western areas with brighter and drier weather across the eastern half of the country. Tomorrow (Saturday 30th) will be a bright day with good sunny spells and plenty of dry weather and just a few light showers.”
“However, through Saturday night it’ll turn wet and blustery as a low pressure moves close to Ireland.” Aoife continued: “It’ll stay unsettled on Sunday with some heavy showers or longer spells of rain around – and it’ll be a windy day too which could blow away a few witch’s hats!”
As we head into the start of November it’ll feel chillier than recent weeks with much more seasonal temperatures of around 8 to 10 Celsius and the chance of frosts increasing as temperatures overnight fall close to freezing.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Sunday 31st October 2021, showing low pressure centred over Ireland along with a cooler airmass
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Low pressure will bring spells of heavy rain across parts of Ireland this week, with impacts from local flooding possible.
Met Éireann has issued a Yellow Rain warning for southern and eastern parts of the country, starting early on Wednesday and lasting until Thursday morning.
Yellow Rainfall warning for Wednesday 27th October
Meteorologist Paul Downes said: “A slow-moving band of rain will bring spells of persistent and heavy rain tonight and through tomorrow, especially across southern and eastern parts of Ireland. Around 20-40mm rain is expected, with southern and eastern areas potentially seeing higher totals – particularly the higher ground of Cork and Kerry. These high rainfall accumulations may lead to impacts in some areas, such as tricky driving conditions, delays to public transport and localised flooding.
Forecast rain from Tuesday 26th to Friday 29th October, ECMWF
Paul continued: “Further spells of wet weather are expected tomorrow night and through Thursday with another 30-50mm rain possible, once again the greatest amounts are expected across southern and eastern areas. As well as the possibility of rivers flooding locally, at this time of year the risk of surface flooding can be increased due to fallen leaves blocking drains.”
It’ll also turn a little fresher later in the week as a cooler airmass gradually pushes in across Ireland, and while the winds will generally ease later in the week, current indications suggest it may become quite unsettled again over the weekend with a spell of wet and possibly windy weather crossing the country on Sunday.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Met Éireann have issued a yellow rain warning for western parts of the country through Thursday and Friday, as prolonged and heavy rain will likely lead to localised flooding and tricky driving conditions.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Paul Downes, said: “Whilst eastern part of the country will see some showers or rain over the next few days, it is the western half of the country that will see a spell of very wet weather with prolonged and often heavy rain. Mountainous regions in the west and southwest of the country will see the heaviest rainfall, with in excess of 70mm falling in some of these areas within 48 hours. This will lead to some localised surface and river flooding especially for hilly areas, with some disruption to transport and tricky driving conditions possible.”
A stream of tropical air will bring mild and wet weather
The reason behind the wet weather is due to a slow-moving weather front from the remnants of ex-Hurricane Sam. This weather front will stall over the western half of the country bringing a spell of prolonged rainfall to western counties, but it could edge over eastern areas at times bringing some spells of rain to eastern counties too.
Meteorologist Paul Downes continued: “Friday evening in particular will see the heaviest rainfall, although this will mainly be focused across western areas before spreading east overnight. Saturday will see another cloudy and damp start but it’ll gradually brighten up from the west as the weather front clears into the Irish Sea, with cooler, drier and brighter conditions following in the east by Saturday afternoon.”
Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be very mild around 16 to 20°C, the average October temperature in Ireland is around 10°C. Thursday and Friday night will be mild too with temperatures around 12 to 16°C. This mild tropical airmass will be replaced by a fresher polar maritime airmass through Saturday, with temperatures returning closer to normal for the time of year as well as cooler nights.
High pressure building next week
An area of high pressure will gradually build through the weekend bringing more settled and drier weather into next week. There will still be some rain and drizzle around at times, especially in the north, but for many it’ll be dry next week with some spells of Autumn sunshine.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Low pressure will keep our weather unsettled this week with spells of heavy rain at times, however there are signs of more settled conditions on the way next week, as high pressure builds over the weekend.
Monday will see spells of heavy rain developing across the southern half of the country, before clearing through Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be bright and breezy with scattered showers, though turning drier through afternoon. Temperatures on both days will be around average, but it’ll turn much milder and more humid from Wednesday, due to warmer air moving across Ireland associated with ex-Hurricane Sam.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Elizabeth Coleman, said: “Currently off the east coast of the U.S., Hurricane Sam will move north-eastwards towards Iceland over the next few days, weakening as it does so. The path of ex-Hurricane Sam will allow a very mild, tropical maritime airmass to move across Ireland, bringing temperatures well above average for the time of year from Wednesday onwards.”
Location of Hurricane Sam at 00 UTC Mon October 4th on Met Éireann’s airmass and pressure analysis chart
Temperatures from mid-week onwards will be around 15 to 19 Celsius, the average maximum temperature in October is around 10°C.
Forecaster Liz Coleman continued: “The remnants of ex-Hurricane Sam will remain to the far west of Ireland, however the tropical airmass will bring a good deal of dull, cloudy and drizzly weather with mist and fog affecting hills and coasts. Some brighter spells may develop in the east at times. However, a weather front with waves will become slow-moving over western parts of Ireland on Thursday and Friday bringing some persistent falls of rain and the likelihood of local flooding – we have issued a Weather Advisory for some western areas where rain is expected to be heaviest.”
Looking ahead to the weekend, forecaster Liz Coleman continued: “The front is expected to move eastwards over the country on Friday night and Saturday before clearing into the Irish Sea. It will be followed by an area of high pressure building across Ireland for the rest of the weekend bringing more settled conditions and it will gradually turn a bit cooler again. Next week looks fairly settled with seasonal temperature values and high pressure generally dominating, though a little rain may affect some northernmost parts at first.”
Forecast path of Hurricane Sam as of October 4th 2021. Source: NOAA
Provisionally the warmest September on record
Whilst October so far has seen fairly typical Autumnal weather, the month of September was provisionally the warmest September month on record for Ireland, with mean temperatures 2.1°C above their long-term averages (LTA 1981-2010).
Munster and Leinster had their warmest September on record, with mean temperatures of 15.6°C and 15.1°C respectively. Connacht had its joint highest, matching 2006, with 14.7°C. While Ulster had its second highest 14.3°C, its highest was in 2006 with 14.4°C.
A new station temperature record of 27.9°C was recorded at Shannon Airport (in a record going back 75 years), whilst Phoenix Park in Dublin had its warmest September in 122 years, with a mean temperature of 15.8°C (2.4C above its LTA).
Dr Sandra Spillane of Met Éireann’s Climate Services said: “September 2021 has been a notably warm and dry month across the island of Ireland, with mean temperatures well above average and below average rainfall. Much of September was characterised by periods of high pressure which often brings dry and settled weather, before conditions turned more Autumnal towards the end of the month as low pressure moved across Ireland.”
The latest climate projections for Ireland signal a warming trend across all seasons into the future. More details on September 2021 in our Monthly Statement.
Rainfall, temperature and sunshine data for September 2021
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
After a very mild September so far, temperatures will take a noticeable dip early next week as a cold polar maritime airmass arrives across Ireland.
So far this month it has been very mild, dry and calm, with all weather stations across Ireland reporting temperatures 1.5 to 2.7°Celsius above the September average. The above average temperatures will continue into the weekend due to a mild, tropical maritime airmass, however through the second half of Sunday a much cooler, polar maritime airmass will push in across Ireland, introducing more seasonal temperatures.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Monday 27th September 00 UTC showing colder air (green) pushing in across Ireland
Met Éireann meteorologist, Andrew Doran-Sherlock, said: “This weekend will see the last of the above average temperatures, with some places reaching around 20 degrees Celsius. However, from Monday we’ll see a significant change with a much more autumnal feel to our weather, as temperatures dip to a cooler 12 to 15°Celsius.”
“Along with lower temperatures, it’ll turn quite unsettled too with spells of rain and heavy showers along with some windy conditions, which current indications suggest will persist through much of next week.”
Met Éireann are encouraging people to keep a close eye on the forecast this weekend and into next week as spells of heavy rain and showers could lead to hazardous weather conditions in some areas, with the potential for some localised flooding and tricky driving conditions.
Why the change in weather?
Currently the jet stream – the core of strong winds that lies over the boundary between the warmer air to the south and the colder air to the north – is lying to the north of Ireland. As a deep depression develops in the mid-Atlantic later this weekend, the jet stream will wrap around the south of the depression, allowing colder air to sink down from the north over Ireland.
Andrew continued: “The change in weather from next week will be quite noticeable given conditions have been rather warm and settled so far this month – it may be time to dig out the autumn layers, hats and scarves as it is going to feel much chillier.”
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
The first half of this week brought warm and dry weather across Ireland, however the second half of the week will turn more unsettled and less warm along with the chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures this week peaked at 28.3°C in Durrow, Co. Laois on Tuesday – this is provisionally the first time a temperature above 28°C has been recorded in Ireland on a September day in 30 years. The last time temperatures reached 28°C was on 5th September 1991, with 28.4°C at Valentia, Co. Kerry. Temperatures of 28°C or higher have only occurred three times in September since Met Éireann’s digital records began in the 1960’s.
The average maximum temperature for Ireland during September is around 17°C, while the average minimum temperature is 9°C. The highest September maximum temperature on record in Ireland is 29.1°C, recorded on 1st September in Kildare on Saturday 1 September 1906.
Around 10 weather stations across Ireland provisionally recorded new September maximum temperature records on Tuesday, including Sherkin Island, Claremorris and Shannon Airport.
Airmass Analysis chart from 00 UTC Sept 8th 2021
However today (Wednesday 8th) brings a change in weather conditions as the warm airmass and high pressure is replaced by a less warm, more unstable airmass. Met Éireann meteorologist Matthew Martin said: “We’ll still see temperatures reaching into the low 20’s Celsius in some areas over the next few days, but later this week and into the weekend temperatures will fall to around 16 to 19°C, which is more average for the time of year.”
“We also have a more unstable airmass moving in over the country and this will bring the chance of some heavy showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week, though pinpointing when and where the thunderstorms will occur can be a challenge.
“Whilst many areas may avoid the heavy showers and thundery downpours, where they do occur it could lead to the risk of localised flooding and disruption to transport. We’re therefore encouraging people to stay up to date with our forecasts and warnings, as well as our radar so they can keep an eye on thunderstorm development.”
Met Éireann has issued a nationwide Yellow thunderstorm warning valid from today until midday on Thursday 9th, where scattered heavy downpours and thunderstorms could lead to localised flooding in places. The Met Office has a thunderstorm warning in place for Northern Ireland on Thursday.
Status Yellow – Rain & Thunderstorm warning for Ireland
Scattered heavy downpours & thunderstorms are expected in some areas today, tonight & for a time on Thursday. Localised flooding may occur where rainfall is heaviest
Commenting on the forecast for the weekend, Matthew continued: “At the moment it looks like we’ll see a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday, although these showers aren’t expected to be as heavy as what we can expect over the next few days.
“There are signs of high pressure returning next week which could bring a more settled spell, however there’s still a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast at this early stage.”
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
Today (Monday 6th) and tomorrow will see temperatures rise into the low to mid-twenties across Ireland, before turning less warm from Wednesday.
An area of low pressure to the west of Spain has allowed very warm air from north Africa to push up across Ireland, bringing above average temperatures for September. In mid-summer this type of airmass would result in temperatures exceeding 30 Celsius in parts of Ireland, but as we approach the autumn equinox and the days are shorter – there is less time for heat to build.
Airmass Analysis chart from 00 UTC Sept 6th 2021
Met Éireann meteorologist, Matthew Martin, said: “Along with a warm southerly airmass, Ireland is influenced by high pressure over the next few days helping to keep weather fronts largely at bay. This means most places will enjoy long spells of sunshine today and tomorrow, though mist and fog may linger across some southern and eastern coasts through the day.
“Temperatures will reach around 25 Celsius today and possibly up to 27 Celsius tomorrow, with these highest temperatures expected in the midlands.”
“Not everywhere will be sunny and warm today though as parts of Ulster and Connacht will stay rather cloudy with some patchy light rain too, however tomorrow these areas will join the rest of the country with long sunny spells.”
It’ll stay quite warm overnight through the week with temperatures not falling below 15 or 16 Celsius in some places.
The average maximum temperature for Ireland during September is nearly 17°C, while the average minimum temperature is 9°C. The highest September maximum temperature on record in Ireland is 29.1°C, recorded on 1st September in Kildare on Saturday 1 September 1906.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, meteorologist Matthew Martin continued: “Wednesday will be another warm day with temperatures in the low to mid-twenties. However some heavy, scattered showers are likely to develop as an area of low pressure moves towards Ireland bringing more unstable air.
“Thursday and Friday will see the sunny spells and scattered showers continue, these could be heavy and thundery and possibly turn quite widespread, especially on Thursday. It won’t be as warm by the end of the week with temperatures falling back to around 17 to 20 Celsius.”
UV levels will be moderate in sunshine this week, be #SunSmart and follow the advice from Healthy Ireland:
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
High pressure will continue to bring a spell of settled weather to end meteorological summer, with largely dry conditions and long spells of late summer sunshine.
Meteorologist Paul Downes said: “With high pressure firmly in place over Ireland, low pressure systems are being kept well away, maintaining the dry, warm and settled period.”
“Today (Thursday 26th August) will be the warmest day of the week with highs of 21 to 26 degrees. A weakening cold front to the northeast of Ireland will track close to eastern coasts tonight and tomorrow, introducing a slightly cooler east to northeasterly airflow for Friday and the weekend. Temperatures will still be in the high teens to low twenties generally through the weekend with good sunny spells for the most part giving a very pleasant end to the summer.”
Paul continued: “Although it’ll be dry for most this weekend, some cloud may develop along with a spot of drizzle or light shower, especially in northern areas. It’ll also feel a little cooler on exposed coasts.”
The long spells of late summer sunshine will continue well into next week, however early next week temperatures will fall closer to normal with highs in the mid to high teens due to a slightly cooler airmass originating in Scandinavia.
Analysis chart showing pressure and airmass from 06 UTC Thursday 26 August
How long will the settled spell last?
While a breakdown of the high pressure across Ireland does look to be on the cards later next week, there is still some uncertainty as it very much depends on what is happening in the Equatorial Atlantic. The global weather connection can clearly be linked as development in the tropical Atlantic region can have knock on effects in the higher latitudes, such as northern Europe. While there is currently no indication that developing storms may impact Ireland directly next week, the indirect implications can alter our weather patterns, as tropical systems take heat from the warm sea surfaces of the tropics, and release it into the atmosphere. This acts to nudge the flow and alter the speed of the jet stream, which would influence our weather patterns for northern Europe.
