The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 03 FEBRUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 09 February to Sunday 15 February)
During week 1, low pressure will remain the dominant feature of our weather with a predominantly east to southeast airflow across the country. This will bring continued spells of rain through the period, with conditions likely to be wetter than average for most of the country, with highest accumulations in the south and southeast. In northwestern areas, rainfall amounts will be closer to normal. Further rain warnings are possible during this week. Temperatures will remain around normal.
Week 2 (Monday 16 February to Sunday 22 February)
Indications suggest that low pressure will remain nearby during week 2, bringing further rain and showers. It will be wetter than average nationwide as a result. A more southwesterly airflow will become established, with air temperatures increasing slightly to near average or slightly above.
Week 3 (Monday 23 February to Sunday 01 March)
While uncertainty increases for week 3, current indications suggest that low pressure will remain the dominant feature of our weather with wetter than normal conditions continuing. Temperatures will be slightly above normal across the country.
Week 4 (Monday 02 March to Sunday 08 March)
Confidence is low by week 4. There is a signal that low pressure will remain close by, potentially maintaining wetter than average conditions. Temperatures are signalled to be slightly above average.
Seasonal Outlook for February March April 2026 (FMA):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the FMA period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain, but there is a signal for wetter than average spells of weather, particularly in February.
Mean temperatures during FMA are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods are likely to still occur, especially during February.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall. This signal is strongest in February, indicating the potential for a wet end to meteorological winter. A slight signal for drier conditions increases by April. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of FMA.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.