Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 22 JUNE 2021
Week 1 (Friday 25 June to Thursday 01 July)
High pressure is forecast to be situated close to Ireland during this week bringing relatively benign weather conditions. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be above average for late June whilst precipitation totals are forecast to below normal. Soil moisture deficits are expected to continue to climb with increasing restriction to growth.
Week 2 (Friday 02 July to Thursday 08 July)
There is a trend towards fairly settled weather into early July with high pressure more dominant than normal. There’ll be some rain but overall rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal with mean air temperatures predicted to be above average. Soils are predicted to continue to dry out with increasing soil moisture deficits.
Week 3 (Friday 09 July to Thursday 15 July)
By Forecast Week 3, forecast confidence declines but there is a continued trend towards fairly settled weather. Air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal resulting in drier than average conditions. Mean air temperatures are currently projected to be slightly above normal.
Week 4 (Friday 16 July to Thursday 22 July)
At forecast Week 4 there remains a slight trend towards drier than normal conditions but with low confidence in the forecast. A trend towards marginally warmer than average mean air temperatures is shown.