The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 14/07/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 20th July to Sunday 26th July
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern throughout week 1 bringing mostly dry and settled
weather. Temperatures are expected to stay above average for the time of year with lower than average rainfall
amounts across the country.
Week 2 – Monday 27th July to Sunday 02nd August
Into week 2 certainty in the forecast decreases with no steering signal for pressure. With precpitation amounts
slightly above normal it is likely we will see a shift to more unsettled conditions. Temperatures are expected to
remain above average.
Week 3 – Monday 03rd August to Sunday 09th August
In week 3 uncertainty increases. While a slight signal for higher pressure remains to the southwest, there is no
clear indication of whether high or low pressure steering our weather patterns. As the temperature signal remains
above average it is likely that we will see a continuation of those warmer temperatures. Conditions will likely be
more settled across the country with lower than average precipaition amounts signalled, with the exception of the
northwest fringes where a signal for higher than average precipitation amounts remains.
Week 4 – Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August
There is little confidence in the forecast going into week 4, with still no clear signal for MSLP anomalies.
Temperatures remain above average, with a slightly weaker signal along western coastal fringes. No clear signal
is indicated but on the coasts and Irish Sea there is a signal for higher than average rainfall amounts indicating
that we could see scattered outbreaks of rain or showers developing.
Seasonal Outlook for July August September 2026 (JAS):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JAS period is for above-average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to be below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during JAS are signalled to be above average overall; all three months are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures is strongest in September.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during July.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to continue slightly above average during JAS, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies expected off southern and eastern coasts.