Satellite image showing weather developments in the Atlantic on Thurs 26th August. Source: NOAA
The sun is still strong in August and early September and UV levels will generally be moderate to high, so follow the Healthy Ireland #SunSmart steps:
Healthy Ireland SunSmart Steps
Is this an Indian Summer?
An Indian Summer is a term sometimes used to refer to a spell of warm and calm weather in autumn months, usually September to November. As we are still in meteorological summer, this current spell of weather is simply summer weather, with meteorological autumn starting on September 1.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
The last full week of meteorological summer brings a spell of warm and largely dry and sunny weather across Ireland.
Explaining the reasons behind the warm and settled spell, Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy, said: “The jet stream has been displaced to the far north of Europe allowing a large area of high pressure to settle across Ireland and keeping weather fronts and low pressure away from us.
“This means we’re going to see a warm, dry and settled week with temperatures reaching widely into the low 20s Celsius, with some areas possibly seeing 25 to 26 Celsius on Wednesday and Thursday.”
Analysis chart showing pressure and airmass from 00 UTC Tuesday 24 August
This week will also see long spells of late summer sunshine, especially across inland and western areas. However, areas along eastern coasts will be cloudier at times, especially during the mornings and evenings as low cloud, mist and fog drift in from the Irish sea due to a light easterly breeze.
The sun is still strong in August and UV levels will generally be moderate to high this week, so follow the Healthy Ireland #SunSmart steps:
Healthy Ireland SunSmart Steps
Commenting on how long the warm and settled spell will last, Aoife, continued: “The area of high pressure will stick around until at least this weekend and even into next week, so it looks like this settled spell will take us into the early days of meteorological autumn, though indications suggest that temperatures next week will be closer to average, in the high teens or low twenties.”
Is this an Indian Summer?
An Indian Summer is a term sometimes used to refer to a spell of warm and calm weather in autumn months, usually September to November. As we are still in meteorological summer, this current spell of weather is simply summer weather, with meteorological autumn starting on September 1.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
After a notably chilly May so far, temperatures are on the rise this weekend reaching into the high teens and possibly low 20’s Celsius in places.
Daytime temperatures across Ireland have been below average so far this month, with many stations 2°C below the May average. However, as we head into the weekend, much of Ireland will enjoy a spell of settled and warmer weather to end the month.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “Whilst there’s some wet weather across southern & western areas today (Thursday 27th), northern and eastern areas will enjoy a largely dry and bright day, though rain will eventually move here later this afternoon and evening. This system will gradually clear through Friday, followed by high pressure becoming well established for the weekend.
“We’ll also have southerly winds which will bring warmer air and this, in combination with the strong sun at this time of year, means we’re going to see higher temperatures into the high teens and low twenties Celsius in places.”
The highest temperature reached so far this year is 21.2° Celsius, recorded on April 1st at Valentia, Kerry. With warmer weather in store this weekend we could see temperatures come close, especially on Sunday.
Surface pressure chart for Saturday 29th May showing high pressure across Ireland
Saturday will be generally cloudy to start with patchy drizzle mainly affecting some western areas and the northeast coast. Cloud will break up through the afternoon as sunny spells develop and it’ll become dry apart from isolated showers. Temperatures will reach around 16 to 19 Celsius, possibly 20 Celsius in the best of the sunshine across eastern areas.
Sunday will be another warm and largely dry day with sunny spells for many, temperatures reaching around 17 to 21 Celsius. The highest temperatures are expected in the midlands and east in the best of the sunshine, whereas areas further west and southwest will see cloudier skies and temperatures not quite as high.
UV levels will be moderate to high over the weekend, especially in strong sunshine. You can keep an eye on the UV index for your region here and remember to take care in the sun.
On Monday rain and drizzle will push east across the country, bringing a cooler and cloudier day with highs between 13 and 17 degrees. However, it should stay and warm dry for eastern and southeastern areas with sunny spells and temperatures reaching 18 or 19 degrees. Certainty then decreases as we move into next week but current indications suggest that it will stay warm with sunny spells, though showery rain will affect some areas at times also.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
A spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather is on the way this Bank Holiday Monday, as an active low-pressure system moves across Ireland.
Ahead of this system which will arrive in the early hours of Monday morning, Saturday and Sunday will see a mix of scattered showers and sunny spells, with temperatures below average for the time of year. An unstable northerly airmass extends across the country on Friday and Saturday, feeding in cold air and leading to some overnight frosts. On Saturday, slow-moving, scattered showers will develop through the afternoon and these could turn thundery at times along with the risk of hail. In between showers there will be good sunny spells with temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees Celsius expected. Most showers will ease through Saturday night with temperatures dipping under clear spells to around -1 to +3 degrees Celsius, leading to a frost in a few places along with mist patches.
Forecast airmass chart for Saturday 1st May showing the cold northerly airflow over Ireland. Blue colours indicate a cold airmass.
On Sunday a westerly airflow will establish across Ireland along with a slight ridge of high pressure, leading to a good deal of dry weather but still a few scattered showers could pop up in places – though these aren’t expected to be as heavy as Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will still be on the cool side around 9 to 13 degrees Celsius, but it could feel quite pleasant in long sunny spells.
Commenting on the transition to more unsettled weather on Bank Holiday Monday, Met Éireann forecaster, Andrew Doran-Sherlock, said: “Later on Sunday night cloud will push in across the country, heralding a change to much more unsettled conditions as a low-pressure system makes its way towards Ireland from the Atlantic.”
“Monday will start wet and blustery across Ireland with unseasonably strong winds developing quite widely, along with the potential for gale or near gale force winds across coastal areas. There may also be a risk of localised flooding in areas expected to see the heaviest and most persistent rain, particularly across Atlantic and northern counties.”
Andrew continued: “The low-pressure system will clear eastwards away from Ireland later on Monday, with a northerly airflow re-establishing across Ireland. This will keep temperatures below average next week, around 8 to 12 degrees Celsius and it’ll stay on the unsettled side too.”
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
A spell of unseasonably cold weather is forecast across Ireland this weekend, with daytime temperatures well below average and some very cold nights and widespread frosts ahead.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood, said: “We’re seeing another spell of cold weather this weekend as an arctic airmass re-establishes across the country through Friday, bringing the chance of scattered wintry showers of sleet, hail and snow over the weekend. Temperatures today (Friday 9th) will reach around 6 to 10 Celsius, followed by a very cold night with a widespread sharp frost as temperatures overnight fall to around -3 in places.
“Saturday will be another cold day with temperatures limited to around 5 to 9 Celsius, once again falling to around -3 in places overnight and another widespread frost with the risk of icy stretches.”
Forecast chart for Saturday 10th April showing a cold northerly airflow across Ireland (blue colours) that will bring below average temperatures, along with the chance of wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow.
Along with bright spells of sunshine over the weekend, the cold Arctic airmass will bring the chance of scattered wintry showers of sleet and hail, especially on Saturday. There’ll also be a risk of thunderstorms, as well as snow showers over the hills and mountains. Showers will be lighter and less widespread on Sunday.
Sharp frosts at this time of year can cause problems for gardeners, so take care to cover vulnerable plants and protect from frost damage. The cold weather can also pose challenges for farmers and so we’re encouraging farmers to keep an eye on our farming commentary.
Looking ahead to next week, meteorologist Emer Flood continued: “Later on Sunday conditions will turn less cold, as northerly winds are replaced by slightly milder westerly winds. Monday will be a cloudier day with rain spreading from the west to most areas during the day. Temperatures will be slightly up from the weekend too, with highs of around 7 to 10 Celsius.”
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
The weather in the lead up to Easter weekend will be largely dry and settled with sunny spells for most. However later on Easter Sunday we’ll see a big change as much colder air arrives across the country, introducing the chance of wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Matthew Martin, said: “High pressure will establish across Ireland in the run up to Easter, allowing a spell of settled weather lasting until the first half of Easter Sunday.
“It’ll be largely dry with sunny spells for most, though there’ll be a bit of a temperature contrast – today and Good Friday we could see highs of around 15 to 18 Celsius across southern and western areas in the best of the sunshine, whereas northern and eastern areas will be notably cooler as easterly breezes keep temperatures at around 10 to 12 Celsius. These coastal areas may also see low cloud lingering through the first part of the day. Saturday will be another dry day with good spells of sunshine and temperatures of around 10 to 13 Celsius, still feeling cooler though along northern and eastern coasts.”
Commenting on the forecast for Easter Sunday and the change to colder conditions, Matthew continued: “Easter Sunday will start dry with sunshine for most and whilst southern areas will continue to enjoy a dry and bright day, a cold front will introduce cloud and rain across the northern half of the country through the afternoon – it’s this cold front that opens the gates to very cold air from the Arctic from Easter Sunday night and through much of next week.”
Forecast chart for Monday 5th April showing a colder, northerly airflow across Ireland (blue colours) that will bring wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow across the island.
The cold airmass will introduce the chance of wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow on Easter Monday and Easter Tuesday, with temperatures limited to around 3 to 7 Celsius. Temperatures overnight will widely fall close to freezing with a touch of frost in places, which could cause problems for gardeners so take care to cover vulnerable plants and protect from frost damage.
The cold snap could also pose challenges for farmers and so we’re encouraging farmers to keep an eye on our farming commentary ahead of the cold conditions arriving later this weekend.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
A vigorous depression will track to the northwest of Ireland tonight with very strong south-westerly winds developing over Ireland, veering westerly overnight. Gales will develop around all Irish coasts with Storm Force winds expected for a time in south-western sea areas. Status Orange wind warnings are in operation for County Kerry and County Cork from 8pm today (Wednesday 11th March) until midnight with a Status Yellow Weather Warning in operation for much of the rest of the country through until 7am Thursday 11 March. See full details on our weather warnings here: https://www.met.ie/warnings/today
(Fig 1: Position of depression at 00UTC 10 March, centred to the southwest of Ireland with a central pressure of 967hPa. The low pressure system will track to the northwest of Ireland tonight bringing a swathe of very strong winds across Ireland with some severe gusts in the south and southwest expected)
In the wake of the vigorous depression a cold and unstable westerly air-flow will follow over Ireland with showery conditions and brisk winds. There will be widespread showers on Thursday, Friday and Saturday with a risk of hail and some thunderstorms. A cold polar maritime air-mass will lie over Ireland and this will allow for some wintry showers over high ground, especially on Saturday.
(Fig 2: A cold and unstable westerly air-flow will become established over Ireland on Thursday 11 March with heavy showers embedded in the flow)
(Fig 3: Many of the showers that follow will be heavy with a risk of hail and lightning. The above chart shows the risk of lightning across Ireland on Thursday 1200UTC forecast by IREPS)
Early indications are that milder weather will begin to move in for Sunday and next week with some rain or showers with a trend for high pressure to become established near Ireland by the middle of next week allowing for drier and more pleasant weather conditions to develop.
(Fig 4: Early indications are that high pressure will build in over Ireland for St. Patrick’s Day but there is still some uncertainty in the forecast)
Monday 08 March 15:00
After a rather quiet start to meteorological spring, conditions will turn much more unsettled this week with spells of wet and very windy weather on the way.
High pressure has brought largely dry and settled weather since the start of March, but as the jet stream moves over Ireland in the next few days this will steer a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems towards us.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Paul Downes, said: “Today (Monday 8th) will be the last day of the current spell of settled weather, before conditions turn widely unsettled from tomorrow with spells of wet and windy weather expected through the rest of the week.
Image: Forecast chart for 1800UTC Wednesday 10th March showing deep low to the NW of Ireland
“Although tomorrow (Tuesday 9th) will start dry, rain and strong winds will push east across the country from tomorrow afternoon, becoming widespread by early evening. Further wet and very windy weather is expected on Wednesday as a deep low-pressure system tracks to the northwest of Ireland – bringing very strong south-westerly winds and spells of heavy rain through Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.”
Met Éireann has issued a nationwide yellow wind warning from 12:00 on Wednesday, to 07:00 on Thursday, where mean wind speeds could reach 50 to 65 km/h and gusts could reach around 100km/h in exposed locations, with damaging impacts possible.
Meteorologist Paul Downes continued: “During the early hours of Thursday this low-pressure system will clear away from Ireland, introducing a colder and more unstable airmass. However, it will remain very windy into the weekend along with blustery showers, these possibly turning wintry over high ground.”
Image: Forecast chart for Friday 12th March showing cooler polar maritime airmass over UK & Ireland
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
Monday-Wednesday: Risk of snow showers, frost and ice
A cold easterly air-flow has now become established over Ireland and over the next few days the risk of snow showers will increase with eastern counties at greatest risk. The risk of snow accumulations will increase tonight (Monday night), through tomorrow (Tuesday) and for a time on Wednesday before the main focus for snowfall risk turns to the attempted frontal breakdown from the Atlantic on Thursday and Friday.
Sea-effect snow showers
The risk of wintry showers over the next few days will be driven by what is termed the ‘sea-effect’. Similar to lake-effect snowfall that is common place in North America during winter, sea-effect snow is a term used to describe the mechanism by which showers develop over the sea during winter. Sea/Lake effect snow occurs when cold polar or arctic air flows over relatively warm water, generating convective bands of showers downwind from the body of water. These shower bands can at times become quite narrow and intense giving significant falls of snow in very localised areas whilst some adjacent areas receive very little snowfall. Convective snow showers or bands are enhanced by lift due to frictional convergence and orography over the leeward shore and other factors such as wind fetch play a critical role in determining the intensity and extent of the sea-effect snow showers or bands. In Ireland, the Irish Sea is often the origin for many of our wintry showers during an easterly or north-easterly air-flow, however, they can also form in northern sea areas and in the Celtic Sea.
Typically, the temperature difference between the water surface and the lower atmosphere (850hPa) must be at least 13°C to support convective sea-effect shower formation over the Irish Sea. At present sea-surface temperatures are around +8°C whilst forecast 850hPa temperatures are around -10°C, resulting in a 18°C differential which should be sufficient to create some snow showers over the coming days.
Fig 1: ECMWF Sea Surface Temperature forecast for Monday 00UTC February 8th 2021
Fig 2: ECMWF Forecast chart of 850hPa temperature for Monday 1200UTC February 8th 2021
Areas at greatest risk of seeing snowfall are highlighted in the white/green shades in the ECMWF forecast charts below. However, this is a rough guide and showers are likely to be more widespread than highlighted in these graphics.
