Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 29 NOVEMBER 2022
Week 1 (Friday 02 December to Thursday 08 December)
High pressure to our north and east will keep conditions during this period largely settled. Ireland will lie in a predominantly easterly airflow. As a result, conditions will be drier than normal for most areas, but more frequent showers will affect eastern areas, leading to slightly above average rainfall there. This easterly airflow will also draw colder air from continental Europe over Ireland, and as a result, air temperatures will be normal or slightly below. With lighter winds and colder temperatures, overnight frosts are likely with mist and fog possible too.
Week 2 (Friday 09 December to Thursday 15 December)
Ireland looks likely to remain in a mostly easterly airflow for week 2, with little change to the overall conditions. Showers will continue most frequent in the east and southeast with rainfall totals slightly above normal there. Elsewhere will remain drier than average. Conditions will also be colder than average nationwide for the period, with continued potential for frosty nights.
Week 3 (Friday 16 December to Thursday 22 December)
While uncertainty increases for week 3, indications suggest that conditions will remain similar with an easterly airflow over Ireland. This will continue to bring slightly above average rainfall to the east and southeast while other areas will remain drier than normal. Temperatures will be around normal or just below normal.
Week 4 (Friday 23 December to Thursday 29 December)
There is a large amount of uncertainty in week 4 but there is a weak signal for similar conditions once again. Rainfall is indicated to be below average away from eastern areas with temperatures trending towards normal nationwide.