Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED WEDNESDAY 31 MAY 2023
Week 1 (Friday 02 June to Thursday 08 June)
High pressure centred to the northwest of Ireland will feed in an easterly airflow over the country. This will bring in dry conditions with just a chance of some precipitation towards the end of the period. Confidence is high that it will be warmer than normal in most areas too, especially in western parts with some coastal fringes of the east seeing closer to average values. The upper air remains stable too.
Week 2 (Friday 09 June to Thursday 15 June)
While high pressure is still likely to the north of Ireland, it is declining a bit as low pressure in southern Europe edges northwards. It still looks like there will be an easterly airflow for some of the period which will bring in slightly above average temperatures to the east and a few degrees warmer overall compared to normal in the west. It will also remain drier than normal with growth increasingly restricted.
Week 3 (Friday 16 June to Thursday 22 June)
A change to more unsettled conditions looks likely at this stage as low pressure has more of an influence and the upper air becomes more unstable. In fact, it looks probably that it will average out slightly wetter than normal. Overall it looks like temperatures will be marginally above normal in most areas, especially in the southwest of the country.
Week 4 (Friday 23 June to Thursday 29 June)
Confidence is low at this stage. There is a weak signal that it will be slightly wetter than average and still slightly warmer than usual for late June. Pressure is likely to be low in the near Atlantic which will bring in some showers at times.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST (JJA)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during summer is for above average temperatures with near average rainfall overall. Above average temperatures are very likely for Ireland over the summer season with the likelihood of above average temperatures increasing as the season progresses. The mean temperatures are forecast to be between 0.5 and 1.0 °C above average countrywide. The rainfall signal is less certain, with an equal possibility of slightly above average rainfall or slightly below average rainfall over the three month period. The wettest part of the season is signalled for June, with July and August drier overall. The sea surface temperatures around the Irish coasts and over the Atlantic to the southwest and south of Ireland are very likely to continue above average over the three month period.