Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 27 JANUARY 2023
Week 1 (Monday 30 January to Sunday 05 February)
High pressure will trend to the south of Ireland during Week 1, allowing a westerly airflow to be dominant across Ireland during the week. With lower pressure moving to the north of Ireland, trailing fronts will affect Ireland this week with some rainfall and spells of breezy weather expected. However pressure will generally trend higher than average over Ireland, this will weaken the frontal activity. It will be drier than normal in the south and east, with rainfall amounts trending close to average or a little above elsewhere, with the most rainfall in the northwest. No warnings or severe weather is expected. Temperatures will trend above average by around one degree.
Week 2 (Monday 06 February to Sunday 12 February)
High pressure will lose its influence over Ireland during Week 2 with low pressure being the main feature of our weather, primarily located near to the north of Ireland. This week will be unsettled with fronts moving across Ireland in a mobile westerly airflow bringing spells of wet and possibly windy weather. Cyclone centres may pass close to Ireland, and weather warnings are possible during this period. Higher than normal rainfall is expected, with totals highest along the western half of the country. Temperatures will be average for the time of year.
Week 3 (Monday 13 February to Sunday 19 February)
There remains a signal for low pressure to be dominant near Ireland during Week 3, with the airflow across Ireland most likely remaining westerly. This suggests that the weather will remain unsettled during this week, with fronts or low pressure systems approaching Ireland from the Atlantic. There a signal for wetter than normal conditions. Weather warnings are possible in this set up. Temperatures will likely be average.
Week 4 (Monday 20 February to Sunday 26 February)
In Week 4, there is a weak signal for high pressure to become more dominant to the east of Ireland, with some influence over Ireland. In this set up, the weather would not be as unsettled as that of Week 2 or 3, however some fronts will likely still push into Ireland in a southwesterly airflow bringing near average rainfall. Temperatures signalled to be near average or above.