Fig3: ECMWF Forecast snowfall risk Monday night to Wednesday
Thursday & Friday: Frontal snow risk
On Thursday, frontal rain-bands in the Atlantic are forecast to move towards Ireland and as they encounter the cold air in situ over Ireland further snowfall is predicted. However, there is some uncertainty as to how far these frontal bands track north-eastwards over Ireland as high pressure over Scandinavia is dominating and acting to weaken these fronts as they move into the cold air. However, current projections indicate a spell of sleet and snow spreading north-eastwards over Ireland on Thursday and into Friday bringing accumulations of snow to many areas. However, the snow may transition to rain in some southern and western parts as milder air attempts to move in from the Atlantic.
Fig 4: Forecast chart for Thursday 1200UTC 11 February 2021 shows low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure positioned over Scandinavia. Over Ireland, there is a boundary between very cold air to the east and northeast and milder air from the Atlantic with a spell of snow expected
Fig 5: Forecast rain, sleet and snow on Thursday 0600-1200UTC 11 February 2021
Fig 6: Forecast rain, sleet and snow on Thursday 1800-2359UTC 11 February 2021
At time of writing, a weather advisory is currently in operation and weather warnings are likely to be issued in the coming days.
As always, you can stay up to date with Met Éireann’s weather and warnings by monitoring the following pages on our website and please sign up for weather warning notifications on your smartphone Met.ie app.
Our weather is expected to turn progressively colder from early on Sunday 7th February, with the cold spell now looking likely to last well into next week. The origin of the cold air over Scandinavia will bring a northeasterly or easterly component to the wind-flow over Ireland. That wind will be especially noticeable on Sunday and Monday with gusty east to northeast winds likely to produce a significant wind-chill factor.
00z Run ECMWF from 4th Feb.
Wet Bulb Potential Temperature forecast from Sunday 7th – Wednesday 10th February.
Indicates temperatures at around 1.5km (850hPa) up in the atmosphere. Below zero with precipitation = snow likely at surface.
Daytime temperatures are expected to struggle in the low single figures, generally 1 to 3 degrees Celsius, which means any frost or ice that forms at night will be slow to clear, if it clears at all, so the risk of icy roads and footpaths will increase.
ECMWF Forecast Daytime Maximum Temperatures on Sunday, Monday & Tuesday (l-r)
Snowfall is expected in the form of showers from Sunday onwards, but more especially later on Monday and during Tuesday. Any showers are likely to be restricted to eastern parts of Leinster and Ulster initially, but a few may push further inland during Tuesday.
Forecast snow for Midday Tuesday 9th Feb over 3 consecutive runs of the ECMWF model. Latest run on the left – earlier runs from Monday 3rd Feb on the right.
There is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast from Wednesday 10th February onwards, but it looks as though Atlantic frontal systems will attempt to push milder air in from the south to displace the cold air in situ over Ireland.
It is still too early to predict how energetic or vigorous these frontal systems will be, and that has a downstream effect on the impact that this clash of mild and cold air may have over Ireland. If the frontal feature is vigorous, for example, it would likely make quick progress northeastwards over the country and any associated snowfall would be a transient affair with rain following behind. However, if the frontal system has less energy as it comes towards us and starts to become slow-moving either on its approach or as it tracks over us, we could end up in a situation where some parts of Ireland could see more significant and lasting snowfall.
Whatever the case snow-ice and/or low temperature warnings are likely in the coming days for conditions from Sunday through Tuesday, and forecasts for the latter part of next week will be updated and fine-tuned as we move closer to the time.
As always, you can stay up to date with Met Éireann’s weather and warnings by monitoring the following pages on our website:
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
Wet and windy weather tonight, gradually getting colder Saturday with the risk of sleet and snow increasing.
Over the coming days Ireland will lie between colder air to the north and an active zonal Atlantic pattern to the south that will feed in several lows bringing rain sleet and snow at times as well as blustery east winds.
ECMWF: WBPT, 1000-500 thickness, MSLP and 6h rain chart for Sat 06Z
River and Surface Water Flood Risk
Soils are mostly waterlogged countrywide, or at least in saturated conditions. Rivers are already elevated in the Northern half of the country, in response to appreciable rainfall over the last week. Over the coming days, multiple separate spells of precipitation will further exacerbate the flood risk across the country. Localised flooding is expected over the weekend and into next week, particularly in the Northern half of the country.
Coastal Flood Risk
We are in a period of Spring (High) Tides. The combination of Spring (High) Tides, strong onshore winds and storm surge associated with the low pressure systems to the south-west of Ireland tonight and into Saturday, is likely to increase the risk of localised coastal flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas along the East Coast (when coincident with High Tides and strong onshore winds).
Becoming wet and windy tonight. Status yellow rainfall warning issued.
The first deep area of low pressure will begin to track to the south of Ireland tonight bringing a band of rain northwards across the country. A status yellow rainfall warning will come into effect from 3am for Wicklow and Wexford with heavy rain bringing accumulations of 30 to 40mm and a risk of localized flooding overnight.
Further to this easterly winds will increase fresh to strong and gusty overnight, while there is a status yellow gale warning in effect from Valentia to Loop Head to Slyne Head. While the winds will generally remain below Status Yellow level overland they will be very strong for the less common and often less sheltered easterly direction.
Becoming cooler on Saturday with sleet and snow on higher ground.
With cold air to the north in close proximity and moving southwards gradually on Saturday morning, precipitation will turn to sleet or snow over higher ground with accumulations possibly building quite quickly. This will lead to hazardous condition, especially through the Wicklow Mountains.
The precipitation will clear southeastwards during the afternoon and the winds will ease.
Saturday night starts off cold and frosty with rain sleet and snow moving in from the west by morning.
While Saturday night will start off cold with some clear spells and an early frost, leading to icy patches, in many northern parts, a further spell of rain, sleet and snow will cross the country early on Sunday.
Greatest risk of snow in northern parts
The northern half of the country looks likely to see the greatest risk of sleet and snow with some accumulations, however warmer temperatures in the south will slowly move northwards with sleet and snow gradually transitioning back to rain in most areas. It will be a cold day however with afternoon highs of just 1 to 4 degrees in most areas, while Munster will remain warmer.
While an advisory has been issued for the weekend, further weather warning are likely and our warnings page should be monitored for updates.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
The stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is a rotating vortex of cold air high up in the stratosphere over polar regions. It forms every winter in the Northern Hemisphere and the strength of the Northern Hemisphere SPV has a significant influence on the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather patterns. When the SPV is in a strong symmetrical state, it helps to maintain westerly momentum in the troposphere over polar regions and in the mid-latitudes, leading to our typical winter pattern of a strong west to east North Atlantic jetstream, bringing storms and weather fronts over Ireland from the west or southwest and keeping it mild and wet. When the SPV is in a weakened or non symmetrical state, it can lead to the weakened jetstream behaving more like a meandering river with blocking high pressure forming in our region, bringing the possibility of colder, drier weather.
When a weakened SPV goes through further disruption, it can lead to what is know as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, which refers to the reversal of the zonal winds in the Stratosphere from westerly to easterly, along with a rapid jump in temperatures in the winter polar stratosphere that leads to a complete breakdown of the SPV. A SSW is now defined to have happened when the mean zonal wind (ZW) at 60°N and 10hPa (approx. 30km high) reverses to easterly. A SSW event usually has a significant impact on the tropospheric weather patterns in the mid latitudes. Following a SSW, there can be an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jetstream with associated cold conditions over northern Europe and these impacts can be long lasting. Every SSW is different and less than half of them lead to colder conditions in Ireland. For example, the SSW in February 2018 led to the ‘beast from the east’ and storm Emma, whereas the SSW in January 2019 had no significant impact here, due to the easterly winds not propagating down into the troposphere from the stratosphere. See more about the 2018 SSW event in a report on Storm Emma here.
The current state and forecast for the SPV
The SPV has been below average strength through most of December 2020 (pink line—left panel below) and is forecast to continue weakening (orange line –left panel below) to below zero m/s, which means changing from westerly to easterly. This signifies a technical SSW. The mean zonal winds at the bottom of the stratosphere have also been at very low levels (pink line— right panel below), and are forecast to decrease to record low levels over the next week (orange line– right panel below). This has been, and continues to be a contributing factor in the blocking high pressure systems we have seen in our region lately. The lack of westerly momentum at the bottom of the stratosphere helps to slow down the North Atlantic jetstream in the troposphere and leads to it meandering like a river, north to south, resulting in a more blocked pattern in the mid latitudes. https:// acd–ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh
What this reversal looks like can be seen in the below charts. These show the zonal mean wind averaged around the globe at each latitude line. The orange and red colours signify westerly winds and the blue signify easterly winds, with the numbers on each contour showing the m/s value. The values on the x-axis represent latitude, with EQ meaning the Equator. The values on the y-axis represent height in hPa. For example 10 hPa is approximately 30km high and is in the stratosphere, where as 200 hPa is approximately 10km high and is the top of the troposphere. On the 29th December 2020 (left panel below) the zonal winds high up in the stratosphere between 60 and 90N were between 20 and 60 m/s westerly and the sub-tropical jetstream, at 30N and 200hPa height was at 40m/s westerly. The forecast for the 5th January 2021 (right panel below) show the polar stratospheric winds have reversed to between 20 and 40 m/s easterly and are beginning to propagate down into the lower stratosphere. The sub-tropical jetstream averaged around the whole globe has intensified to 50 m/s. https://www.geo.fu–berlin.de/ en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html
In the below charts, looking down from a northern hemisphere point of view at the 10 hPa height level (at the same times as above) the temperatures are represented by colours, with the °C values on the left and the geopotential height is represented by contours. On the 29th December 2020 (left panel below), the already weakened polar vortex, with its low pressure centre just to the northwest of Scandinavia, is surrounded by tightly packed height contours representing the strong westerly winds rotating anticlockwise around the vortex. The ZW at that stage was 25.2 m/s and can be seen at the bottom of the chart. There is already a strong warming signal over Siberia represented by the red colours. On the forecast chart for the 5th January 2021 (right panel below) the warming signal and associated high pressure has worked its way around and is penetrating into the polar vortex, pushing it further away from the north pole and almost splitting it. The more this high pressure pushes in over the north pole, the more the ZW changes from westerly to easterly. The ZW has reversed to easterly at this stage, shown by the -3.2 m/s at the bottom of the chart.
It is uncertain how this will affect our weather in the coming weeks as we are already in a very blocked setup. It could kick-start the westerly momentum in our region, at least temporarily, as the SPV is pushed over Scandinavia, leading to a strengthening of the North Atlantic jetstream, resulting in a more typical winter weather pattern for Ireland. It could also prolong and intensify the high latitude blocked setup leading to cold polar air masses flooding south into northern Europe or elsewhere in the mid latitudes.
Monthly Weather Forecast
Met Éireann are now issuing monthly forecasts twice a week, at 5pm every Tuesday and Friday, beginning 5th January. It will be available here in the Forecast menu. Monthly forecasting covers the time range of around 10 to 40 days ahead and is really more correctly described as sub-seasonal or extended-range. It is a time scale in between medium-range weather forecasting (10-day)* and seasonal forecasting (3 monthly).
Meteorologist's Commentary
Heatwave conditions very likely this week - August 2022
by Paul Downes, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann. Issued 9th August 2022
(Updated by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022)
HARMONIE maximum and minimum air temperature forecast – Thursday 11th to Sunday 14th august
High pressure will generally dominate our weather over the coming days, so as it’s warming up once again, what are we to expect with this spike in temperatures?
First off, will this be a heat wave?
Well for the first time this summer we can say with a high degree of confidence that heatwave criteria will be met in some parts of the country.
So what exactly defines a heat wave?
The definition of a heat wave in Ireland is shaded air temperatures reaching highs of above 25˚ C on five or more consecutive days at the same location.
So where in Ireland is likely to see widespread temperatures with maxima in excess of 25˚ C over the coming 5 day period?
From at least Wednesday the 10th through Sunday the 14th, maximum temperatures above 25˚ C look very likely for much of Munster and Leinster, and in large parts of these provinces, temperatures are likely to reach the upper 20’s for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday.
There is an exception to be made here; even though winds over land will be quite low, sea breezes will set up especially along east and south-east coasts and this will limit the maximum temperatures to the lower 20’s close to the shoreline.
Over Connacht and Ulster maximum temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 20’s on Wednesday and Thursday, however maximum temperatures will rise to the mid 20’s or a little higher from Friday onwards, so while temperatures may rise above 25˚ C in some parts over the coming 5 days it is unlikely that at any one station this will happen on all 5 days and thus will fall short of the heatwave criteria.
Sea fog may linger locally on all coasts at times also and that will limit maximum temperatures in these locations.
Uncertainty increases as we progress through Sunday and into the early days of next week with a slight chance of thunderstorms later on Sunday and into Monday, likely heralding a return to cooler near average temperatures.
Where will be warmest and are there any high temperature warnings?
Much of Munster and Leinster will see temperatures rise into the upper 20’s later in the week, although coastal fringes will remain slightly less warm. A status yellow high temperature warning has been issued with highs likely to exceed 27 degrees over a large area for more than 2 successive days, beginning on Thursday, while night time lows will remain above 15°C for much of the night time hours over the same region. As the week progresses and the forecast becomes more certain, some counties further to the north and west like Galway and Roscommon may be added also.
Will the record for highest temperature in August be broken?
The highest August temperature was set 27 years ago on Sunday 2nd August 1995 at Oak Park, Co. Carlow (11.3°C above its 1981-2010 long-term-average), with 31.5°C.
Oak Park will likely be one station to watch again later this week, especially on Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of exceeding the August record temperature is quite low. However, temperatures exceeding 30°C locally cannot be ruled out.
Weather extreme records for Ireland
What’s the highest temperature of 2022 so far?
Phoenix Park, Co Dublin observed at 14:40 Irish time (13:40 UTC) on Monday 18 July 2022 a shade maximum air temperature of 33.0 °C which is 12.8 °C above its 1981-1981 long-term average (LTA) of 20.2 °C.
Update by Brandon Creagh, Meteorologist, Forecast Division, Met Éireann on Thursday 11th August 2022
How is the heatwave evolving?
All areas in Ireland are now expected to become very warm or hot from tomorrow onwards, and so the Status Yellow temperature warning has been extended to all counties from 12:00 Friday until 06:00 Sunday.
Wednesday temperatures:
As Paul predicted, Oak Park in Carlow was the station to watch as it recorded the highest temperature yesterday of 29.2 degrees Celsius.
