Extended Range Forecast

The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.

Images: Shutterstock and Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018

Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018

 

MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2025

Week 1 (Monday 17 February to Sunday 23 February)

Low Pressure looks set to be the dominant feature of Ireland’s weather during the week bringing unsettled, wet and often windy conditions. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be well above average with a strong signal for a southerly air-flow. It is expected to be much wetter than normal, especially across the south and west of the country.

Week 2 (Monday 24 February to Sunday 02 March)

There remains a signal for Low Pressure to be fairly dominant in Forecast Week 2, bringing rather unsettled and changeable weather as we move into the beginning of March. Mean air temperatures are likely to trend a few degrees above the seasonal average. Current indications are for wetter than normal conditions across Ireland during the week.

Week 3 (Monday 03 March to Sunday 09 March)

At Forecast Week 3, there remains a signal for unsettled weather to prevail across Ireland with Low Pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic at times. It is likely to remain milder than normal with mean air temperatures a degree or two above the March climatological average. Wetter than normal conditions are forecast with the greatest wet anomalies expected in the south of the country.

Week 4 (Monday 10 March to Sunday 16 March)

Forecast confidence is lower at Forecast Week 4 and into the middle days of March. However, there remains a signal for rather changeable weather conditions with frontal bands of rain and showers likely to move in from the Atlantic at times. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be above normal whilst there is a signal for higher than average rainfall amounts across the country.

 


SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR March, April, and May(MAM) 

 

The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MAM period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending below average overall.

Mean temperatures during MAM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average over the three-month period. March may see temperatures over Ireland trending 1.0 to 2.0°C above average.

The rainfall forecast is less certain, though there is the potential for drier spells, especially in April.

The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during MAM, trending 0.5 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal.