The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 03 MAY 2024
Week 1 (Monday 06 May to Sunday 12 May)
High pressure is going to dominate the weather on week 1, bringing mostly dry conditions for much of the time, with a mix of cloud and sunshine and mostly light winds. It’s going to gradually become warmer too, with above average temperatures expected. During midweek, some weak weather fronts will come close to the west and northwest, bringing the chance of a little light rain and drizzle. Towards the end of week 1, pressure is likely to slip a little, with the possibility of some rain and drizzle, especially in the west.
Week 2 (Monday 13 May to Sunday 19 May)
It’s likely to become more changeable through week 2 as low pressure moves closer. On the whole though, temperatures will still come in a little above the seasonal normal, and while there’ll be some rain or showers, rainfall amounts are most likely to be a little lower than average.
Week 3 (Monday 20 May to Sunday 26 May)
Week 3 is likely to be more unsettled with low pressure dominating. There’ll be some showers or spells of rain at times, with rainfall amounts likely to be above average. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, a little above in some coastal parts.
Week 4 (Monday 27 May to Sunday 02 June)
There’s a weak signal for the unsettled conditions to remain, with rainfall figures likely to come in around average and with temperatures around average to a little above.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY, JUNE AND JULY 2024 (MJJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MJJ period is for above average temperatures while rainfall is likely to be close to average.
Mean temperatures during MJJ are signalled to be above average overall, with temperatures during all three months likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The highest chance of above average temperatures will be in the east and southeast.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with the potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months, leading to near average rainfall.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during MJJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. The highest anomalies are expected in the Irish Sea.