The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 26 JULY 2024
Week 1 (Monday 29 July to Sunday 04 August)
Indications for week 1 are for a lot of dry weather overall but there will be rain or showers at times too, with low pressure situated to the northwest of Ireland. Lower than average rainfall amounts are expected across the country and mean air temperatures will be average or slightly higher than average for early August.
Week 2 (Monday 05 August to Sunday 11 August)
There is increasing uncertainty for week 2 with a slight signal for low pressure to the west of Ireland. Mean air temperatures are indicated to be average or slightly higher than average for the time of year and rainfall amounts are indicated to be lower than average.
Week 3 (Monday 12 August to Sunday 18 August)
While confidence in week 3 is lower there is a signal for mean air temperatures to be average or slightly higher than average in the midlands and east. Rainfall amounts are indicated to be lower than average across the country for the time of year.
Week 4 (Monday 19 August to Sunday 25 August)
In week 4 the forecast confidence is low. There is no distinct signal for either high or low pressure to dominate but there is a weak signal for higher than average temperatures to continue in the midlands and east. There is also a weak signal for rainfall amounts to be close to average across the country.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER 2024 (ASO)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the ASO period is for slightly above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending near average overall.
As mean temperatures during ASO are signalled to be above average overall, all three months are forecast to be between 0.2 and 1.0°C above normal, trending highest towards the end of the period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, though there is the potential for drier spells, especially later in the period.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be average to slightly above average during ASO, trending 0.2 to 0.5°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies expected in the south.