50% of stations in Met Eireann’s TUSCON station network reached 25 degrees, signalling the likely start of a heatwave, with mainly coastal stations remaining below the threshold.
Thursday temperatures:
Oak Park in Carlow is again today’s hottest station, recording 30.0°C at 1500, just below the record for August, which remains at 31.5°C for the time being.
So far today 57% of TUSCON stations have reached at least 25°C, signalling more widespread hot temperatures today.
Has the weekend forecast changed?
Very little has changed for the weekend forecast and we remain on track for this spell of hot weather to reach heatwave criteria, as daily temperature maxima will very likely remain above 25°C.
Saturday:
Sunday:
The Breakdown:
The high pressure system largely responsible for the spell of hot weather will likely break down on Sunday, with medium-range models predicting low pressure to push up from the southeast and bring possibly heavy and thundery showers on Sunday evening.
What are the major impacts and concerns for this potential heatwave?
Unfortunately there have been a number of water related fatalities this year, and it is therefore paramount that water safety is at the forefront of our minds when it comes to enjoying the warm conditions, or seeking relief when it gets too hot.
Please follow water safety guidelines and be vigilant of those around you. Check the latest sea area and inland lakes forecasts here.
Sea area forecast
Inland lakes
Water Safety Ireland
The UV index will be high through the coming days and limiting exposure is advised, especially for children and vulnerable adults.
UV Index
UV Index legend – Healthy Ireland
Average UV and temperatures rise and fall during the day during Summer
Hydration is once again very important through this period as it will also remain very warm and muggy at night time. This applies to farm animals and pets also.
With ground conditions becoming very dry over the course of the summer, water tables are low and water should be conserved where possible. So try and only use water where necessary and avoid wastage.
With the very dry conditions and the gradual increase in temperatures exacerbating that, fire risk will be high so always make sure to properly extinguish barbeques, and avoid lighting open fires in wooded or grassland areas.
Below is a guide to fire weather conditions
Fire weather index
Please remember that warm or hot spells like this actually contribute the greatest weather related risk to life, so while it can be a welcome event for some, please be cautious to the many risks to your health and safety.
For full information on government guidance to staying safe in summer, please consult the Be Summer-Ready booklet.
With some sweltering heat on the way, what is causing it and what can you expect?
**Update 1600 Monday**
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in the early 1800s, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Sweltering heat forecast from 17th to 19th July – what to expect
by Meteorologist Paul Downes
While Europe has been basking in what seems like an eternal heat wave all summer long, Ireland has seen mostly a very average summer. Over the next few days however a combination of factors will help to steer those higher temperatures our way, if only for a relatively brief spell of very warm temperatures.
So what is causing it?
ECMWF-Temperature and geopotential height forecast.
Initially a portion of the Azores High will extend from the southwest over Ireland for the weekend. It will bring a rise in temperatures but still hold the warmer air to the south. As the high pressure moves away to the east, the anticyclonic, or clockwise rotation will steer up air from the southeast, but the real contributing factor is how it interacts with a low pressure system developing off the coast of Portugal and gradually meandering northwards. The cyclonic or anticlockwise flow of the low working in conjuction with the anticyclonic flow from the high will generate a strong surge of warm air between both systems thus pushing the warm air towards Ireland, transporting the airmass that has brought exceptional temperatures to Europe, towards Ireland.
What temperatures should we expect?
While the high builds in on Friday and Saturday the high temperatures will range generally in the low to mid 20’s. There will also be some upper cloud at times making sunshine a little hazy and there is a chance of a few showers too.
As the high begins to drift a little to the east on Sunday, temperatures will rise to mid to upper 20’s with temperatures possibly surpassing 30 locally on Monday. There is a little more uncertainty regarding Tuesday but it does look like it will be another hot day and perhaps as hot if not hotter than Monday. While this warmer air moves in our direction there will be the chance of a few thundery bursts especially on Tuesday.
Maximum temperatures Saturday to Sunday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Sunday to Monday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Monday to Tuesday – ECMWF
Maximum temperatures Tuesday to Wednesday – ECMWF
With temperatures soaring, it is important to remain hydrated and be Sun Smart, that goes for animals as well as ourselves. Be prepared and remember to Be Summer Ready
The night time temperature will also be very warm and humid with temperatures on Sunday and Monday night not likely to fall below the mid to high teens and in some areas they may not fall below 20°C, which is known as a Tropical night.
Status Yellow High Temperature Warning Issued
We have issued a Status Yellow High Temperature warning for Ireland.
On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday exceptionally warm weather will occur over Ireland with daytime temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees generally and possibly up to 32 degrees in places on Monday. Night time temperatures will range from 15 to 20 degrees.
Impacts:
• Heat stress, especially for the more vulnerable of the population
• High Solar UV index
• Risk of water related incidents
See D.A.F.M. Fire Danger Notice and read full safety advice on www.gov.ie/summerready
The Breakdown
Currently it looks as if the breakdown will happen on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the Low pressure system moves up over Ireland steering in cooler air from the west for the rest of the week. This will also bring some wet conditions on Wednesday.
Climate Change & Extreme Heat – July 2022
Over recent decades we have observed an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extremely hot weather across most global land regions. Human-caused climate change resulting from greenhouse gas pollution is the main driver of this increase in extreme heat.
The Phoenix Park has provisionally recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in 1891, reaching 33.0°C on Monday 18th July 2022 around 3:30pm, which is:
Other stations which have recorded provisional highest-ever temperatures are Dunsany, Co. Meath at 30.2° (10.7°C above LTA), and Mullingar, Co. Westmeath at 30.4°C (11.2°C above LTA).
Europe is currently experiencing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with widespread wildfires, excess deaths and water shortages reported in Spain, France and Portugal. The UK has issued its first ever red warning for exceptional heat as temperatures could reach 40°C in some places.
While extremely hot weather does occur within natural climate variability, the kinds of temperature extremes we are seeing in Europe are directly influenced by climate change. Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s ‘Climate Services Division’ said “ Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
Ireland’s record Temperature
33.3°C Kilkenny (Kilkenny Castle) 26th June 1887
Heatwave in parts of Europe June 2022
Issued Tuesday 21 June 2022
What brought the heat to the south-western part of the continent?
High pressure ridge already formed in the South West Europe by 12 June 2022, with an Atlantic low-pressure system between the Azores islands and Madeira, which caused the uprising of warm air in western Europe (source: WMO). This ridge did not move and the temperatures rose gradually day to day. Maximum temperatures were often above 30°C and 8 to 10°C higher than the climatological average.
WMO Tweet
Provisional temperature records
Saint-Jean-De-Minervois reached 40°C on 16 June, earliest every 40°C in France. Cottbus, Germany temperature 140 year-old record was broken with 39.2°C on 19 June 2022 (since 1888, previous record was 38.9°C set on 29 July 1921). Up to 43°C was observed in Andalusia, Spain. A June temperature record was broken for the western part of Austria with 36.5°C. High temperature records were also set in Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland.
The heatwave is expected to come to the rest of central and south Europe in the next few days. While a Saharan dust storm will deteriorate air quality in southern France, Italy, Balearic Islands, Spain & the Balkan Peninsula. (source: CopernicusEU) .
Read more
“Climate projection models suggest that heatwaves as likely to become more frequent, longer and more intense, start earlier and finish later than in the past.” Keith Lambkin, Senior Climatologist.
Why did Ireland not achieve these high temperatures?
On Saturday, a front lay over the southeast of the country which slowly cleared south-eastwards. A moderate northwest breeze which felt cool and kept the temperatures low. On Sunday, there was a depression of 999 hPa centred to the northwest of Scotland which was tracking eastward. So the air across Ireland is flowing eastward, keeping the continental heat away from our shores.
What is a climatological heatwave in Ireland?
In terms of climate monitoring, a heatwave occurs at a station when there five (5) consecutive days or more observe a daily maximum temperature over 25 degrees Celsius (> 25 °C).
In general in Ireland, heatwaves occur in June, July and August. There has been only one instance of a heatwave beginning in May (Glenties Hatchery, Co Donegal in 2012) and four starting in September, all within the first 2 weeks – one occurring in 1959 and the others occurred in 1991. The peak month for heatwaves in Ireland is July. The average heatwaves is 6 days long. It would be rare to have a heatwave longer than 9 days. The longest heatwave observed is 14 days in Laois and Offaly in August 1976.
Temperatures in June 2022 so far
The highest daily maximum shaded air temperature of 2022 so far is 23.9°C which occurred on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Phoenix Park, Co Dublin.
Currently June 2022 is two thirds completed and is 41st warmest June on record (Island of Ireland long-term series, 123 years) with an average temperature to yesterday of 13.7°C. This value is a half degree above June’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and is currently on average to the 1991-2020 June average. Typically in Ireland, we would expect warmer temperatures towards the end of the month, as the summer progresses. So we are expecting June 2022 to be warmer than 41st warmest. We will have to wait another 10 days to find out however.
June Island of Ireland long-term temperature anomalies (June 2022 up to 20 June only)
What’s in store for the coming days of June 2022
Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings:
National Forecast
UV Index
Weather Warnings
May 2022 highlights:
May 2022 was provisionally Ireland’s 3rd warmest on record. The average temperature being 12.6°C, which is 1.9°C above May’s 20th century average (1901-2000) and 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Temperature data and news:
Third warmest May in 123 years – May 2022
What we measure – Temperature
Other resources:
climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-may-2022
www.ifrc.org/heat-action-day
Today is the #SummerSolstice and #ShowYourStripes Day. Source: showyourstripes.info/l/europe/ireland
Turning colder this week but staying mainly dry
Following the current spell of warm and dry weather it’s going to turn much colder by mid-week as a cooler airmass arrives across Ireland from Scandinavia.
The highest temperature of 2022 so far was recorded on Sunday, with 18.9 degrees reached at Newport Furnace, Co. Mayo. While the pleasant weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday, there is the chance of a few showers at times mainly over the eastern half of the country, generated by more unstable air. However the most significant change will come on Wednesday as a northerly airflow establishes across the country feeding in noticeably colder air from Scandinavia.
Met Eireann meteorologist, Brandon Creagh, said: “It’s going to get noticeably colder from Wednesday as an anticyclone over Iceland will bring cold northerly winds over Ireland on Wednesday and into Thursday. Showers will develop over the eastern half of the country with a slight risk of wintry precipitation over high ground.”
Airmass chart for Thursday 31st March showing a cold (blue) northerly airmass over Ireland, originating from Scandinavia.
The colder spell may come as a bit of a surprise to some as temperatures over the last week have been well into the mid to high teens – above average for the time of year, however from Wednesday we’ll see daytime temperatures drop back down into single figures.
Meteorologist Brandon Creagh added: “It’ll be important to bring plants indoors that are sensitive to cold. Also, farmers and gardeners should be aware that growing conditions will not be as good as they have been recently.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
A sunny, settled and mild week ahead - Tuesday 22 March 2022
High pressure over Europe will become centred over Ireland in the coming days, bringing a good deal of dry and mild weather along with plenty of sunshine.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “The dry and bright weather that we’ve had over the past few days won’t be going anywhere this week. High pressure is going to stay very firmly in charge so we can generally expect plenty of sunshine and little or no rain.”
“Some very weak fronts will drift into western and northern areas later this week so it’ll be a bit cloudier there at times with a few spots of drizzle but any accumulations will be small. So, even though it won’t be wall-to-wall sunshine, it will be very pleasant still.”
Daytime temperatures will be on the mild side for March and at night temperatures will drop into the low single figures, so a few patches of grass frost are still possible, especially when the skies are clear.
Aoife continued: “It’s the daytime temperatures that are notable though. The average maximum temperatures for this time of year are around 11 or 12 degrees, but the combination of a relatively mild airmass and good spells of sunshine mean that top temperatures this week will widely get into the mid-teens, even hitting the high teens at times.”
This current spell of settled weather looks to last into at least this weekend. Aoife explained: “Although there’s a bit of uncertainty later this weekend, there’s no real sign of this high pressure breaking down until early next week at least. So, this really lovely spell of spring weather won’t be going anywhere too quickly.”
UV and Pollen forecasts for 2022 begin this week
With spring in full force and plenty of sunshine across the country this week, pollen and UV levels will start to increase. You can now find the latest UV and pollen forecasts for 3 days ahead on the Met Éireann website and app.
For more information on staying safe in the sun please visit our UV Index page.
St. Patrick's Day Weather - Wednesday 16th March 2022
For the latest on the weather over the long St. Patrick’s Day Bank Holiday weekend please see here.
An unsettled weekend in store - Thursday 10th March 2022
After a changeable week, our weather will remain mixed as we head into the weekend with the potential for heavy rain in some places but also some drier and brighter weather too.
Met Éireann Meteorologist Emer Flood said: “An active jet stream will continue to steer Atlantic low-pressure systems in our direction over the coming days, these will bring spells of heavy rain and strong winds at times.
“Heavy rain will move into the southwest on Thursday night, becoming widespread Friday morning which may lead to localised surface flooding. There is also potential for further heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend with the possibility of warnings being issued. We’re advising everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast for the coming days.”
A yellow rain warning is in place for many southern and western counties from 15:00 on Saturday afternoon until around midnight, where heavy rain along with strong winds will bring a risk of flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
On Friday, rain will be quite widespread and heavy in places, slowly clearing northeastwards in the afternoon. This will be followed by heavy showers with the potential for thunderstorms and hail, which could lead to some localised flooding and hazardous driving conditions.
Some heavy or prolonged showers will continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Otherwise, Saturday will start off dry and bright in many areas. However later in the day a low-pressure system will approach from the southwest, with cloud building and winds strengthening as rain arrives across the southern half of the country by evening. Rain may turn to sleet or snow in parts, especially over high ground. Sunday will be wet and windy for many as this same low-pressure system slowly pushes north over Ireland with further falls of sleet or snow possible locally.
Looking ahead to next week there are signs of a quieter and more settled spell on Monday and Tuesday, though this may be short-lived as things once again turn more unsettled around midweek.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Cold snap to bring strong winds and snow - Wednesday 23rd February 2022
A brief cold snap on the way on Wednesday evening and Thursday, with wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow along with strong and gusty winds leading to some impacts in areas.
A cold front moving across Ireland this afternoon (Wednesday 23rd) will introduce a much colder and unstable polar maritime airmass tonight and tomorrow. Met Éireann has issued several yellow weather warnings including yellow level snow/ice and wind warnings. These warnings are in place for many northern and western counties for tonight and Thursday.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood said, “Temperatures will drop quite quickly this evening with the chance of frost and ice forming, especially for inland and rural areas.
