The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Forecast issued Friday, 27th February 2026
Week 1 – Monday 02nd March to Sunday 08th March
High Pressure is signalled to be centred to the south-east over the European continent supporting a north-west to south-east split in the weather with wetter than average and more typically unsettled conditions focussed to the west and north-west with comparatively drier than average and more settled conditions in the east and south-east. Above average temperatures signalled overall.
Week 2 – Monday 09th March to Sunday 15th March
The high pressure signal tends to decline eastwards over central and eastern parts of the European continent, which allows Atlantic low pressure to have more of an influence over our weather during this period. Wetter than average conditions are signalled countrywide, with the strongest signal over the west and south-west while temperatures are forecast to remain above average overall. A mobile southwesterly regime is probable for this period.
Week 3 – Monday 16th March to Sunday 22nd March
Signals weaken into week 3, but there is a still a relatively robust signal for high pressure to maintain over central and eastern parts of the European continent. Slight low pressure dominance over Irealnd, but the signal is neutral over the south-eastern parts of the countrty. Slightly above average rainfall is predicted for this period overall, along with above-average temperatures.
Week 4 – Monday 23rd March to Sunday 29th March
Confidence is low for this time period, with no strong pressure anomaly signalled. There is a slight trend towards drier than average conditions and higher than average temperatures, but confidence in this forecast is quite low.
Seasonal Outlook for March, April and May (MAM)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MAM period is for above average temperatures. There is potential for wetter than average conditions through the three months, particularly in March.
Mean temperatures during MAM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through the period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain but there is potential for wetter than average conditions through MAM. There is a signal for wetter than normal conditions in March with potential then for both wetter and drier than normal conditions through April and May.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during MAM, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal during May.