Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2022
Week 1 (Monday 03 October to Sunday 09 October)
During this period, high pressure will generally be centred to the south of Ireland with low pressure further north. This will maintain a southwesterly airflow over the country and this airflow will steer mild, moist air over Ireland through the week. As a result, temperatures will be above average. It will also be wetter than average for most places, as Atlantic frontal systems track across us. However, parts of the southeast will be slightly drier than average as they will be more sheltered in the southwesterly flow. Rainfall warnings are possible, particularly in western areas.
Week 2 (Monday 10 October to Sunday 16 October)
High pressure will become more dominant during this period. This will bring drier and more settled conditions across Ireland. Rainfall will be around normal or slightly below. As a northwesterly airflow becomes established, temperatures will fall slightly compared to the previous week but will remain just above average.
Week 3 (Monday 17 October to Sunday 23 October)
High pressure will recede to the south once again in Week 3, with low pressure to the north beginning to have more of an influence. As a result, this week will turn more changeable with some rain and showers moving in from the west. Rainfall will be near normal generally, with the wettest conditions in the north and drier conditions further south. Temperatures will remain similar; slightly above average across the country.
Week 4 (Monday 24 October to Sunday 30 October)
There are tentative signs that high pressure will make a return once again for Week 4. Conditions will be more settled as a result, with drier than average conditions signalled nationwide. Indications suggest that temperatures will remain slightly above normal also.