The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 19 APRIL 2024
Week 1 (Monday 22 April to Sunday 28 April)
The trend for much lower than average rainfall will persist for week 1 with an area of high pressure pushing in across the country. Mean temperatures will be around or slightly above normal for this time of year. No impactful weather is expected with this settled setup.
Week 2 (Monday 29 April to Sunday 05 May)
Week 2 should again bring drier than average conditions with around normal mean air temperatures in across the country as indications that pressure will remain slightly higher than average with settled upper atmospheric conditions too.
Week 3 (Monday 06 May to Sunday 12 May)
High pressure looks to remain but confidence is lowering this far out. Around average temperatures are expected and it’s to remain slightly drier than average too.
Week 4 (Monday 13 May to Sunday 19 May)
Perhaps a more neutral regime for week 4 with average temperatures but slightly wetter than normal weather overall. Continuing dry weather for some but overall the suggestion is that conditions will gradually deteriorate.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY, JUNE AND JULY 2024 (MJJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MJJ period is for above average temperatures while rainfall is likely to be close to average.
Mean temperatures during MJJ are signalled to be above average overall, with temperatures during all three months likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The highest chance of above average temperatures will be in the east and southeast.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with the potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months, leading to near average rainfall.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during MJJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. The highest anomalies are expected in the Irish Sea.