Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 28 JUNE 2022
Week 1 (Friday 01 July to Thursday 07 July)
Over the next week a ridge of high pressure will build in from the west, however in the northwesterly airflow it will remain cooler than average over much of Connacht and west Ulster, with average temperatures elsewhere. In contrast to this past week it will be drier that average across the country. The potential for hazardous conditions in the coming week will be low.
Week 2 (Friday 08 July to Thursday 14 July)
In week 2, high pressure will build to the west of Ireland continuing drier than average conditions and temperature in the south and southwest of the country will be slightly above average while the rest of the country will have near average temperatures and the airflow will be quite slack. The potential for hazards should remain low.
Week 3 (Friday 15 July to Thursday 21 July)
In Week three overall the pattern will tend towards average for the time of year, a weakening high pressure to the northeast of Ireland the predominantly easterly airflow should maintain below average rainfall, however temperatures will fall closer to average. The potential for hazards should remain low.
Week 4 (Friday 22 July to Thursday 28 July)
By week 4, low pressure will return to the west of Ireland providing a southerly airflow over the country. Slightly above average rainfall is expected in some southern and eastern coastal counties, with near average rainfall elsewhere, while temperatures will remain near average. While there will be above average rainfall in some parts, the potential for hazardous conditions should remain low.