The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: Tuesday 14th April 2026
Week 1 – Monday 20th April to Sunday 26th April
Week 1 indicates a strong signal for low pressure to the southwest, dominating conditions. This low pressure system will bring predominantly unsettled conditions with higher than average rainfall signalled across the country. Mean air temperatures in week 1 are signalling normal temperatures for the time of year.
Week 2 – Monday 27th April to Sunday 03rd May
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a slight signal for unsettled conditions to continue. While there is no signal for higher or lower pressure to dominate conditions, there is a signal for wetter than average conditions to continue across much of the country. Mean air temperatures in week 2 look to be above normal for the time of year.
Week 3 – Monday 04th May to Sunday 10th May
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. There is a slight signal for low pressure in the Atlantic to influence conditions this week. The precipitation anomaly is signalling above average rainfall once again in week 3. Meanwhile, mean air temperatures are trending closer to normal this week.
Week 4 – Monday 11th May to Sunday 17th May
In week 4, the forecast confidence is low. There isn’t much change indicated this week with low pressure still signalled to dominate conditions bringing wetter than average conditions alongside average mean air temperatures.
Seasonal Outlook for May, June and July (MJJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MJJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending near average overall.
Mean temperatures during MJJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through June and July.
The rainfall forecast is less certain with no clear signal for above or below average rainfall overall. There is potential for both wetter and drier spells within the three months.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during MJJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.