“It’ll be windy tonight too especially in northern and western areas, this helping to drive wintry showers of snow, sleet and hail inland. Some areas especially in the northwest will see some snow accumulations of a few centimetres to lower levels, accumulations elsewhere will be mainly confined to high ground.
“It’ll remain very cold and windy across the country on Thursday with continued snow showers, this leading to treacherous driving conditions from icy stretches and reduced visibility on the roads in places. This polar maritime airmass is quite unstable so we could see some hail and lightning at times throughout Thursday too.”
Temperatures on Thursday will be limited to around 3 to 7 degrees, with the brisk northwesterly winds making it feel much colder.
The Met Office has also issued a snow and lightning warning for Northern Ireland through Wednesday and Thursday.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, Emer continued: “Following this cold spell, temperatures will recover on Friday and into the weekend with highs of around 8 to 10 degrees. Although there is some rain in the forecast over the weekend, much of this will fall overnight so there’ll be decent spell of dry and bright weather around over the weekend too.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Storm Dudley and Storm Eunice on the way this week - 15th February 2022
For the latest on Storm Dudley and Storm Eunice please see our Latest News.
See here for the latest weather warnings from Met Éireann.
Turning more unsettled this weekend and next week - Friday 11th February 2022
After what’s been a fairly settled February so far, our weather will turn increasingly unsettled over the weekend with some wet weather on the way on Sunday and early next week.
Met Éireann have issued yellow wind warnings for Donegal, Galway and Mayo and rain warnings for Cork, Kerry and Galway on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, due to spells of heavy rain and strong winds to mainly southern and western areas. It’ll stay breezy across the country on Saturday with some blustery, heavy showers, followed by a rather wet day across the country on Sunday.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Mark Bowe, said:
“Our weather has been pretty settled so far this year thanks to high pressure never being too far away. But as we head into the weekend and next week we’re going to see a change to more unsettled weather as the jet stream positions itself across Ireland – this will open the door to low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic.”
“We’re keeping a close eye on the weather forecast for Sunday, as a low pressure will swing up from the south bringing outbreaks of rain through the day. There is likely to be some heavy bursts of rain in places which could lead to some localised flooding, but there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty so it’s best to keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings, especially if you have plans this weekend.”
Currently ground conditions are either waterlogged or saturated and further rainfall over the weekend and next week will add to water levels, with the possibility of some localised flooding. You can find out more about current ground conditions here https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs.
Mark continued: “With further low-pressure systems moving our way early next week there is the potential for further spells of wet and windy weather. We’re keeping a close eye on Tuesday in particular as there are signs of heavy rain in the forecast. With ground levels already waterlogged this could lead to some localised impacts from flooding, so stay keep an eye on the latest forecast and warnings from Met Éireann for your area.”
Forecast pressure chart for Sunday 20th February at 1800 showing a band of rain and tight isobars across Ireland.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
A wet and windy end to 2021 and windy on New Years Day
The weather will continue to be quite active to the end of the year, with strong winds at times, including a windy New Year’s countdown for some.
Persistent rainfall affecting many places today, Thursday, will continue into tonight. There will be some heavy falls which bring a risk of localised flooding. A Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in effect until 5am Friday morning for Cork and Kerry, and another Yellow Level Rainfall Warning is in place for Galway and Mayo between 5pm this evening (Thursday) to 1am tonight.
It will also become windy this evening in the south, where southwest winds will increase fresh to strong, and these stronger winds will extend to all areas overnight. Winds will reach near gale force in Atlantic coastal areas, with gale warnings coming into effect for some sea areas overnight.
The strong winds will persist into the morning of New Year’s Eve, Friday, with strong and gusty southwest winds in many areas throughout the morning, reaching near gale force at times. After a mostly cloudy morning with some light rain lingering in parts, the afternoon will be largely dry with bright spells. It will be very mild, with afternoon temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.
Winds will die down to just a manly moderate breeze for the afternoon on Friday, however this calmer period will be quite short lived as winds will be strengthening again later in the evening for the night of New Year’s Eve. Southerly winds will increase fresh to strong early in the night, with strongest winds on Atlantic coasts. It will be wet in places too with outbreaks of rain moving eastwards overnight. Remaining mild overnight with lowest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees.
The weather for the first day of 2022, Saturday, will be quite blustery with showers, some of these heavy. There will be bright and sunny periods too however. It will be breezy with fresh southwest winds, windiest near western coasts with winds remaining strong there. It will continue milder than average, with highest temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees.
Image from Thursday’s 12Z run of Harmonie showing rain (top left) cloud cover (top right), wind field (bottom left) and temperatures (bottom right) for the country at midnight on New Year’s Eve:
Updated by Meteorologist Emer Flood at 3pm on 30th December 2021.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Settled and mainly dry in the run up to Christmas Day
High pressure will continue to keep our weather settled and largely dry through this weekend and into the early days of Christmas Week, though there are some signs of more unsettled weather from mid-week onwards and possibly turning colder over the Christmas weekend.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Deirdre Lowe, said: “Most of us will enjoy a spell of dry and quiet weather in the lead up to Christmas, it’ll be fairly cloudy though and some spots will see a little patchy mist or drizzle in thicker cloud. It’ll turn a bit colder over the weekend too, with daytime temperatures around 6 to 9 Celsius.”
“It’ll stay fairly cloudy during the nights which should keep frosts at bay, though the odd patch of frost can’t be ruled out where clearer skies develop.”
This settled weather will continue into the early days of next week, though it looks likely that high pressure will gradually break down from around mid-week onwards, turning our weather more unsettled as we get closer to Christmas Day. Whilst there is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast, there are some signs of colder air being dragged across the country over Christmas weekend.
Meteorologist Deirdre Lowe continued: “It’s still too early to say with certainty what weather we can expect on Christmas Day. At the moment it looks like the current blocking high pressure will be replaced by low pressure, increasing the chance of unsettled weather. There’re also some early signs of a possible cold spell over the Christmas period but it’s still very uncertain, so keep an eye on the latest Met Éireann forecast.”
The Met Éireann Podcast ‘White Christmas’ Episode
Listen back to our December 2019 White Christmas episode of The Met Éireann Podcast where Liz and Noel dig into all things snow! We hear about how often we get a white Christmas, how frequent snowfall is in general, and review some of the notable big snow events we’ve experienced in Ireland and around the world.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Winds slowly ease as Storm Barra moves away from Ireland
For the latest on Storm Barra please see our News Story.
For details on the latest forecast and warnings visit our website.
Follow us on social media for updates @meteireann
Storm depression approaching Ireland Tuesday 7th December 2021
– Updated by Meteorologist Liz Walsh at 6 pm on Sunday 5th December 2021
Storm Barra was named by Met Éireann on Sunday morning (5th December 2021) and is expected to affect Ireland during Tuesday and for a time on Wednesday. Multiple hazards will be associated with this system.
Impacts will vary depending on location but will include
An orange level wind warning has been issued for Counties Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Clare and Galway valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday, while a yellow level wind warning is in places for all other counties for the same time period. These warnings are likely to be updated and fine-tuned as we come closer to the event as the track of the storm becomes more certain.
Winds will be south to southeast in direction during the early part of the Tuesday and will gradually veer westerly as the day goes on. So the strength of the wind will be dependent on your location and exposure to that particular direction. Some heavy falls of rain are likely too during Tuesday morning, these mainly across southern and southeastern counties with spot flooding possible.
This innocuous –looking area of cloud to the south of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Eastern Canada from earlier today is the nascent site of a low pressure system that will become Storm Barra.
Image courtesy of the NOAA Geos-East Satellite.
The low pressure system will picked up by the Jet Stream and driven across the North Atlantic during Monday arriving along Ireland’s west coast on Tuesday morning. Image courtesy of ECMWF 12Z Run 5/12/2021
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Updated by Meteorologist Gerry Murphy at 4 pm on Saturday 4th December 2021
For latest advisories and warnings: https://www.met.ie/warnings/today
Summary
A deep Atlantic depression will bring very wet and windy weather across Ireland through Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be strong in all areas at times and will reach gale force in coastal areas. Severe and damaging gusts are likely. At the moment the strongest winds are expected to be in western coastal counties of Munster with storm force winds possible at times later on Tuesday.
The strengthening winds will be accompanied by a spell of heavy rain on Tuesday, followed by heavy showers through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of the showers may be of sleet or snow on high ground.
Due to spring tides, very high waves and large surge levels, coastal flooding may occur along Munster and south Connacht coasts.
Possible Impacts
Very strong winds and damaging gusts are likely to bring disruption due to power outages, fallen trees or branches or other debris.
As well as coastal flooding, heavy rain or showers will bring localised flooding. Travel disruption is likely at times due to strong winds, poor visibility, localised flooding and poor surface conditions due to hail, sleet or possible snow on high ground.
Detailed forecast
A storm depression will develop in the mid-Atlantic on Monday as a result of dynamic forcing from the Jetstream in the upper atmosphere. The low pressure system will rapidly deepen as it tracks northeastwards over the Atlantic and approaches Ireland on a strong westerly Jetstream.
As the depression approaches Ireland, it will slow down and become relatively slow moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. The exact track and timing of the depression is not definite. At the moment it is expected to reach a minimum pressure of 952 hPa on Tuesday afternoon at round 100 nautical miles or 185 Km to the west of Ireland. The depression will slowly fill and its central pressure gradually increase as it moves slowly eastwards over Ireland through Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually clearing southeastwards through Wednesday night.
The development and track of the depression through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday is shown in the charts below.
Wind Forecast
As the depression approaches Ireland, southerly winds will strengthen through Monday night and early Tuesday with gales or strong gales developing along all Irish coasts and the Irish Sea. Cyclonic variable winds will develop as the depression moves over Ireland. Later Tuesday and through Tuesday night, very strong westerly winds will develop in western coastal counties. Currently it looks like the strongest winds will occur in western coastal counties of Munster and Co. Galway.
This is indicated on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for wind gusts and also on the deterministic forecasts below.
Rainfall Forecast
The timing of rainfall over Ireland associated with the Atlantic depression is uncertain. Current model forecast runs indicate that heavy rain will develop in the west of Ireland later on Monday night and move eastwards across the country on Tuesday morning. Showers will follow from the west on Tuesday afternoon and will continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some will be wintry, falling as hail or sleet with snow possible on high ground. There will also be a possibility of isolated thunderstorms.
Coastal Conditions
We are in a period of Spring Tides, and coastal levels are expected to be ELEVATED on Tuesday as a deep low pressure system approaches from the Atlantic resulting in the coincidence of strong winds, high wave and large surge levels. The largest surge levels are expected on Atlantic coasts. There is still uncertainty between model runs on the timing and path of the low pressure system, which will influence the surge level expected locally along the coast, and the uncertainty should reduce as future model runs become available.
Storm Arwen to bring cold & windy spell - 25th November 2021
Named by the UK Met Office, Storm Arwen will track southwards along the east coast of Scotland on England through Friday and Friday night. For Ireland, Storm Arwen will introduce strong northerly winds and a cool polar maritime air, with the strongest winds expected along northern and north-western coasts on Friday, and later in the Irish Sea.
Met Éireann have issued yellow wind warnings for counties Donegal, Sligo and Mayo for Friday afternoon into Friday night, with strong gale force 9 winds expected along northern and eastern coasts, and storm force 10 winds in the Irish Sea on Friday night. The Met Office has issued a yellow wind warning for Northern Ireland through Friday and Saturday.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Elizabeth Coleman, said “It’s going to be a cold and very windy day on Friday. We’ll see north to northwest winds peaking late Friday afternoon . Gale to strong gale force winds are forecast along north facing coasts, generating large coastal waves and spray overtopping, with northerly storm force 10 winds developing in the Irish Sea on Friday night. Strong northerly winds over land in the north and northwest could bring down some trees and power lines with travel distribution possible.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Saturday 27th November showing cold northerly winds (blue) across Ireland
Elizabeth continued: “This system will generate high seas too, in the north and west through Friday, with the storm force winds and high seas transferring to the Irish Sea on Friday night”.
Met Éireann have forecast blustery scattered showers on Friday, which will turn to sleet, mainly parts of the north with snow possible over the hills. Daytime temperatures will be limited to around 6 to 9C, but feeling colder with an added wind chill factor from the brisk northerly winds. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall close to freezing with frost expected in some areas.
It will continue cold through Saturday with winds easing later in the day with long spells of sunshine and while most areas will stay dry, there will be a few wintry showers in the north and towards the west coast.
Although it may feel like winter has arrived, milder conditions will move up over the country through Sunday and for the start of next week bring rain or showers at times but generally frost free nights.
#BeWinterReady
The unique risks brought by winter can occur suddenly and unexpectedly. Make sure you and your family are prepared for whatever the weather may bring during the winter months ahead. Visit winterready.ie or see #BeWinterReady and make sure to visit met.ie for the latest weather forecast and warnings. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Turning colder and windier later this week - 23rd November 2021
On Friday a complex area of low pressure will move down over the northern tip of Scotland which will open the door to strong winds and cool polar air set to sink down over Ireland, with the strongest winds especially affecting areas in the far north.
Met Eireann meteorologist, Mark Bowe, said “It’s going to get noticeably colder from Friday as the low pressure system over Scotland will allow very cold northerly winds to blanket Ireland on Friday and into Saturday. There is a risk of wintry showers for areas in the far north with sleet and snow possible over the hills. This will mainly affect the northern half of the country with showers and some sunny spells expected elsewhere”
Met Eireann have forecast a windy day on Friday with frequent showers. Daytime temperatures will be limited to around 6 to 9C, but the brisk northerly winds will make it feel colder. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall close to freezing for many areas with frost expected.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Saturday 27th November showing cold northerly winds (blue) across Ireland
Mark continued: “It will be windy too with strong winds and gales on exposed coasts and hills likely on Friday before easing then again on Saturday”
The Met Office has issued a yellow wind warning for Northern Ireland through Friday and Saturday, as this low pressure system is expected to bring the strongest winds to the northern part of the island. Met Éireann forecasters are keeping a close eye on the development of this system for later in the week.
#BeWinterReady
The unique risks brought by winter can occur suddenly and unexpectedly. Make sure you and your family are prepared for whatever the weather may bring during the winter months ahead. Visit winterready.ie or see #BeWinterReady and make sure to visit met.ie for the latest weather forecast and warnings. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Turning colder this weekend with the first frost on the way for many – 19th Nov 2021
After a rather mild November so far, temperatures will turn noticeably colder over the weekend with the return of overnight frosts.
