The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 11 OCTOBER 2024
Week 1 (Monday 14 October to Sunday 20 October)
For week 1, there is a signal for low pressure to be dominant in the north Atlantic and over Ireland with high pressure over mainland Europe. This will generate a southwesterly airflow over Ireland with above average temperatures expected. Unsettled conditions are indicated with showers or spells of rain expected as there is a signal for higher than average precipitation.
Week 2 (Monday 21 October to Sunday 27 October)
Week 2 shows a signal for high pressure over Europe to extend over Ireland bringing higher than average temperatures. There is also a weak signal for higher than average rainfall amounts over the western half of the country during week 2.
Week 3 (Monday 28 October to Sunday 03 November)
Uncertainty increases into week 3, with a weak signal for high pressure over Ireland to continue. There is also a signal for lower than average rainfall and around average temperatures for late October.
Week 4 (Monday 04 November to Sunday 10 November)
Further uncertainty into week 4 with no clear signal for low or high pressure to dominate. Temperatures will be around average for the beginning of November with a slight signal for higher than average rainfall in the southwest.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 2024 (OND)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the OND period is for slightly above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending near average overall.
Mean temperatures during OND are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average over the three month period. However, there is an increased likelihood of colder periods, especially during December.
The rainfall forecast is less certain with no clear signal for above or below average rainfall overall. There is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months with a slightly higher likelihood of drier periods during December.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the North Atlantic are expected to trend slightly above average during OND, ranging between 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be closest to normal in October, with a gradual increase in anomalies through November and December.