The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 04 OCTOBER 2024
Week 1 (Monday 07 October to Sunday 13 October)
Low pressure is expected to dominate the weather picture for the week beginning 7th October with a colder than typical airmass in place over the area. Rainfall amounts are expected to be higher in the south and southeast of the country, with marginally lower than usual rainfall amounts expected in the northwest.
Week 2 (Monday 14 October to Sunday 20 October)
The low pressure anomaly continues in to week 2, although with a weaker signal. Temperatures are expected to be around the climate norm with only slightly above normal rainfall amounts expected for all areas bar the north coast, which is signalled to be slightly drier.
Week 3 (Monday 21 October to Sunday 27 October)
A signal is in place for anticyclonic conditions to dominate through the third week of the outlook period with dry weather and temperatures around normal or slightly above for the time of year.
Week 4 (Monday 28 October to Sunday 03 November)
This high pressure anomaly then extends in to the final week of the outlook period with warmer, drier and settled weather signalled to lead us in to November.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 2024 (OND)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the OND period is for slightly above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending near average overall.
Mean temperatures during OND are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average over the three month period. However, there is an increased likelihood of colder periods, especially during December.
The rainfall forecast is less certain with no clear signal for above or below average rainfall overall. There is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months with a slightly higher likelihood of drier periods during December.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the North Atlantic are expected to trend slightly above average during OND, ranging between 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be closest to normal in October, with a gradual increase in anomalies through November and December.