Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 18 JANUARY 2022
Week 1 (Friday 21 January to Thursday 27 January)
High pressure will be the main influence of our weather for week 1. This indicates dry and settled conditions with precipitation amounts well below average for this time of year. Mean air temperatures are expected to be average over the south and southeast of the country, however encroaching cloud will keep mean air temperatures slightly above average over the north and northwest. Frost and fog are likely to feature at night.
Week 2 (Friday 28 January to Thursday 03 February)
High pressure extending from the mid Atlantic will continue to influence our weather in week 2. Dry and settled conditions will continue for week 2 with mean air temperatures expected to be slightly above average for this time of year. Precipitation amounts are expected to be below average for most of the country with the exception of the very north of the country where rainfall will be average or slightly above. Frost and fog are also likely to continue to be a feature of our weather.
Week 3 (Friday 04 February to Thursday 10 February)
Uncertainty in the forecast increases as we move into week 3, with current indications suggesting that high pressure will slip away to the south introducing a west to southwest airflow. This in turn will allow fronts to affect the north and west of the country with precipitation totals expected to be slight above average. Mean air temperatures will continue be slightly above average. Forecast confidence will be low as high pressure declines.
Week 4 (Friday 11 February to Thursday 17 February)
By week 4, the centre of the high pressure looks set to pull away towards the continent, with a southwesterly airflow becoming established over the county. This will introduce more unsettled conditions from the Atlantic with above average precipitation amounts expected. Mean air temperatures will continue to be slight above average for the period.