The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 10 FEBRUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 16 February to Sunday 22 February)
From 16th to 22nd February, Low pressure will dominate the weather over Ireland. Bands of rain and showers will move eastwards over Ireland with rainfall amounts expected to be above average. It will be quite cold with temperatures around average or slightly below average.
Week 2 (Monday 23 February to Sunday 01 March)
From 23rd February to 2nd March, it looks like atmospheric pressure will build over Ireland. Temperatures are likely to be above normal and rainfall amounts below normal for late February.
Week 3 (Monday 02 March to Sunday 08 March)
From 2nd to 9th March, it looks like high pressure will continue to dominate. So, rainfall amounts should continue below normal and mean temperatures continue above normal.
Week 4 (Monday 09 March to Sunday 15 March)
From 9th to 16th March, there is a slight bias towards high pressure indicated. This suggests that it will be drier than average, though some rain or showers may occur at times. Mean temperatures are expected to be around average.
Seasonal Outlook for March, April and May (MAM)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MAM period is for above average temperatures. There is potential for wetter than average conditions through the three months, particularly in March.
Mean temperatures during MAM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through the period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain but there is potential for wetter than average conditions through MAM. There is a signal for wetter than normal conditions in March with potential then for both wetter and drier than normal conditions through April and May.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during MAM, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal during May.