The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 09 JANUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 12 January to Sunday 18 January)
During week 1, Atlantic low pressure will dominate our weather with generally unsettled conditions as a result. There will be spells of rain and showers during the week with above average rainfall expected across the country as a result. Temperatures will increase compared to what they have been, with air temperatures around normal in the west and slightly above average in the east. However, there is still potential for some night-time frosts.
Week 2 (Monday 19 January to Sunday 25 January)
Conditions are signalled to remain unsettled during week 2 with low pressure remaining nearby and spells of rain and showers frequently affecting the country. It will be wetter than average across the country as a result, with the wettest conditions likely in the west and south. Temperatures will be slightly milder than average nationwide.
Week 3 (Monday 26 January to Sunday 01 February)
While confidence decreases for week 3, it currently looks like it will remain unsettled or mixed with Atlantic low pressure systems close to Ireland. Rainfall amounts will stay slightly higher than average, with milder than normal air temperatures likely also.
Week 4 (Monday 02 February to Sunday 08 February)
Confidence is low for week 4. Current indications suggest that conditions over Ireland will be mixed with potential for rain and showers, along with drier spells too. Rainfall amounts will be close to average as a result. Air temperatures will also return close to normal.
Seasonal Outlook for January February March 2026 (JFM):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JFM period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the potential for wetter than average conditions overall.
Mean temperatures during JFM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods, where all winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times throughout JFM, especially early on in the period.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall, especially in the north and west of Ireland. This signal increases through JFM with March indicating the highest likelihood of above average rainfall out of the three months. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of JFM.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.