The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 18 OCTOBER 2024
Week 1 (Monday 21 October to Sunday 27 October)
For week 1. High pressure is signalled to be situated to the southwest of Ireland, leading to below average precipitation amounts for most areas, however some parts of the northwest are signalled to see close to average or slightly above average precipitation amounts. Temperatures are signalled to run above average for the time of year.
Week 2 (Monday 28 October to Sunday 03 November)
Week 2 continues to show a signal for high pressure to remain nearby, keeping precipitation amounts below average for the time of year countrywide. However, temperatures are signalled to range around average for late October into early November.
Week 3 (Monday 04 November to Sunday 10 November)
Confidence in the forecast decreases as we head into week 3, however the current signal is for low pressure to dominate. Temperatures are signalled to remain around average for the time of year and precipitation amounts are likely to run above average in most areas but parts of the west and northwest are signalled to see precipitation amounts around average
Week 4 (Monday 11 November to Sunday 17 November)
Confidence in the forecast decreases further as we go into week 4. The current signal is for low pressure to dominate our weather and as a result precipitation amounts are signalled to range above average also countrywide. Temperatures are signalled to range slightly above average for the time of year.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR November, December, 2024 and January 2025 (NDJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending slightly below average overall.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average over the three month period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, though there is the potential for drier spells, especially in December.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be average to slightly above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 0.5°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies later in the period.