REVIEW OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS AND INTEGRATOR SYSTEMS FOR OPERATIONAL FLUVIAL FLOOD FORECASTING IN IRELAND
Met Éireann, in collaboration with the Office of Public Works (OPW), is currently engaged in the establishment of a National Flood Forecasting and Warnings Service (NFFWS) to forecast for fluvial and coastal floods, following a Government decision in January 2016. To inform and support this task a range of existing available hydrological models and integrator systems are to be reviewed, developed and trialled for operational use.
The study was awarded to IMDC, an engineering company experienced in hydrological modelling and forecasting systems. The study started April 2018 and will last until October 2019. The study contains following stages:
- Comprehensive literature review of existing hydrological models
- Comprehensive literature review of existing integrator systems. An integrator system combines a hydrological model with real-time observed and forecasted data, starts new simulations, facilitates the visualisation of model input and output, triggers alerts and disseminates information to relevant stakeholders
- Model development for five representative catchments: Shannon, Barrow, Nore, Slaney and Moy & Killalla
- Trialling of hydrological models for fluvial flood forecasting. Models are tested on five representative catchments
- Trialling of integrator systems for fluvial flood forecasting, including a 2 month pre-operational test
Based on the literature review three hydrological models and three integrator systems will be selected for further development and trialling on the five representative catchments. Each model is first calibrated and validated, and then tested both with historic data and with real-time forecast data from a number of meteorological data-sets.
The target forecast accuracy is expressed in terms of advance warning time and flow magnitude. A model should predict the actual peak flow to within +/- 10% and 6 hours of the actual peak at the gauged forecast points, and with a lead time of greater than 24 hours.
Submissions from Providers
Providers of hydrological models and integrators systems suitable for real-time flood forecasting are kindly invited to get in contact with Met Éireann. Suitable models and integrator systems will then be included in the literature review. Your submission should reach us by 15th of June 2018.
C/O: Eoin Sherlock
Address: Met Éireann, Glasnevin Hill, Dublin 9, D09 Y921, Ireland