On Saturday a cold front will push across Ireland introducing a much colder polar maritime airmass. This will bring daytime temperatures generally in single figures on Sunday and through next week, along with some cold nights and an increased chance of frosts.
Airmass and pressure chart for Sunday 21st November 2021 shows cooler airmass across Ireland (light blue) along with high pressure building from the Atlantic.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Liz Walsh, said:
“Tomorrow (Saturday 20th November) will start mainly dry in the south and east with some bright or sunny breaks, but it’ll be a damp start in the north and west with cloud and rain associated with a cold front. It’ll be a reversal of fortunes for the afternoon as the cold front clears the north and west, turning brighter and colder with just a few showers, but as this cold front makes its way across the country it’ll bring cloudier and wetter weather to southern and eastern areas.
“Sunday will be a cold and blustery day with some sunny spells and showers. Temperatures will be around 6 to 9 Celsius, though it’ll feel chillier in the brisk northerly winds. On Sunday night we’ll see the first widespread frost of this autumn so far, as temperatures fall close to or below freezing across the country.”
Commenting on the start of next week, Meteorologist Liz Walsh continued: “Through Sunday a large area of high pressure will build across Ireland and this will bring a good deal of dry, bright and crisp weather on Monday. Tuesday will still be a dry day though there will be more cloud in places, especially over the northern half of the country, and a few patches of drizzle. It’ll be another chilly night, though frosts will be largely confined to southern areas where clear spells are most likely”.
Chance of wintry weather next week
Commenting on the forecast into the middle of next week, Liz continued:
“It looks set to turn unsettled and colder still from around midweek. We’re keeping a close eye on some low-pressure development between Iceland and Norway which could bring windy and wet weather to Ireland later on Wednesday and perhaps the chance of some wintry showers Wednesday night and into Thursday. While it’s not unusual to get these types of weather conditions in late November, it will be a bit of shock to the system because our weather has been generally mild and benign lately.”
#BeWinterReady
The unique risks brought by winter can occur suddenly and unexpectedly. Make sure you and your family are prepared for whatever the weather may bring during the winter months ahead. Visit winterready.ie or see #BeWinterReady and make sure to visit met.ie for the latest weather forecast and warnings. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
Turning cooler for Halloween Weekend with a mixed weather in store - 29th October 2021
After a mild and wet week so far, it’ll turn cooler and drier over the first half of Halloween weekend, followed by some wet and windy weather on Sunday.
Commenting on the weather over Halloween weekend, Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy said: “Today (Friday 29th) will see a mix of bright spells and scattered showers, these will be heaviest and most frequent across western areas with brighter and drier weather across the eastern half of the country. Tomorrow (Saturday 30th) will be a bright day with good sunny spells and plenty of dry weather and just a few light showers.”
“However, through Saturday night it’ll turn wet and blustery as a low pressure moves close to Ireland.” Aoife continued: “It’ll stay unsettled on Sunday with some heavy showers or longer spells of rain around – and it’ll be a windy day too which could blow away a few witch’s hats!”
As we head into the start of November it’ll feel chillier than recent weeks with much more seasonal temperatures of around 8 to 10 Celsius and the chance of frosts increasing as temperatures overnight fall close to freezing.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Sunday 31st October 2021, showing low pressure centred over Ireland along with a cooler airmass
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Spells of wet weather this week with some impacts possible - Tuesday 26th October 2021
Low pressure will bring spells of heavy rain across parts of Ireland this week, with impacts from local flooding possible.
Met Éireann has issued a Yellow Rain warning for southern and eastern parts of the country, starting early on Wednesday and lasting until Thursday morning.
Yellow Rainfall warning for Wednesday 27th October
Meteorologist Paul Downes said: “A slow-moving band of rain will bring spells of persistent and heavy rain tonight and through tomorrow, especially across southern and eastern parts of Ireland. Around 20-40mm rain is expected, with southern and eastern areas potentially seeing higher totals – particularly the higher ground of Cork and Kerry. These high rainfall accumulations may lead to impacts in some areas, such as tricky driving conditions, delays to public transport and localised flooding.
Forecast rain from Tuesday 26th to Friday 29th October, ECMWF
Paul continued: “Further spells of wet weather are expected tomorrow night and through Thursday with another 30-50mm rain possible, once again the greatest amounts are expected across southern and eastern areas. As well as the possibility of rivers flooding locally, at this time of year the risk of surface flooding can be increased due to fallen leaves blocking drains.”
It’ll also turn a little fresher later in the week as a cooler airmass gradually pushes in across Ireland, and while the winds will generally ease later in the week, current indications suggest it may become quite unsettled again over the weekend with a spell of wet and possibly windy weather crossing the country on Sunday.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
Wet & mild spell before settled and fresher weather arrives next week – Thurs 7th October
Met Éireann have issued a yellow rain warning for western parts of the country through Thursday and Friday, as prolonged and heavy rain will likely lead to localised flooding and tricky driving conditions.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Paul Downes, said: “Whilst eastern part of the country will see some showers or rain over the next few days, it is the western half of the country that will see a spell of very wet weather with prolonged and often heavy rain. Mountainous regions in the west and southwest of the country will see the heaviest rainfall, with in excess of 70mm falling in some of these areas within 48 hours. This will lead to some localised surface and river flooding especially for hilly areas, with some disruption to transport and tricky driving conditions possible.”
A stream of tropical air will bring mild and wet weather
The reason behind the wet weather is due to a slow-moving weather front from the remnants of ex-Hurricane Sam. This weather front will stall over the western half of the country bringing a spell of prolonged rainfall to western counties, but it could edge over eastern areas at times bringing some spells of rain to eastern counties too.
Meteorologist Paul Downes continued: “Friday evening in particular will see the heaviest rainfall, although this will mainly be focused across western areas before spreading east overnight. Saturday will see another cloudy and damp start but it’ll gradually brighten up from the west as the weather front clears into the Irish Sea, with cooler, drier and brighter conditions following in the east by Saturday afternoon.”
Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be very mild around 16 to 20°C, the average October temperature in Ireland is around 10°C. Thursday and Friday night will be mild too with temperatures around 12 to 16°C. This mild tropical airmass will be replaced by a fresher polar maritime airmass through Saturday, with temperatures returning closer to normal for the time of year as well as cooler nights.
High pressure building next week
An area of high pressure will gradually build through the weekend bringing more settled and drier weather into next week. There will still be some rain and drizzle around at times, especially in the north, but for many it’ll be dry next week with some spells of Autumn sunshine.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
An unsettled week in store before high pressure returns next week - 4th October 2021
Low pressure will keep our weather unsettled this week with spells of heavy rain at times, however there are signs of more settled conditions on the way next week, as high pressure builds over the weekend.
Monday will see spells of heavy rain developing across the southern half of the country, before clearing through Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be bright and breezy with scattered showers, though turning drier through afternoon. Temperatures on both days will be around average, but it’ll turn much milder and more humid from Wednesday, due to warmer air moving across Ireland associated with ex-Hurricane Sam.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Elizabeth Coleman, said: “Currently off the east coast of the U.S., Hurricane Sam will move north-eastwards towards Iceland over the next few days, weakening as it does so. The path of ex-Hurricane Sam will allow a very mild, tropical maritime airmass to move across Ireland, bringing temperatures well above average for the time of year from Wednesday onwards.”
Location of Hurricane Sam at 00 UTC Mon October 4th on Met Éireann’s airmass and pressure analysis chart
Temperatures from mid-week onwards will be around 15 to 19 Celsius, the average maximum temperature in October is around 10°C.
Forecaster Liz Coleman continued: “The remnants of ex-Hurricane Sam will remain to the far west of Ireland, however the tropical airmass will bring a good deal of dull, cloudy and drizzly weather with mist and fog affecting hills and coasts. Some brighter spells may develop in the east at times. However, a weather front with waves will become slow-moving over western parts of Ireland on Thursday and Friday bringing some persistent falls of rain and the likelihood of local flooding – we have issued a Weather Advisory for some western areas where rain is expected to be heaviest.”
Looking ahead to the weekend, forecaster Liz Coleman continued: “The front is expected to move eastwards over the country on Friday night and Saturday before clearing into the Irish Sea. It will be followed by an area of high pressure building across Ireland for the rest of the weekend bringing more settled conditions and it will gradually turn a bit cooler again. Next week looks fairly settled with seasonal temperature values and high pressure generally dominating, though a little rain may affect some northernmost parts at first.”
Forecast path of Hurricane Sam as of October 4th 2021. Source: NOAA
Provisionally the warmest September on record
Whilst October so far has seen fairly typical Autumnal weather, the month of September was provisionally the warmest September month on record for Ireland, with mean temperatures 2.1°C above their long-term averages (LTA 1981-2010).
Munster and Leinster had their warmest September on record, with mean temperatures of 15.6°C and 15.1°C respectively. Connacht had its joint highest, matching 2006, with 14.7°C. While Ulster had its second highest 14.3°C, its highest was in 2006 with 14.4°C.
A new station temperature record of 27.9°C was recorded at Shannon Airport (in a record going back 75 years), whilst Phoenix Park in Dublin had its warmest September in 122 years, with a mean temperature of 15.8°C (2.4C above its LTA).
Dr Sandra Spillane of Met Éireann’s Climate Services said: “September 2021 has been a notably warm and dry month across the island of Ireland, with mean temperatures well above average and below average rainfall. Much of September was characterised by periods of high pressure which often brings dry and settled weather, before conditions turned more Autumnal towards the end of the month as low pressure moved across Ireland.”
The latest climate projections for Ireland signal a warming trend across all seasons into the future. More details on September 2021 in our Monthly Statement.
Rainfall, temperature and sunshine data for September 2021
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content. You can also listen to the latest national forecast on our daily podcast.
More seasonable weather on the way - 24th September 2021
After a very mild September so far, temperatures will take a noticeable dip early next week as a cold polar maritime airmass arrives across Ireland.
So far this month it has been very mild, dry and calm, with all weather stations across Ireland reporting temperatures 1.5 to 2.7°Celsius above the September average. The above average temperatures will continue into the weekend due to a mild, tropical maritime airmass, however through the second half of Sunday a much cooler, polar maritime airmass will push in across Ireland, introducing more seasonal temperatures.
Forecast pressure and airmass chart for Monday 27th September 00 UTC showing colder air (green) pushing in across Ireland
Met Éireann meteorologist, Andrew Doran-Sherlock, said: “This weekend will see the last of the above average temperatures, with some places reaching around 20 degrees Celsius. However, from Monday we’ll see a significant change with a much more autumnal feel to our weather, as temperatures dip to a cooler 12 to 15°Celsius.”
“Along with lower temperatures, it’ll turn quite unsettled too with spells of rain and heavy showers along with some windy conditions, which current indications suggest will persist through much of next week.”
Met Éireann are encouraging people to keep a close eye on the forecast this weekend and into next week as spells of heavy rain and showers could lead to hazardous weather conditions in some areas, with the potential for some localised flooding and tricky driving conditions.
Why the change in weather?
Currently the jet stream – the core of strong winds that lies over the boundary between the warmer air to the south and the colder air to the north – is lying to the north of Ireland. As a deep depression develops in the mid-Atlantic later this weekend, the jet stream will wrap around the south of the depression, allowing colder air to sink down from the north over Ireland.
Andrew continued: “The change in weather from next week will be quite noticeable given conditions have been rather warm and settled so far this month – it may be time to dig out the autumn layers, hats and scarves as it is going to feel much chillier.”
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
Warm spell to end with thunderstorms - 8th September 2021
The first half of this week brought warm and dry weather across Ireland, however the second half of the week will turn more unsettled and less warm along with the chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures this week peaked at 28.3°C in Durrow, Co. Laois on Tuesday – this is provisionally the first time a temperature above 28°C has been recorded in Ireland on a September day in 30 years. The last time temperatures reached 28°C was on 5th September 1991, with 28.4°C at Valentia, Co. Kerry. Temperatures of 28°C or higher have only occurred three times in September since Met Éireann’s digital records began in the 1960’s.
The average maximum temperature for Ireland during September is around 17°C, while the average minimum temperature is 9°C. The highest September maximum temperature on record in Ireland is 29.1°C, recorded on 1st September in Kildare on Saturday 1 September 1906.
Around 10 weather stations across Ireland provisionally recorded new September maximum temperature records on Tuesday, including Sherkin Island, Claremorris and Shannon Airport.
Airmass Analysis chart from 00 UTC Sept 8th 2021
However today (Wednesday 8th) brings a change in weather conditions as the warm airmass and high pressure is replaced by a less warm, more unstable airmass. Met Éireann meteorologist Matthew Martin said: “We’ll still see temperatures reaching into the low 20’s Celsius in some areas over the next few days, but later this week and into the weekend temperatures will fall to around 16 to 19°C, which is more average for the time of year.”
“We also have a more unstable airmass moving in over the country and this will bring the chance of some heavy showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week, though pinpointing when and where the thunderstorms will occur can be a challenge.
“Whilst many areas may avoid the heavy showers and thundery downpours, where they do occur it could lead to the risk of localised flooding and disruption to transport. We’re therefore encouraging people to stay up to date with our forecasts and warnings, as well as our radar so they can keep an eye on thunderstorm development.”
Met Éireann has issued a nationwide Yellow thunderstorm warning valid from today until midday on Thursday 9th, where scattered heavy downpours and thunderstorms could lead to localised flooding in places. The Met Office has a thunderstorm warning in place for Northern Ireland on Thursday.
Commenting on the forecast for the weekend, Matthew continued: “At the moment it looks like we’ll see a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday, although these showers aren’t expected to be as heavy as what we can expect over the next few days.
“There are signs of high pressure returning next week which could bring a more settled spell, however there’s still a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast at this early stage.”
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
A very warm start to the week – 6th September 2021
Today (Monday 6th) and tomorrow will see temperatures rise into the low to mid-twenties across Ireland, before turning less warm from Wednesday.
An area of low pressure to the west of Spain has allowed very warm air from north Africa to push up across Ireland, bringing above average temperatures for September. In mid-summer this type of airmass would result in temperatures exceeding 30 Celsius in parts of Ireland, but as we approach the autumn equinox and the days are shorter – there is less time for heat to build.
Airmass Analysis chart from 00 UTC Sept 6th 2021
Met Éireann meteorologist, Matthew Martin, said: “Along with a warm southerly airmass, Ireland is influenced by high pressure over the next few days helping to keep weather fronts largely at bay. This means most places will enjoy long spells of sunshine today and tomorrow, though mist and fog may linger across some southern and eastern coasts through the day.
