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Met Éireann collaborates on an EPA-funded climate change research report.


22 January 2016

Met Éireann recently contributed to a climate change research report, in collaboration with the EPA, ICHEC and UCD. The report, Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland, was written by Dr Paul Nolan, Climate Scientist at ICHEC. It provides an analysis of the impacts of global climate change on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland.

This study employed Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to dynamically downscale outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report (AR5), to Ireland.  It was funded under the EPA research programme and was carried out at ICHEC and UCD, in conjunction with Met Éireann.

The videos below are ICHEC visualisations of Met Éireann EC-EARTH climate projection data. The global projection data were downscaled to provide the regional projections in Dr Nolan's report. 

 

Findings from this study indicate that by the middle of this century:

  • Mean annual temperatures will increase by 1–1.6°C, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country.
  • Hot days will get warmer by 0.7-2.6°C compared with the baseline period.
  • Cold nights will get warmer by 1.1-3.1°C.
  • Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%.
  • The average length of the growing season will increase by over 35 days per year.
  • Significant decreases in rainfall during the spring and summer months are likely.
  • Heavy rainfall events will increase in winter and autumn.
  • The energy content of the wind is projected to decrease during spring, summer and autumn. The projected decreases are largest for summer, with values ranging from 3% to 15%.
  • Storms affecting Ireland will decrease in frequency, but increase in intensity, with increased risk of damage.

The full report is freely available here

 
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