The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 26 APRIL 2024
Week 1 (Monday 29 April to Sunday 05 May)
Lower pressures are signalled to take a more southerly track with higher pressures favoured to the north of Ireland during this period. Wetter than average conditions are forecasted across midland, southern and eastern areas whilst near or drier than average conditions are signalled for western and northwestern parts. Mean temperatures look likely to be above average.
Week 2 (Monday 06 May to Sunday 12 May)
High pressure is signalled to the west of Ireland with low pressure favoured to the east over Scandinavia and the northeastern European continent during Week 2. This would tend to create a cool and dry northerly airflow over Ireland once again, similar to what we have just experienced through mid-April. Precipitation is signalled to be below average during this period with mean temperatures close to the average for early May.
Week 3 (Monday 13 May to Sunday 19 May)
High pressure looks likely to be maintained to the west or northwest of Ireland sustaining a northerly or northeasterly airflow over Ireland during Week 3. Drier than average conditions combined with near average mean temperatures are indicated.
Week 4 (Monday 20 May to Sunday 26 May)
There is no strong signal towards high or low pressure for this period at this timescale. A weak signal for wetter than average conditions in the south is hinted at, with neutral or average precipitation elsewhere. Mean temperatures look likely to remain close to the average for late May.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY, JUNE AND JULY 2024 (MJJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MJJ period is for above average temperatures while rainfall is likely to be close to average.
Mean temperatures during MJJ are signalled to be above average overall, with temperatures during all three months likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The highest chance of above average temperatures will be in the east and southeast.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with the potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months, leading to near average rainfall.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during MJJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. The highest anomalies are expected in the Irish Sea.