Monthly forecasts can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Monthly forecast explained.
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 24 MAY 2022
Week 1 (Friday 27 May to Thursday 02 June)
For week 1 high pressure looks set to build over the weekend, leading to dry, warm, and settled conditions, with temperatures possibly reaching the low 20’s. However early next week low pressure looks set to move in from the Atlantic, bringing more unsettled conditions once again. Overall though rainfall amounts are expected to be below average for late May, and temperatures will end up around average.
Week 2 (Friday 03 June to Thursday 09 June)
Looking ahead to week 2, high pressure is once again expected to be the dominant pattern, however the signal is weaker than week 1. This means that rainfall amounts will be slightly below average, and temperatures will be close to normal.
Week 3 (Friday 10 June to Thursday 16 June)
Further ahead into week 3, high pressure look to lose most of its influence, and there is little indication for high or low pressure becoming a dominant feature for the week. This creates an uncertain picture for the week, with very little in the way of a signal for higher or lower than average precipitation, and again, temperature are expected to be around average for mid June.
Week 4 (Friday 17 June to Thursday 23 June)
By week 4, uncertainty increases again, although there is some signal for lower pressure to the northeast, and generally more unsettled conditions, and slightly above average rainfall total for mid to late June.