“Temperatures will reach around 25 Celsius today and possibly up to 27 Celsius tomorrow, with these highest temperatures expected in the midlands.”
“Not everywhere will be sunny and warm today though as parts of Ulster and Connacht will stay rather cloudy with some patchy light rain too, however tomorrow these areas will join the rest of the country with long sunny spells.”
It’ll stay quite warm overnight through the week with temperatures not falling below 15 or 16 Celsius in some places.
The average maximum temperature for Ireland during September is nearly 17°C, while the average minimum temperature is 9°C. The highest September maximum temperature on record in Ireland is 29.1°C, recorded on 1st September in Kildare on Saturday 1 September 1906.
Commenting on the forecast for the rest of the week, meteorologist Matthew Martin continued: “Wednesday will be another warm day with temperatures in the low to mid-twenties. However some heavy, scattered showers are likely to develop as an area of low pressure moves towards Ireland bringing more unstable air.
“Thursday and Friday will see the sunny spells and scattered showers continue, these could be heavy and thundery and possibly turn quite widespread, especially on Thursday. It won’t be as warm by the end of the week with temperatures falling back to around 17 to 20 Celsius.”
UV levels will be moderate in sunshine this week, be #SunSmart and follow the advice from Healthy Ireland:
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
Meteorological summer to end dry, sunny and settled - Thurs 26th Aug 2021
High pressure will continue to bring a spell of settled weather to end meteorological summer, with largely dry conditions and long spells of late summer sunshine.
Meteorologist Paul Downes said: “With high pressure firmly in place over Ireland, low pressure systems are being kept well away, maintaining the dry, warm and settled period.”
“Today (Thursday 26th August) will be the warmest day of the week with highs of 21 to 26 degrees. A weakening cold front to the northeast of Ireland will track close to eastern coasts tonight and tomorrow, introducing a slightly cooler east to northeasterly airflow for Friday and the weekend. Temperatures will still be in the high teens to low twenties generally through the weekend with good sunny spells for the most part giving a very pleasant end to the summer.”
Paul continued: “Although it’ll be dry for most this weekend, some cloud may develop along with a spot of drizzle or light shower, especially in northern areas. It’ll also feel a little cooler on exposed coasts.”
The long spells of late summer sunshine will continue well into next week, however early next week temperatures will fall closer to normal with highs in the mid to high teens due to a slightly cooler airmass originating in Scandinavia.
Analysis chart showing pressure and airmass from 06 UTC Thursday 26 August
How long will the settled spell last?
While a breakdown of the high pressure across Ireland does look to be on the cards later next week, there is still some uncertainty as it very much depends on what is happening in the Equatorial Atlantic. The global weather connection can clearly be linked as development in the tropical Atlantic region can have knock on effects in the higher latitudes, such as northern Europe. While there is currently no indication that developing storms may impact Ireland directly next week, the indirect implications can alter our weather patterns, as tropical systems take heat from the warm sea surfaces of the tropics, and release it into the atmosphere. This acts to nudge the flow and alter the speed of the jet stream, which would influence our weather patterns for northern Europe.
Satellite image showing weather developments in the Atlantic on Thurs 26th August. Source: NOAA
The sun is still strong in August and early September and UV levels will generally be moderate to high, so follow the Healthy Ireland #SunSmart steps:
Healthy Ireland SunSmart Steps
Is this an Indian Summer?
An Indian Summer is a term sometimes used to refer to a spell of warm and calm weather in autumn months, usually September to November. As we are still in meteorological summer, this current spell of weather is simply summer weather, with meteorological autumn starting on September 1.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
A warm & settled end to summer - 24th August 2021
The last full week of meteorological summer brings a spell of warm and largely dry and sunny weather across Ireland.
Explaining the reasons behind the warm and settled spell, Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy, said: “The jet stream has been displaced to the far north of Europe allowing a large area of high pressure to settle across Ireland and keeping weather fronts and low pressure away from us.
“This means we’re going to see a warm, dry and settled week with temperatures reaching widely into the low 20s Celsius, with some areas possibly seeing 25 to 26 Celsius on Wednesday and Thursday.”
Analysis chart showing pressure and airmass from 00 UTC Tuesday 24 August
This week will also see long spells of late summer sunshine, especially across inland and western areas. However, areas along eastern coasts will be cloudier at times, especially during the mornings and evenings as low cloud, mist and fog drift in from the Irish sea due to a light easterly breeze.
The sun is still strong in August and UV levels will generally be moderate to high this week, so follow the Healthy Ireland #SunSmart steps:
Healthy Ireland SunSmart Steps
Commenting on how long the warm and settled spell will last, Aoife, continued: “The area of high pressure will stick around until at least this weekend and even into next week, so it looks like this settled spell will take us into the early days of meteorological autumn, though indications suggest that temperatures next week will be closer to average, in the high teens or low twenties.”
Is this an Indian Summer?
An Indian Summer is a term sometimes used to refer to a spell of warm and calm weather in autumn months, usually September to November. As we are still in meteorological summer, this current spell of weather is simply summer weather, with meteorological autumn starting on September 1.
Whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
Heatwave - July 2021
For the latest Weather News story on the heatwave please see Met Éireann news.
Turning warmer and more settled this weekend - 27th May 2021
After a notably chilly May so far, temperatures are on the rise this weekend reaching into the high teens and possibly low 20’s Celsius in places.
Daytime temperatures across Ireland have been below average so far this month, with many stations 2°C below the May average. However, as we head into the weekend, much of Ireland will enjoy a spell of settled and warmer weather to end the month.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Aoife Kealy said: “Whilst there’s some wet weather across southern & western areas today (Thursday 27th), northern and eastern areas will enjoy a largely dry and bright day, though rain will eventually move here later this afternoon and evening. This system will gradually clear through Friday, followed by high pressure becoming well established for the weekend.
“We’ll also have southerly winds which will bring warmer air and this, in combination with the strong sun at this time of year, means we’re going to see higher temperatures into the high teens and low twenties Celsius in places.”
The highest temperature reached so far this year is 21.2° Celsius, recorded on April 1st at Valentia, Kerry. With warmer weather in store this weekend we could see temperatures come close, especially on Sunday.
Surface pressure chart for Saturday 29th May showing high pressure across Ireland
Saturday will be generally cloudy to start with patchy drizzle mainly affecting some western areas and the northeast coast. Cloud will break up through the afternoon as sunny spells develop and it’ll become dry apart from isolated showers. Temperatures will reach around 16 to 19 Celsius, possibly 20 Celsius in the best of the sunshine across eastern areas.
Sunday will be another warm and largely dry day with sunny spells for many, temperatures reaching around 17 to 21 Celsius. The highest temperatures are expected in the midlands and east in the best of the sunshine, whereas areas further west and southwest will see cloudier skies and temperatures not quite as high.
UV levels will be moderate to high over the weekend, especially in strong sunshine. You can keep an eye on the UV index for your region here and remember to take care in the sun.
On Monday rain and drizzle will push east across the country, bringing a cooler and cloudier day with highs between 13 and 17 degrees. However, it should stay and warm dry for eastern and southeastern areas with sunny spells and temperatures reaching 18 or 19 degrees. Certainty then decreases as we move into next week but current indications suggest that it will stay warm with sunny spells, though showery rain will affect some areas at times also.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
Weather for the Bank Holiday Weekend - 30 April 2021
A spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather is on the way this Bank Holiday Monday, as an active low-pressure system moves across Ireland.
Ahead of this system which will arrive in the early hours of Monday morning, Saturday and Sunday will see a mix of scattered showers and sunny spells, with temperatures below average for the time of year. An unstable northerly airmass extends across the country on Friday and Saturday, feeding in cold air and leading to some overnight frosts. On Saturday, slow-moving, scattered showers will develop through the afternoon and these could turn thundery at times along with the risk of hail. In between showers there will be good sunny spells with temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees Celsius expected. Most showers will ease through Saturday night with temperatures dipping under clear spells to around -1 to +3 degrees Celsius, leading to a frost in a few places along with mist patches.
Forecast airmass chart for Saturday 1st May showing the cold northerly airflow over Ireland. Blue colours indicate a cold airmass.
On Sunday a westerly airflow will establish across Ireland along with a slight ridge of high pressure, leading to a good deal of dry weather but still a few scattered showers could pop up in places – though these aren’t expected to be as heavy as Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will still be on the cool side around 9 to 13 degrees Celsius, but it could feel quite pleasant in long sunny spells.
Commenting on the transition to more unsettled weather on Bank Holiday Monday, Met Éireann forecaster, Andrew Doran-Sherlock, said: “Later on Sunday night cloud will push in across the country, heralding a change to much more unsettled conditions as a low-pressure system makes its way towards Ireland from the Atlantic.”
“Monday will start wet and blustery across Ireland with unseasonably strong winds developing quite widely, along with the potential for gale or near gale force winds across coastal areas. There may also be a risk of localised flooding in areas expected to see the heaviest and most persistent rain, particularly across Atlantic and northern counties.”
Andrew continued: “The low-pressure system will clear eastwards away from Ireland later on Monday, with a northerly airflow re-establishing across Ireland. This will keep temperatures below average next week, around 8 to 12 degrees Celsius and it’ll stay on the unsettled side too.”
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
A cold weekend ahead
A spell of unseasonably cold weather is forecast across Ireland this weekend, with daytime temperatures well below average and some very cold nights and widespread frosts ahead.
Met Éireann meteorologist Emer Flood, said: “We’re seeing another spell of cold weather this weekend as an arctic airmass re-establishes across the country through Friday, bringing the chance of scattered wintry showers of sleet, hail and snow over the weekend. Temperatures today (Friday 9th) will reach around 6 to 10 Celsius, followed by a very cold night with a widespread sharp frost as temperatures overnight fall to around -3 in places.
“Saturday will be another cold day with temperatures limited to around 5 to 9 Celsius, once again falling to around -3 in places overnight and another widespread frost with the risk of icy stretches.”
Forecast chart for Saturday 10th April showing a cold northerly airflow across Ireland (blue colours) that will bring below average temperatures, along with the chance of wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow.
Along with bright spells of sunshine over the weekend, the cold Arctic airmass will bring the chance of scattered wintry showers of sleet and hail, especially on Saturday. There’ll also be a risk of thunderstorms, as well as snow showers over the hills and mountains. Showers will be lighter and less widespread on Sunday.
Sharp frosts at this time of year can cause problems for gardeners, so take care to cover vulnerable plants and protect from frost damage. The cold weather can also pose challenges for farmers and so we’re encouraging farmers to keep an eye on our farming commentary.
Looking ahead to next week, meteorologist Emer Flood continued: “Later on Sunday conditions will turn less cold, as northerly winds are replaced by slightly milder westerly winds. Monday will be a cloudier day with rain spreading from the west to most areas during the day. Temperatures will be slightly up from the weekend too, with highs of around 7 to 10 Celsius.”
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
A tale of two halves this Easter Weekend
The weather in the lead up to Easter weekend will be largely dry and settled with sunny spells for most. However later on Easter Sunday we’ll see a big change as much colder air arrives across the country, introducing the chance of wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Matthew Martin, said: “High pressure will establish across Ireland in the run up to Easter, allowing a spell of settled weather lasting until the first half of Easter Sunday.
“It’ll be largely dry with sunny spells for most, though there’ll be a bit of a temperature contrast – today and Good Friday we could see highs of around 15 to 18 Celsius across southern and western areas in the best of the sunshine, whereas northern and eastern areas will be notably cooler as easterly breezes keep temperatures at around 10 to 12 Celsius. These coastal areas may also see low cloud lingering through the first part of the day. Saturday will be another dry day with good spells of sunshine and temperatures of around 10 to 13 Celsius, still feeling cooler though along northern and eastern coasts.”
Commenting on the forecast for Easter Sunday and the change to colder conditions, Matthew continued: “Easter Sunday will start dry with sunshine for most and whilst southern areas will continue to enjoy a dry and bright day, a cold front will introduce cloud and rain across the northern half of the country through the afternoon – it’s this cold front that opens the gates to very cold air from the Arctic from Easter Sunday night and through much of next week.”
Forecast chart for Monday 5th April showing a colder, northerly airflow across Ireland (blue colours) that will bring wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow across the island.
The cold airmass will introduce the chance of wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow on Easter Monday and Easter Tuesday, with temperatures limited to around 3 to 7 Celsius. Temperatures overnight will widely fall close to freezing with a touch of frost in places, which could cause problems for gardeners so take care to cover vulnerable plants and protect from frost damage.
The cold snap could also pose challenges for farmers and so we’re encouraging farmers to keep an eye on our farming commentary ahead of the cold conditions arriving later this weekend.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
Vigorous depression to bring severe winds with a cold and unsettled weather regime to follow
Update on Wednesday 10 March 15:00
A vigorous depression will track to the northwest of Ireland tonight with very strong south-westerly winds developing over Ireland, veering westerly overnight. Gales will develop around all Irish coasts with Storm Force winds expected for a time in south-western sea areas. Status Orange wind warnings are in operation for County Kerry and County Cork from 8pm today (Wednesday 11th March) until midnight with a Status Yellow Weather Warning in operation for much of the rest of the country through until 7am Thursday 11 March. See full details on our weather warnings here: https://www.met.ie/warnings/today
(Fig 1: Position of depression at 00UTC 10 March, centred to the southwest of Ireland with a central pressure of 967hPa. The low pressure system will track to the northwest of Ireland tonight bringing a swathe of very strong winds across Ireland with some severe gusts in the south and southwest expected)
In the wake of the vigorous depression a cold and unstable westerly air-flow will follow over Ireland with showery conditions and brisk winds. There will be widespread showers on Thursday, Friday and Saturday with a risk of hail and some thunderstorms. A cold polar maritime air-mass will lie over Ireland and this will allow for some wintry showers over high ground, especially on Saturday.
(Fig 2: A cold and unstable westerly air-flow will become established over Ireland on Thursday 11 March with heavy showers embedded in the flow)
(Fig 3: Many of the showers that follow will be heavy with a risk of hail and lightning. The above chart shows the risk of lightning across Ireland on Thursday 1200UTC forecast by IREPS)
Early indications are that milder weather will begin to move in for Sunday and next week with some rain or showers with a trend for high pressure to become established near Ireland by the middle of next week allowing for drier and more pleasant weather conditions to develop.
(Fig 4: Early indications are that high pressure will build in over Ireland for St. Patrick’s Day but there is still some uncertainty in the forecast)
Monday 08 March 15:00
After a rather quiet start to meteorological spring, conditions will turn much more unsettled this week with spells of wet and very windy weather on the way.
