The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 06 FEBRUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 09 February to Sunday 15 February)
Low Pressure will continue to be the main driver of Ireland’s weather during the week bringing unsettled weather conditions. Precipitation totals are expected to continue above average across the country, especially in the east and south. After a relatively mild start to the week there is the possibility for colder conditions towards the end of the week.
Week 2 (Monday 16 February to Sunday 22 February)
At Forecast Week 2, there remains a signal for Low Pressure to be a dominant feature of Ireland’s weather with the likelihood of conditions staying unsettled. Precipitation totals are expected to remain above the climatological average. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be near the seasonal average.
Week 3 (Monday 23 February to Sunday 01 March)
At Forecast Week 3, there are tentative signs that High Pressure will have a greater influence over Ireland’s weather bringing more settled conditions than in the preceding weeks. Precipitation amounts are expected to be close to the climatological average. There is a trend in the forecast for above average temperatures.
Week 4 (Monday 02 March to Sunday 08 March)
At Forecast week 4, there is a slight trend towards High Pressure being the more dominant feature of the weather over Ireland and northern Europe. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below the March weekly average. There is an equal likelihood of temperatures being above or below normal.
Seasonal Outlook for February March April 2026 (FMA):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the FMA period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain, but there is a signal for wetter than average spells of weather, particularly in February.
Mean temperatures during FMA are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods are likely to still occur, especially during February.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall. This signal is strongest in February, indicating the potential for a wet end to meteorological winter. A slight signal for drier conditions increases by April. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of FMA.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.