The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: Friday 17th April 2026
Week 1 – Monday 20th April to Sunday 26th April
Overall confidence for week 1 is high. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than average as well as drier than average. A slightly weaker signal for precipitation is seen on the eastern side of Ireland, this is due to a signal for high pressure to become established. With an easterly flow, precipitation may move in over Eastern parts at times.
Week 2 – Monday 27th April to Sunday 03rd May
Going into week 2, confidence is lower. While there is no dominating signal for temperature, high pressure is expected to remain. Precipitation amounts are also expected to be lower than average across the country.
Week 3 – Monday 04th May to Sunday 10th May
Uncertainty increases in the forecast going into week 3. For both pressure and temperature, there is no signal for an anomalous trend. Meanwhile, the precipitation anomaly shows a signal for wetter weather or higher than average precipitation along the west coast of Ireland indicating a possible return to more unsettled weather.
Week 4 – Monday 11th May to Sunday 17th May
In week 4, confidence in the forecast is low. Temperature anomalies remain average for the time of year with no signal of anomalous trends occurring. Likewise, there is no indicative signal for pressure. However, a slight signal for higher pressure is present to the south-west of Ireland. There is a slight signal that precipitation will be higher than the average over northern fringes, while the rest of the country stays average.
Seasonal Outlook for May, June and July (MJJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MJJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending near average overall.
Mean temperatures during MJJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through June and July.
The rainfall forecast is less certain with no clear signal for above or below average rainfall overall. There is potential for both wetter and drier spells within the three months.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during MJJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.