High pressure has brought largely dry and settled weather since the start of March, but as the jet stream moves over Ireland in the next few days this will steer a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems towards us.
Met Éireann meteorologist, Paul Downes, said: “Today (Monday 8th) will be the last day of the current spell of settled weather, before conditions turn widely unsettled from tomorrow with spells of wet and windy weather expected through the rest of the week.
Image: Forecast chart for 1800UTC Wednesday 10th March showing deep low to the NW of Ireland
“Although tomorrow (Tuesday 9th) will start dry, rain and strong winds will push east across the country from tomorrow afternoon, becoming widespread by early evening. Further wet and very windy weather is expected on Wednesday as a deep low-pressure system tracks to the northwest of Ireland – bringing very strong south-westerly winds and spells of heavy rain through Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.”
Met Éireann has issued a nationwide yellow wind warning from 12:00 on Wednesday, to 07:00 on Thursday, where mean wind speeds could reach 50 to 65 km/h and gusts could reach around 100km/h in exposed locations, with damaging impacts possible.
Meteorologist Paul Downes continued: “During the early hours of Thursday this low-pressure system will clear away from Ireland, introducing a colder and more unstable airmass. However, it will remain very windy into the weekend along with blustery showers, these possibly turning wintry over high ground.”
Image: Forecast chart for Friday 12th March showing cooler polar maritime airmass over UK & Ireland
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
Cold Snap Forecast Update – 8 February 2021
Updated by Matthew Martin on 08/02/2021
Monday-Wednesday: Risk of snow showers, frost and ice
A cold easterly air-flow has now become established over Ireland and over the next few days the risk of snow showers will increase with eastern counties at greatest risk. The risk of snow accumulations will increase tonight (Monday night), through tomorrow (Tuesday) and for a time on Wednesday before the main focus for snowfall risk turns to the attempted frontal breakdown from the Atlantic on Thursday and Friday.
Sea-effect snow showers
The risk of wintry showers over the next few days will be driven by what is termed the ‘sea-effect’. Similar to lake-effect snowfall that is common place in North America during winter, sea-effect snow is a term used to describe the mechanism by which showers develop over the sea during winter. Sea/Lake effect snow occurs when cold polar or arctic air flows over relatively warm water, generating convective bands of showers downwind from the body of water. These shower bands can at times become quite narrow and intense giving significant falls of snow in very localised areas whilst some adjacent areas receive very little snowfall. Convective snow showers or bands are enhanced by lift due to frictional convergence and orography over the leeward shore and other factors such as wind fetch play a critical role in determining the intensity and extent of the sea-effect snow showers or bands. In Ireland, the Irish Sea is often the origin for many of our wintry showers during an easterly or north-easterly air-flow, however, they can also form in northern sea areas and in the Celtic Sea.
Typically, the temperature difference between the water surface and the lower atmosphere (850hPa) must be at least 13°C to support convective sea-effect shower formation over the Irish Sea. At present sea-surface temperatures are around +8°C whilst forecast 850hPa temperatures are around -10°C, resulting in a 18°C differential which should be sufficient to create some snow showers over the coming days.
Fig 1: ECMWF Sea Surface Temperature forecast for Monday 00UTC February 8th 2021
Fig 2: ECMWF Forecast chart of 850hPa temperature for Monday 1200UTC February 8th 2021
Areas at greatest risk of seeing snowfall are highlighted in the white/green shades in the ECMWF forecast charts below. However, this is a rough guide and showers are likely to be more widespread than highlighted in these graphics.
Fig3: ECMWF Forecast snowfall risk Monday night to Wednesday
Thursday & Friday: Frontal snow risk
On Thursday, frontal rain-bands in the Atlantic are forecast to move towards Ireland and as they encounter the cold air in situ over Ireland further snowfall is predicted. However, there is some uncertainty as to how far these frontal bands track north-eastwards over Ireland as high pressure over Scandinavia is dominating and acting to weaken these fronts as they move into the cold air. However, current projections indicate a spell of sleet and snow spreading north-eastwards over Ireland on Thursday and into Friday bringing accumulations of snow to many areas. However, the snow may transition to rain in some southern and western parts as milder air attempts to move in from the Atlantic.
Fig 4: Forecast chart for Thursday 1200UTC 11 February 2021 shows low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure positioned over Scandinavia. Over Ireland, there is a boundary between very cold air to the east and northeast and milder air from the Atlantic with a spell of snow expected
Fig 5: Forecast rain, sleet and snow on Thursday 0600-1200UTC 11 February 2021
Fig 6: Forecast rain, sleet and snow on Thursday 1800-2359UTC 11 February 2021
At time of writing, a weather advisory is currently in operation and weather warnings are likely to be issued in the coming days.
As always, you can stay up to date with Met Éireann’s weather and warnings by monitoring the following pages on our website and please sign up for weather warning notifications on your smartphone Met.ie app.
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast
https://www.met.ie/warnings
By Meteorologist Liz Walsh, 4th Feb 2021
Our weather is expected to turn progressively colder from early on Sunday 7th February, with the cold spell now looking likely to last well into next week. The origin of the cold air over Scandinavia will bring a northeasterly or easterly component to the wind-flow over Ireland. That wind will be especially noticeable on Sunday and Monday with gusty east to northeast winds likely to produce a significant wind-chill factor.
00z Run ECMWF from 4th Feb.
Wet Bulb Potential Temperature forecast from Sunday 7th – Wednesday 10th February.
Indicates temperatures at around 1.5km (850hPa) up in the atmosphere. Below zero with precipitation = snow likely at surface.
Daytime temperatures are expected to struggle in the low single figures, generally 1 to 3 degrees Celsius, which means any frost or ice that forms at night will be slow to clear, if it clears at all, so the risk of icy roads and footpaths will increase.
ECMWF Forecast Daytime Maximum Temperatures on Sunday, Monday & Tuesday (l-r)
Snowfall is expected in the form of showers from Sunday onwards, but more especially later on Monday and during Tuesday. Any showers are likely to be restricted to eastern parts of Leinster and Ulster initially, but a few may push further inland during Tuesday.
Forecast snow for Midday Tuesday 9th Feb over 3 consecutive runs of the ECMWF model. Latest run on the left – earlier runs from Monday 3rd Feb on the right.
There is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast from Wednesday 10th February onwards, but it looks as though Atlantic frontal systems will attempt to push milder air in from the south to displace the cold air in situ over Ireland.
It is still too early to predict how energetic or vigorous these frontal systems will be, and that has a downstream effect on the impact that this clash of mild and cold air may have over Ireland. If the frontal feature is vigorous, for example, it would likely make quick progress northeastwards over the country and any associated snowfall would be a transient affair with rain following behind. However, if the frontal system has less energy as it comes towards us and starts to become slow-moving either on its approach or as it tracks over us, we could end up in a situation where some parts of Ireland could see more significant and lasting snowfall.
Whatever the case snow-ice and/or low temperature warnings are likely in the coming days for conditions from Sunday through Tuesday, and forecasts for the latter part of next week will be updated and fine-tuned as we move closer to the time.
As always, you can stay up to date with Met Éireann’s weather and warnings by monitoring the following pages on our website:
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast
https://www.met.ie/warnings
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
Unsettled weekend ahead as the battle of warm and cold air poses multiple risk-29th Jan 2021
by Paul Downes, Meteorologist.
Wet and windy weather tonight, gradually getting colder Saturday with the risk of sleet and snow increasing.
Over the coming days Ireland will lie between colder air to the north and an active zonal Atlantic pattern to the south that will feed in several lows bringing rain sleet and snow at times as well as blustery east winds.
ECMWF: WBPT, 1000-500 thickness, MSLP and 6h rain chart for Sat 06Z
River and Surface Water Flood Risk
Soils are mostly waterlogged countrywide, or at least in saturated conditions. Rivers are already elevated in the Northern half of the country, in response to appreciable rainfall over the last week. Over the coming days, multiple separate spells of precipitation will further exacerbate the flood risk across the country. Localised flooding is expected over the weekend and into next week, particularly in the Northern half of the country.
Coastal Flood Risk
We are in a period of Spring (High) Tides. The combination of Spring (High) Tides, strong onshore winds and storm surge associated with the low pressure systems to the south-west of Ireland tonight and into Saturday, is likely to increase the risk of localised coastal flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas along the East Coast (when coincident with High Tides and strong onshore winds).
Becoming wet and windy tonight. Status yellow rainfall warning issued.
The first deep area of low pressure will begin to track to the south of Ireland tonight bringing a band of rain northwards across the country. A status yellow rainfall warning will come into effect from 3am for Wicklow and Wexford with heavy rain bringing accumulations of 30 to 40mm and a risk of localized flooding overnight.
Further to this easterly winds will increase fresh to strong and gusty overnight, while there is a status yellow gale warning in effect from Valentia to Loop Head to Slyne Head. While the winds will generally remain below Status Yellow level overland they will be very strong for the less common and often less sheltered easterly direction.
Becoming cooler on Saturday with sleet and snow on higher ground.
With cold air to the north in close proximity and moving southwards gradually on Saturday morning, precipitation will turn to sleet or snow over higher ground with accumulations possibly building quite quickly. This will lead to hazardous condition, especially through the Wicklow Mountains.
The precipitation will clear southeastwards during the afternoon and the winds will ease.
Saturday night starts off cold and frosty with rain sleet and snow moving in from the west by morning.
While Saturday night will start off cold with some clear spells and an early frost, leading to icy patches, in many northern parts, a further spell of rain, sleet and snow will cross the country early on Sunday.
Greatest risk of snow in northern parts
The northern half of the country looks likely to see the greatest risk of sleet and snow with some accumulations, however warmer temperatures in the south will slowly move northwards with sleet and snow gradually transitioning back to rain in most areas. It will be a cold day however with afternoon highs of just 1 to 4 degrees in most areas, while Munster will remain warmer.
While an advisory has been issued for the weekend, further weather warning are likely and our warnings page should be monitored for updates.
For the most accurate and up to date 7-day, hourly forecast for your local area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for extra weather and climate content.
But whatever the weather please follow the public health advice and help keep everybody safe from COVID-19.
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) - January 2021
By Climatologist Paul Moore
When a weakened SPV goes through further disruption, it can lead to what is know as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, which refers to the reversal of the zonal winds in the Stratosphere from westerly to easterly, along with a rapid jump in temperatures in the winter polar stratosphere that leads to a complete breakdown of the SPV. A SSW is now defined to have happened when the mean zonal wind (ZW) at 60°N and 10hPa (approx. 30km high) reverses to easterly. A SSW event usually has a significant impact on the tropospheric weather patterns in the mid latitudes. Following a SSW, there can be an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jetstream with associated cold conditions over northern Europe and these impacts can be long lasting. Every SSW is different and less than half of them lead to colder conditions in Ireland. For example, the SSW in February 2018 led to the ‘beast from the east’ and storm Emma, whereas the SSW in January 2019 had no significant impact here, due to the easterly winds not propagating down into the troposphere from the stratosphere. See more about the 2018 SSW event in a report on Storm Emma here.
The current state and forecast for the SPV
The SPV has been below average strength through most of December 2020 (pink line—left panel below) and is forecast to continue weakening (orange line –left panel below) to below zero m/s, which means changing from westerly to easterly. This signifies a technical SSW. The mean zonal winds at the bottom of the stratosphere have also been at very low levels (pink line— right panel below), and are forecast to decrease to record low levels over the next week (orange line– right panel below). This has been, and continues to be a contributing factor in the blocking high pressure systems we have seen in our region lately. The lack of westerly momentum at the bottom of the stratosphere helps to slow down the North Atlantic jetstream in the troposphere and leads to it meandering like a river, north to south, resulting in a more blocked pattern in the mid latitudes. https:// acd–ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh
What this reversal looks like can be seen in the below charts. These show the zonal mean wind averaged around the globe at each latitude line. The orange and red colours signify westerly winds and the blue signify easterly winds, with the numbers on each contour showing the m/s value. The values on the x-axis represent latitude, with EQ meaning the Equator. The values on the y-axis represent height in hPa. For example 10 hPa is approximately 30km high and is in the stratosphere, where as 200 hPa is approximately 10km high and is the top of the troposphere. On the 29th December 2020 (left panel below) the zonal winds high up in the stratosphere between 60 and 90N were between 20 and 60 m/s westerly and the sub-tropical jetstream, at 30N and 200hPa height was at 40m/s westerly. The forecast for the 5th January 2021 (right panel below) show the polar stratospheric winds have reversed to between 20 and 40 m/s easterly and are beginning to propagate down into the lower stratosphere. The sub-tropical jetstream averaged around the whole globe has intensified to 50 m/s. https://www.geo.fu–berlin.de/ en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html
In the below charts, looking down from a northern hemisphere point of view at the 10 hPa height level (at the same times as above) the temperatures are represented by colours, with the °C values on the left and the geopotential height is represented by contours. On the 29th December 2020 (left panel below), the already weakened polar vortex, with its low pressure centre just to the northwest of Scandinavia, is surrounded by tightly packed height contours representing the strong westerly winds rotating anticlockwise around the vortex. The ZW at that stage was 25.2 m/s and can be seen at the bottom of the chart. There is already a strong warming signal over Siberia represented by the red colours. On the forecast chart for the 5th January 2021 (right panel below) the warming signal and associated high pressure has worked its way around and is penetrating into the polar vortex, pushing it further away from the north pole and almost splitting it. The more this high pressure pushes in over the north pole, the more the ZW changes from westerly to easterly. The ZW has reversed to easterly at this stage, shown by the -3.2 m/s at the bottom of the chart.
It is uncertain how this will affect our weather in the coming weeks as we are already in a very blocked setup. It could kick-start the westerly momentum in our region, at least temporarily, as the SPV is pushed over Scandinavia, leading to a strengthening of the North Atlantic jetstream, resulting in a more typical winter weather pattern for Ireland. It could also prolong and intensify the high latitude blocked setup leading to cold polar air masses flooding south into northern Europe or elsewhere in the mid latitudes.
Monthly Weather Forecast
Met Éireann are now issuing monthly forecasts twice a week, at 5pm every Tuesday and Friday, beginning 5th January. It will be available here in the Forecast menu. Monthly forecasting covers the time range of around 10 to 40 days ahead and is really more correctly described as sub-seasonal or extended-range. It is a time scale in between medium-range weather forecasting (10-day)* and seasonal forecasting (3 monthly).
Forecasts